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Targeting within Universal Social Protection | 71
to focus more squarely on the noncontributory part of the social protection system where the debate over universal versus targeted benefits is most heated.
If pensions are treated as a transfer, Georgia’s fiscal system would reduce the pre- and postfiscal Gini’s by 11.2 points. 15. The EU redistribution effect does not include indirect consumption taxes and indirect price subsidies (such as subsidies for food and energy, which are important in many developing countries). However, the average reduction in equality from prefiscal (market) income to consumable income (accounting for indirect taxes and subsidies) is also 2.8 points, so the discrepancy in fiscal redistribution between high-income countries and developing countries remains. 16. The analysis considers children between ages 0 and 5 years. The maternity benefit is for women ages 15 to 49 with newborns, and the numbers of beneficiaries are calculated based on the observed country-specific fertility rates. For disability benefits, the study only considers persons with a severe disability, on the assumption that participation in employment may be challenging and may require specific support such as transportation allowances; the size of the eligible population is obtained from country-specific disability estimates from the World Health Organization’s database on estimated years living with disability. For old age, the potential beneficiary population includes persons ages 65 years and older. For children, the benefit is defined as 25 percent of the national poverty line. For maternity, the cash benefit is set at 100 percent of the national poverty line during four months around childbirth to protect the critical period when mothers and newborns are most vulnerable. For disability and old-age pensions, the amount of the benefit is 100 percent of the national poverty line. 17. See Barrientos and Lloyd-Sherlock (2017); Holmemo et al. (2020); HelpAge
International (2011); ILO (2018); IMF (2019); Packard et al. (2019); and World
Bank (2016) for further discussion of the examples in this essay. 18. Mongolia and the Islamic Republic of Iran came close with temporary programs (see Gentilini et al. 2019) and a handful of countries and economies, including
Hong Kong SAR, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; Serbia; Singapore; and
Tuvalu, initiated universal temporary COVID-19 response programs (Gentilini et al. 2020). 19. In the well-known US food stamps program (formally the Supplemental
Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP), caseloads are about 14 percent of the population in a given month. Over their lifetime, half of all US children have received support, implying that political support could be drawn from a much larger share of the population than the current caseload (Oliviera et al. 2018).
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2
Unpacking the Empirics of Targeting in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Margaret Grosh, Claudia P. Rodriguez Alas, Usama Zafar, Matthew Wai-Poi, Emil Tesliuc, and Phillippe Leite
To help illuminate the choices around whether to differentiate eligibility or benefits across the welfare distribution, it is important to understand not just the theory, but also the empirics of the trade-offs involved. There are many parts to the whole empirical story.
This chapter provides a broad overview of the coverage, incidence, and simple1 estimates of the impacts on poverty of a wide range of social assistance programming in developing countries, using the Atlas of Social Protection: Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE)2 global data set. It casts a wide net to look at emerging and developing countries with recent household survey data and all kinds of social assistance programs, irrespective of the intention to delimit the benefits or eligibility thresholds or the methods used to do so. The analysis provides benchmarking for the outcomes observed, which can be useful comparators for country-specific discussions and setting expectations for the feasibility of different scenarios. For selected observations, the data set supplements the broad picture that is observable from the survey of the programs. Thus, the chapter uses the data set to contrast program choices and outcomes, foreshadowing the deeper discussion on such choices in the subsequent chapters. The focus of the ASPIRE database is monetary welfare, whether income or consumption. Chapter 3 discusses wider concepts of welfare.
