4 minute read
APPENDIX C: INTERVIEWS WITH KEY INFORMANTS
APPENDIX C
INTERVIEWS WITH KEY INFORMANTS
OVERVIEW
To shed light on some of the dynamics of water, migration, and conflict in the region, 18 key informants from different countries and backgrounds, including researchers, experts, professors, and technical engineers, were interviewed as part of this study. The interviews were administered by the West Asia-North Africa (WANA) Institute. WANA also transcribed recordings of each interview and prepared interview summaries.
Semistructured interviews were conducted both in person and virtually. Each key informant was asked a set of qualitative questions on water, conflict, and migration in the Middle East and North Africa region that pertained to his or her knowledge area. In addition, key informants who expressed interest participated in an expert elicitation that focused on three themes, detailed in box C.1.
All key informants agreed to WANA’s consent form for participation in research interviews. Anonymity and confidentiality in the aggregated findings were ensured through the use of randomized key informant codes (table C.1).
Table C.1: Key Informants Interviewed as Part of This Study
Key informant code Group Country Date of interview
KI-1 Water and energy security regional expert, Middle East and North Africa region KI-2a Research fellow, international relations and water diplomacy, Middle East and North Africa region KI-3a Water resources management expert, Mediterranean countries Jordan, Netherlands June 15, 2020
United Kingdom June 15, 2020
Italy June 16, 2020
KI-4a Agriculture and irrigation expert KI-5a Adviser, water and conflict Tunisia
June 18, 2020 Netherlands June 18, 2020
KI-6a International relations expert KI-7a Energy expert KI-8a Water and geological expert United States July 1, 2020 Jordan June 22, 2020
Jordan June 23, 2020
KI-9 Geopolitical expert Jordan
June 24, 2020 KI-10a Food security expert Lebanon July 1, 2020 KI-11a Water infrastructure specialist in refugee camps Jordan, Lebanon June 15, 2020 KI-12 Hydrology and water resources expert United Kingdom June 15, 2020 KI-13 WASH specialist Jordan June 23, 2020 KI-14 Water expert Tunisia July 16, 2020 KI-15 Host community Jordan July 19, 2020 KI-16 Host community Jordan July 19, 2020 KI-17 Host community Jordan July 19, 2020 KI-18 Journalist specializing in water issues Iraq July 29, 2020 Note: WASH = water, sanitation, and hygiene. a. Expert who agreed to take part in the expert elicitation study.
EXPERT ELICITATION
Expert elicitation is a well-vetted interview method from the applied decision and policy analysis sciences. The interviews conducted for this report centered on three themes (box C.1). This approach is based on a recent global expert elicitation on similar topics (Mach et al. 2019).
Theme 1. Relative Importance and Uncertainty of Causal Factors Driving Migration • Rank the five most important factors driving migration in the Middle East and North
Africa. [1 most important, 5 less important] • Rank the five factors for which you believe there is the most uncertainty about their influence on migration. [1 most uncertain, 5 less uncertain]
– High crime – High temperatures – Pollution – High risk from natural hazards (floods, earthquakes, dust storms) – Lack of fertile land – Lack of services – Lack of education opportunities – Lack of water access – Conflict in neighboring areas – History of violence – Crop failure/drought – Economic shocks (e.g., international financial crisis) – Corruption – Lack of employment opportunities – War
Theme 2. Relative Importance and Uncertainty of Causal Factors Driving Conflict • Rank the five most important factors driving armed conflict in the Middle East and
North Africa. [1 most important, 5 less important] • Rank the five factors for which you believe there is the most uncertainty about their influence on armed conflict. [1 most uncertain, 5 less uncertain]
– Climate change-induced water shocks (floods, droughts) – Economic shocks (e.g., international financial crisis) – Population pressure – Low state capacity – Income inequality – Illiberal governments – Unemployment – Corruption – Natural resource dependency (livelihoods depend on natural resources) – Conflict in neighboring areas – Mistrust of government – External intervention
Theme 3. Relationship between Climate and Migration at Present and in the Future Across the Middle East and North Africa examples of forced migration, do you think that water shocks led to substantial, moderate, or negligible changes in migration rates? Please tick one option.
Substantial Moderate Negligible
box continues next page
Under future climate change, do you think water shocks will lead to substantial, moderate, or negligible changes in migration rates? Assume no adaptation. Please tick one option.
Substantial Moderate Negligible
How much is a potential relationship between water issues and migration important to the decisions and choices made by national governments, civil society organizations, or international donors? Please tick one option.
Substantial Moderate Negligible
REFERENCE
Mach, K. J., C. M. Kraan, W. N. Adger, H. Buhaug, M. Burke, J. D. Fearon,
C. B. Field, C. S. Hendrix, J. F. Maystadt, J. O’Loughlin, and P. Roessler. 2019. “Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict.” Nature 571 (7764): 193–97.
