References

60. Budget 2019–20, Online Transfer Information management System (database), Republic of

Uganda (accessed August 2020), otims.go.ug. 61. Household consumption figures for 2019 are from World Bank (2019a). Household spending shares on different levels of education are from the National Education Accounts of 2014 (Government of Uganda et al. 2016). Shares of household education spending for 2012–13 and 2016–17 are from the national household surveys of those years (Uganda

Bureau of Statistics 2016a, 2016b). 62. The number of government-supported secondary students in both partnership and government schools has declined by an estimated 30 percent over the past four years according to capitation grant records. 63. Also as reported in the 2018 Uwezo survey as an average of 933 classes (Twaweza 2018b).

However, the survey methods differed as the Service Delivery Indicators study recorded

“in-use books” and made classroom visits unannounced (Wane and martin 2016). 64. For a discussion of the likely resource capacity of a district in the first few years after it has been created, see Green (2015). 65. Urban areas are expected to more than triple in total population before 2050, and rural areas are expected to increase their total population by 46 percent (United Nations 2018). 66. Wage grant values per teacher are similar across LGs, making this a good proxy for the student-teacher ratio. 67. P1 was not used because of the disguised preprimary enrollment and chronic repetition issues described in Weatherholt et al. (2019) and Brunette et al. (2017). LGs are not disaggregated in the enrollment data in the 2013 and 2014 Statistical Abstracts or in the PLE 2019 outcomes. We used 2013, rather than 2014, data for enrollment, because of recording issues in the Statistical Abstract. 68. Similar sample-based SACmEQ assessments were carried out in 2000 and 2007. 69. See Twaweza (2019a) for a full explanation.

REFERENCES

ACODE-U. 2020. “An Analysis of the Proposed National Budget FY 2019/20 and Proposals for

Reallocation.” Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment, Kampala, Uganda. Allen, R., P. Elks, R. Outhred, and P. varley. 2016. “Uganda’s Assessment System: A Road map for

Enhancing Assessment in Education.” Health & Education Advice & Resource Team,

Oxford, UK. Altinyelkin, H.K. 2010. “A Converging Pedagogy in the Developing World? Insights from

Uganda and Turkey.” In Global Education Policy and International Development: New

Agendas, Issues and Policies, edited by A. verger, m. Novelli, and H.K. Altinyelken, 201–22.

London: Bloomsbury. Atuhurra, J., and v. Alina. 2018. “Basic Education Curriculum Effectiveness in East Africa: A

Descriptive Analysis of Primary mathematics in Uganda Using the ‘Surveys of Enacted

Curriculum’.” Working Paper 87583, University Library of munich, munich, Germany. Atuhurra, J., and m. Kaffenburger. 2019. “System (In)Coherence Seen Through a Curriculum

Lens: Ugandan Teachers Face Conflicting Demands from Curriculum and Examination

Bodies.” Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) (blog), may 23, https://riseprogramme.org/blog/system_incoherence_curriculum. Bashir, S., m. Lockheed, E. Ninan, and J.P. Tan. 2018. Facing Forward: Schooling for Learning in

Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. Bold, T., m. Kimenyi, G. mwabu, A. Ng’ang’a, and J. Sandefur. 2018. “Experimental Evidence on

Scaling Up Education Reforms in Kenya.” Journal of Political Economy 168 (December): 1–20.

Brunette, T., L. Crouch, C. Cummiskey, A. Dick, C. Henny, R. Jordan, K. merseth, R. Nabacwa,

J. Pressley, and T. Weatherholt. 2017. “Repetition of Primary 1 and Pre-primary Education in

Uganda.” Working Paper, 2017-02, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. Brunette, T., B. Piper, R. Jordan, S. King, and R. Nabacwa. 2019. “The Impact of mother Tongue

Reading Instruction in Twelve Ugandan Languages and the Role of Language Complexity,

Socioeconomic Factors, and Program Implementation.” Comparative Education Review 63 (4): 591–612. Cilliers, J., I. mbiti, and A. Zeitlin. 2018a. “Can Public Rankings Improve School Performance?

Evidence from a Nationwide Reform in Tanzania.” Working Paper 19/027, Research on

Improving Systems of Education (RISE), Oxford, UK. Cilliers, J., I. Kasirye, C. Leaver, P.m. Serneels, and A. Zeitlin. 2018b. “Pay for Locally monitored

Performance? A Welfare Analysis for Teacher Attendance in Ugandan Primary Schools.”

Journal of Public Economics 167 (November): 69–90. Crawfurd, L., and P. Elks. 2018. “Testing the Feasibility of a value-Added model of School

Quality in a Low-Income Country.” Development Policy Review 37 (4): 470–85. Eaton, K., K. Kaiser, and P. Smoke. 2010. The Political Economy of Decentralization Reforms:

Implications for Aid Effectiveness. Washington, DC: World Bank. Eble, A., I. Fazzio. R. Lumsdaine, P. Boone, B. Bouy, J. Hsieh, C. Jayanty, S. Johnson, and A.F.

Silva. 2020. “Large Learning Gains in Pockets of Extreme Poverty: Experimental Evidence from Guinea Bissau.” Working Paper 27799, National Bureau of Economic Research,

Cambridge, mA. Eble, A, C. Frost, A. Camara, B. Bouy, m. Bah, m. Sivaraman, J. Hsieh, C. Jayanty, T. Brady,

P. Gawron, P. Boone, and D. Elbourne. 2021. “How much Can We Remedy very Low Learning

Levels in Rural Parts of Low-Income Countries? Impact and Generalizability of a multi-

Pronged Para-Teacher Intervention from a Cluster-Randomized Trial in The Gambia.”

Journal of Development Economics 148 (January): 102539. Ernst and Young. 2019. Situational Analysis of the Teachers’ Payroll Management and Capacity

Building Needs Assessment for Payroll Managers Under UTSEP. London: Ernst & Young. Evans, D., and F. Yuan. 2017. “The Economic Returns to Interventions that Increase Learning.” 2018 World Development Report Background Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. Government of Uganda, International Institute for Educational Planning and IIEP-Pôle de

Dakar. 2016. National Education Accounts Report. Kampala: Government of Uganda. Green, E. 2015. “Decentralization and Development in Contemporary Uganda.” Regional and

Federal Studies 5 (5): 491–508. Hares, S., A.L. minardi, and J. Rossiter. 2020. “Grade Repetition in Developing Countries: Repeat to Fail or Second Time’s a Charm?” Center for Global Development, Washington, DC. Hedger, E., T. Williamson, T. muzoora, and J. Stroh. 2010. “Sector Budget Support in Practice:

Education Sector in Uganda.” Overseas Development Institute, London. Hubbard, P. 2007. “Putting the Power of Transparency in Context: Information’s Role in

Reducing Corruption in Uganda’s Education Sector.” Working Paper 136, Center for Global

Development, Washington, DC. IHmE (Institute for Health metrics and Evaluation). 2018. Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Population Estimates 1950–2017. Seattle, WA: IHmE. International Budget Partnership. 2017. Open Budget Survey 2017. Washington, DC: International

Budget Partnership. Kan, S., and S. Klasen. 2018. “Evaluating UPE in Uganda: School Fee Abolition and Educational

Outcomes.” Discussion Paper 245, Courant Research Centre, Göttingen, Germany. Kanjee, A., and S. Acana. 2013. “Developing the Enabling Context for Student Assessment in

Uganda.” SABER-Student Assessment Working Paper 8, World Bank, Washington, DC. Karlan, D., and L. Linden, 2016 “Loose Knots: Strong versus Weak Commitments to Save for

Education in Uganda.” NBER Working Paper 19863, National Bureau of Economic Research,

Cambridge, mA. Kayabwe, S., and R. Nabacwa with J. Eilor and R.W. mugeni. 2014. The Use and Usefulness of

School Grants: Lessons from Uganda.” Paris: International Institute for Educational Planning. Kerwin, J., and R. Thornton. 2020. “making the Grade: The Sensitivity of Education Program

Effectiveness to Input Choices and Outcome measures.” Working Paper. http://dx.doi .org/10.2139/ssrn.3002723. Lewis, J. 2014. “When Decentralization Leads to Recentralization: Subnational State

Transformation in Uganda.” Regional and Federal Studies 24 (5): 571–88.

Lockheed, m. 2008. “measuring Progress with Tests of Learning: Pros and Cons for ‘Cash on

Delivery Aid’ in Education.” Working Paper 147, Center for Global Development, Washington,

DC.

Long, C. 2019. “Note on Education Sector” (unpublished manuscript July 2020, Overseas

Development Institute, London. ———. 2020. “Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers Equity (unpublished manuscript July 2020),

Overseas Development Institute, London. Lwanga, m., E. munyambonera, and m. Guloba. 2018. “Effectiveness of the Public Payroll

Decentralisation Reforms in Uganda.” Research Series 141, Economic Policy Research

Center, Kampala. manuel, m., D. Coppard, A. Dodd, H. Desai, R. Watts, Z. Christensen, and S. manea. 2019.

“Subnational Investment in Human Capital.” Overseas Development Institute, London, and

Development Initiatives, Bristol, UK. moES (ministry of Education and Sports). 2013. Addressing the Challenges of Providing Quality

Education for All in Uganda (SACMEQ Project IV Report). Kampala: moES. ———. 2016. Uganda Secondary School Survey Data. (unpublished), Kampala: moES. ———. 2019a. Education Sector Strategic Plan 2020–25. Draft. Kampala: moES. ———. 2019b. Budgeting and Implementation Guidelines for Primary and Secondary Schools,

Kampala: moES. moFPED (ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development). 2020a. “Local

Government Performance Assessments.” budget.go.ug/lgpas. ———. 2020b. “Government of Uganda Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfer Reform Program:

Update for PFm Working Group.” Presentation by ministry of Finance Planning, and

Economic Development, Kampala, Uganda, June 15. ———. 2020c. “2019/20 Indicative Planning Figures.” Kampala: moFPED. https://budget.go.ug /sites/default/files/19_20_Approved_IPFs_LG_Grants.xlsx. ———. 2020d. Approved Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure (Recurrent and Development. Vol.

II: Local Government Votes. Kampala: moFPED. https://budget.go.ug/sites/default/files /National%20Budget%20docs/LG%20%20APPRO vED%20ESTImATES%20BOOK%20 %20FY%202019-20%20FINAL%20COPY.pdf. moFPED and ODI (Overseas Development Institute). 2016. “Reform to Transfers to Local

Governments in Uganda: Allocation Formulae and Simulations medium Term Roll-out

Plan, November 2016.” (unpublished note), moFPED and ODI, Kampala, Uganda and

London, UK. moLG (ministry of Local Government). 2014. Decentralization and Local Development in

Uganda. Kampala: moLG. Najjumba, I.m., J. Habyarimana, and C.L. Bunjo. 2013. Improving Learning in Uganda, Volume 3:

School-Based Management, Policy, and Functionality. Washington, DC: World Bank. National Planning Authority. 2018a. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Universal Primary

Education (UPE) Policy. Thematic Report 3: Primary Teacher Training for Producing

Competent Teachers to Deliver UPE. Kampala: National Planning Authority. ———. 2018b. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) Policy.

Thematic Report 4: Efficacy of School Inspection in Supporting the Delivery of UPE. Kampala:

National Planning Authority. ———. 2018c. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) Policy.

Thematic Report 5: Financing and Costing of UPE. Kampala: National Planning Authority. Nguyen, T. 2008. “Information, Role models and Perceived Returns to Education: Experimental

Evidence from madagascar.” Job market Paper, massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Cambridge, mA. O’Donoghue, J., L. Crawfurd, J. makaaru, P. Otieno, and R. Perakis. 2019. A Review of Uganda’s

Universal Secondary Education Public Private Partnership Programme. London: Education

Partnerships Group. Office of the Prime minister. 2019. Local Government Performance Assessment Report—FY 2018/2019 National Synthesis Report.” Kampala: Office of the Prime minister.

———. 2020. Local Government Performance Assessment Report—FY 2019/2020 National

Synthesis Report. Kampala: Office of the Prime minister. Piper, B., J. Destefano, E. Kinyanjui, and S. Ong’ele. 2018. “Scaling Up Successfully: Lessons from

Kenya’s Tusome National Literacy Program.” Journal of Educational Change 19 (August): 293–321.

Pritchett, L. 2015. “Creating Education Systems Coherent for Learning Outcomes: making the

Transition from Schooling to Learning.” Working Paper 15/005, Research on Improving

Systems of Education (RISE), Oxford, UK. Rasul, I., and D. Rogger. 2018. “management of Bureaucrats and Public Service Delivery:

Evidence from the Nigerian Civil Service.” Economic Journal 128 (608): 413–46. Rasul, I., D. Rogger, and m. Williams. 2018. “management and Bureaucratic Effectiveness:

Evidence from the Ghanaian Civil Service.” Policy Research Working Paper 8595, World

Bank, Washington, DC. Reinikka, R., and J. Svensson. 2004. “Local Capture: Evidence from a Central Government

Transfer Program in Uganda.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (2): 679–706. Simson, R. 2017a. “(Under)privileged Bureaucrats? The Changing Fortunes of Public Servants in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 1960–2010.” PhD diss., London School of Economics and

Political Science. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3618/. Simson, R. 2017b. “Supplementary material, (Under)privileged Bureaucrats? The Changing

Fortunes of Public Servants in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 1960–2010.” PhD diss., London

School of Economics and Political Science. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3618/. Steffensen, J., P. Tidemand, H. Naitore, E. Ssewankambo, and E. mwaipopo. 2004. Final

Synthesis Report—A Comparative Analysis of Decentralization in Kenya, Tanzania, and

Uganda. Washington, DC: World Bank. Twaweza. 2011. “Uwezo Uganda Learning Assessment Dataset.” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. https://www.uwezo.net/publications/datasets/. ———. 2012. “Uwezo Uganda Learning Assessment Dataset.” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. https:// www.uwezo.net/publications/datasets/. ———. 2015. “Uwezo Uganda Learning Assessment Dataset.” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. https:// www.uwezo.net/publications/datasets/. ———. 2016a. Are Our Children Learning? Five Stories on the State of Education in Uganda in 2015 and Beyond: The Fifth Uwezo Annual Learning Assessment Report. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. ———. 2016b. Are Our Children Learning? Uwezo Uganda Sixth Learning Assessment Report. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. ———. 2018a. “Preparing the Next Generation: Ugandans’ Experiences and Opinions on

Education.” Research Brief 8, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. ———. 2018b. “Uwezo Uganda Eighth Learning Assessment Dataset.” Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. https://www.uwezo.net/publications/datasets/. ———. 2019a. Are our Children Learning? Uwezo Uganda Eighth Learning Assessment Report. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. ———. 2019b. Uwezo Learning Assessment in Refugee Contexts in Uganda. Dar es Salaam,

Tanzania.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics. 2012. “Sub-County Boundaries, Uganda, 2010.” http://purl .stanford.edu/yg674hb9000. ———. 2013. Uganda National Household Survey Report. Kampala: Uganda Bureau of Statistics. https://ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/04_20182012_13_UNHS_Final _Report.pdf. ———. 2016a. Uganda National Household Survey Report. Figure 3.4. Kampala: Uganda Bureau of

Statistics. https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/03_20182016_UNHS _FINAL_REPORT.pdf. ———. 2016b. Uganda National Household Survey Dataset. World Bank microdata Catalog. https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3460/. ———. 2017. Education: A Means for Population Transformation. Kampala: Uganda Bureau of

Statistics.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics and ICF. 2018. Uganda Demographic and Health Survey 2016.

Kampala, Uganda, and Rockville, mD: Uganda Bureau of Statistics and ICF. UNEB (Uganda National Examinations Board). 2014a. Achievement of Primary School Pupils in

Uganda in Numeracy and Literacy in English. Kampala: UNEB. ———. 2014b. Achievement of S2 Students in Uganda in English Language, Mathematics and

Biology. Kampala: UNEB. ———. 2018. Achievement of Primary School Pupils in Uganda in Numeracy and Literacy in English.

Kampala: UNEB. United Nations. 2018. World Population Prospects. New York: United Nations. UNICEF and ministry of Education Rwanda. 2019. Understanding Dropout and Repetition in

Rwanda. New York: UNICEF.

Universalia. 2020. Summative Evaluation of GPE’s Country-Level Support to Education: Uganda.

Quebec, Canada: Universalia. Wane, W., and G. martin. 2016. “Education Service Delivery in Uganda.” Service Delivery

Indicators Report AUS5359, World Bank, Washington, DC. Weatherholt, T., R. Jordan, L. Crouch, E. Barnett, and J. Pressley. 2019. “Challenge and Drivers of Over-Enrollment in the Early Years of Primary School in Uganda.” International Journal of Early Childhood 51 (April): 23–40. Whitworth, A., and T. Williamson. 2010. “Overview of Ugandan Economic Reform since 1986.”

In Uganda’s Economic Reforms: Insider Accounts, edited by F. Kuteesa, Emmanuel

Tumusiime-mutebile, Alan Whitworth, and Tim Williamson, 1–34. Oxford: Oxford

University Press. Williams, m. 2017. “The Political Economy of Unfinished Development Projects: Corruption,

Clientelism, or Collective Choice?” American Political Science Review 111 (4): 705–23. Williamson, T. 2010. “Fiscal Decentralization.” In Uganda’s Economic Reforms: Insider Accounts, edited by F. Kuteesa, Emmanuel Tumusiime-mutebile, Alan Whitworth, and Tim

Williamson, 310–36. Oxford: Oxford University Press. World Bank. 2013. Service Delivery with More Districts in Uganda: Fiscal Challenges and

Opportunities for Reforms. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2014. Uganda Teacher and School Effectiveness Project Appraisal Document.

Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2017. Uganda Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers Program Project Appraisal Document.

Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2019a. “Households and NPISHs Final Consumption Expenditure (% of GDP)—Uganda.” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRvT.ZS?locations=UG. ———. 2019b. Uganda Economic Update, 13th Edition, May 2019: Economic Development and

Human Capital in Uganda—A Case for Investing More in Education. Washington, DC: World

Bank.

———. 2020. Uganda Demographic Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. ———. 2021. The Role of Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers in Improving Education Outcomes.

Annex. Washington, DC: World Bank.