60 ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Therefore, electricity access must be considered within a broader effort of productivity and job creation so that higher uptake and consumption feed into rising household income. Additionally, electricity is not a final consumer product but merely an intermediate input or vehicle to desired services. In addition to lighting, access to electricity services would require the acquisition of appliances, which are often quite expensive relative to a household’s income. Therefore, when thinking about electricity access, the inevitable question is whether these are simultaneous decisions made by households, or whether they would connect first and later acquire the desired appliances. A sensible approach to thinking about demand and access will not only require prices to decrease; it will also require uptake and consumption to rise and energy to contribute to enabling households to raise their productivity and income through simultaneous access to complementary inputs (for example, access to productive appliances).2
Macro Influences on Uptake and Consumption A basic assessment of demand and supply issues would indicate that faster progress will require prices to come down and household incomes to increase. The effort will include getting more people currently under the grid to connect (densification) and making electricity available to areas currently not covered by the grid (extensification). Analysis of data from several sources indicates that cross-country variation in uptake rates is tightly linked to urbanization, population density, development of industry, and the degree of reliability of the service (table 3.1). The importance of urbanization for uptake should be considered broadly in the overall future electrification strategies of the region. Table 3.1 Factors Affecting Uptake and Consumption Indicator
Uptake
Consumption
Urban population
+++
+++
Population density
+
+++
Log GNI
+++
Value added in agriculture Value added in services
+++
Governance index
+++
Reliability
++
+
Sources: Afrobarometer 2014; World Development Indicators 1990–2016; World Energy Statistics 2015. Note: The Governance Index (Mo Ibrahim Index) is used to analyze uptake while government effectiveness data from the Worldwide Governance Indicators are used to analyze consumption. There are 31 countries for the uptake analysis and 24 for consumption. GNI = gross national income. +, ++, +++ stand, respectively, for statistical significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels.