CHAPTER 1
GLOBAL
ECONOMIC
PROSPECTS
| JANUARY 2017
BOX 1.1 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook (continued) FIGURE 1.1.1 Growth and poverty indicators in low-income countries
domestic
in 2017, and 6.0 percent
political
annually
in
remain lower than the average in 2010-14.
LICs need to strengthen
A. GDP growth in LICs
B. Per capita GDP growth in LICs
Percent 8
Percent 8
Percent 8
30
0
2,000
Range EMDE
2018f
2017f
2016e
2015
2018f
2017f
2016e
2015
2018f
2017f
2016e
2015
2018f
2017f
2015
1,000
Commodityimporting fragile
2018f
60
100
Metalexporting fragile
2017f
80
Percent of per capita income, ratio 50 Range AE 40 EMDEs LIC
3,000
Oil-exporting fragile
Commodityimporting fragile
Per capita 4,000
Fragile
Metalexporting fragile
F. Selected education indicators in LICs
4
-8
Oil-exporting fragile
E. Selected health care indicators in LICs
Percent of population 120
-4
Fragile
Oil-exporting MetalCommodityLICs exporting LICs importing LICs
2015
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
LICs
2016e
0 -2
5,000
2010-2014 average
2010-2014 average
2
Oil-exporting MetalCommodityLICs exporting LICs importing LICs
D. Per capita GDP Growth in fragile LICs
Percent 8 4
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
2018f
2015
2017f
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
2018f
2017f
2015
2016e
LICs
-8
but to
indicators.
6
-4
-2 -4
2010-2014 average
0
0
stabilize,
2018f
2
prices
low
expected
C. GDP growth in fragile LICs
4
4
as commodity
2017f
6
2018-19,
growth to improve their human development
GDP
reflecting
LICs' GDP growth is
2015
2010-2014 average
uncertainties.
2016e
to 5.6 percent
and elevated
in 2015.
in the fragile countries,
2018f
moderately
in 2016, from 4.8 percent
2017f
to recover
weather conditions,
4.7 percent
GDP growth was also negative
2015
adverse
to an estimated
2016e
prices,
(LICs) slowed and per capita
2018f
commodity
countries
in oil exporters,
2017f
in low-income
was negative
2015
growth
2016e
GDP
growth
2016e
20
0
Health Improved expenditure sanitation (LHS) (RHS)
40
AE 20 LIC 0 Improved water source (RHS)
20 10 0
Government expenditure
Pupil-teacher ratio
Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank. A. Commodity-exporting LICs include oil and metal exporters, namely, Chad, Guinea, Mozambique, Niger, and Congo, Dem. Rep. Commodity-importing LICs include 22 low-income countries for which data are available. Commodity-importing countries comprise agricultural-based and non-resource intensive economies. Shaded gray areas denote forecast period. C D . Fragility is measured by the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) ratings published annually by the World Bank. Fragile countries had average CPIA scores of 3.2 or less in the years 2013-15. They include: Afghanistan, Burundi, Chad, the Comoros, Congo, Dem. Rep., The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Zimbabwe. E. Blue bars denote range of unweighted regional averages across EMDE regions. Health expenditure per capita in purchasing power parity terms, unweighted averages of 199 EMDEs, 34 AEs, and 29 LIC economies. Access to improved sanitation facilities (in percent of population), unweighted averages for 150 EMDEs, 33 AEs, and 29 LIC economies. Access to improved water sources (in percent of population), unweighted averages for 148 EMDEs, 34 AEs, and 29 LIC economies. Latest available data is 2011-15. F. Blue bars denote range of unweighted regional averages across EMDE regions. Government expenditure per primary student (in percent of per capita income), unweighted averages of 87 EMDEs, 32 AEs, and 26 LIC economies. Pupil-teacher ratio in primary education (headcount basis), unweighted averages for 165 EMDEs, 31 AEs, and 21 LIC economies. Latest available data is 2011-15.
and commodity exporters (Figure 1.1.2). Fiscal deficits in metals exporters narrowed slightly, after these countries took measures to control expenditures and boost non-resource revenues. By contrast, fiscal deficits widened in the oil exporters as public spending rose, even as oil revenues remained depressed. In commodity importers, developments were mixed, although their average fiscal deficit widened. In some countries, deficits declined (Benin, Haiti), or remained low (Afghanistan, Nepal) helped by slower growth of public spending; in others, they remained high (Togo) or widened
(Ethiopia, Uganda) as robust growth encouraged higher expenditures. Government debt continued to rise in most LICs, particularly in commodity exporters. The increase was especially steep in Mozambique, where gross government debt jumped to over 110 percent of G D P after new information exposed government guarantees on the debt of state-owned enterprises. Among commodity importers, government debt rose markedly in Ethiopia, due to the financing of an ambitious