Capita since 1990

FIGURE 2.16

Comparison of Global Regions in Decoupling Growth of GNI Per Capita from Black Carbon Emissions Per Capita since 1990

Differential of GNI p.c. and black carbon p.c. growth since 1990 (ppts) −50 50 100 0

East Asia and Pacific South AsiaEurope and Central AsiaNorth America Latin America and the CaribbeanMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

Sources: Based on Hoesly et al. 2018 and data from the Human Development Data Center, United Nations Development Programme (http://hdr.undp.org/en/data). Note: The figure shows the differential, in percentage points (ppts), between the per capita (p.c.) growth rates of gross national income (GNI) and black carbon emissions. Growth rates are calculated in comparison to 1990 levels, and the differences in growth rates were computed. In particular, the growth rates of both black carbon emissions p.c. and GNI p.c. relative to their 1990 levels were computed. Averages of the respective growth rates for 2012–14 were computed to adjust for erratic changes, and the average growth rate of GNI p.c. was then subtracted from the average growth rate of black carbon emissions p.c. The resulting statistic is the differential growth between the two growth rates, expressed in percentage points. “North America” includes Canada and the United States.

about four to nine times higher than for an equivalent change in PM2.5 mass (Janssen et al. 2011).17 The World Health Organization also classifies black carbon as being especially harmful relative to other air pollutants (Janssen et al. 2012).

Globally, open burning of biomass (including agriculture-residue burning) accounts for nearly 37 percent of global black carbon emissions (Bond et al. 2013). However, the major source of black carbon in Cairo is traffic, even during large biomass-burning events (Mahmoud et al. 2008). As opposed to decoupling of CO2, NOX, and SO2 emissions,

neither oil exporting nor oil importing economies in the Middle East and North Africa have achieved any form of decoupling of black carbon emissions from income growth.

Intraregional Differences, Regional Implications

Oil exporters decoupled more slowly than oil importers in the Middle East and North Africa. The world’s slowest decoupling rates, as presented above, are largely driven by the oil exporting countries, even though the non-oil exporting economies also show extremely low decoupling rates (as shown when splitting the sample accordingly). Although some of the region’s oil producing countries have made efforts to diversify their economies, these often included investments in downstream industries of the oil and gas sectors, such as the petrochemical sector.

Moreover, the continued provision of subsidized fuels, particularly by the oil producing countries, disincentivizes the broader adoption of sustainable alternatives—such as cleaner mobility (public transportation and noncombustion vehicles), cleaner energy production, and less-resourceintensive production and consumption patterns in general. The reasons for the region’s stubbornly high emission rates and lack of decoupling are reviewed in detail in chapter 3 but summarized here.

A failure to sufficiently decouple emissions growth from income growth has adverse implications for the climate and for residents’ exposure to hazardous particles in the air. As noted earlier, the economies of the Middle East and North Africa have either failed or succeeded only partially in decoupling emissions growth from income growth, especially when compared with other regions. Reasons for this are manifold and include high emissions from outdated vehicle fleets, low incentives to switch to alternative modes of transport such as public transportation or nonmotorized options, weak regulatory frameworks for industrial emission control, and the region’s unsustainable energy sources—about which chapter 3 (on air pollution) provides further insights. These deficiencies have also translated into only a limited decoupling between income growth and the PM levels that the region’s residents are exposed to. Only Sub-Saharan Africa has a slower rate of decoupling of income growth from PM2.5 exposure (figure 2.17).

Data limitations prevent investigation into possible decoupling processes regarding plastic consumption, marine-plastic pollution, and coastal erosion. Additional data on such possible decoupling processes would be highly desirable to help advance the “blueing” of the region’s skies and seas.