Can good supervision overcome bad borrower performance, and vice versa? Can the developmental objectives be achieved when good supervision and complex design are present in the same project? As seen previously, many implementation problems are present in both successful and unsuccessful projects. Hence, to disentangle these combined effects a number of probit models with interaction terms is estimated. In earlier results, IEG observed that borrower performance appears to be the most important factor in achievement of project objectives, above Bank supervision. Does this result hold even when good borrower performance happens with inadequate supervision? Regression 1 of Table F.3 shows that even when paired with inadequate supervision, good borrower performance is associated with a positive achievement of the development objectives. The same, however, is not true in the opposite circumstance. In projects with good supervision and inadequate borrower performance the interaction term is significant and of the expected sign, indicating that good supervision can compensate for poor borrower performance, but the intercept has an unexpected negative sign, indicating that good supervision has a negative impact on project objectives (regression 2). These results seem to indicate that borrower performance is more important than supervision because results are more consistent. Good borrower performance has also a positive effect when a crisis occurs. In these cases, in fact, the combined effect appears to be positive, indicating the ability of the borrower to overcome the crisis and achieve the developmental objectives. This is, however, not the case with delays. When these occur, not even a good borrower performance can ensure the achievement of developmental objectives (Table F.3, regressions 3 and 4). Project supervision and design appear to work together. On one hand, if a project has not been properly designed, even good supervision will not be able to ensure the achievement of the project objectives. On the other hand, a good design in not enough to ensure the achievement of the project objectives when the project is affected by poor supervision (Table F.4, regressions 1 and 2). Finally, good targeting and a proper M&E system also work together. If either one is not present, the achievement of the development objective is put in doubt or not achieved.
An Independent Evaluation  |  Appendix F
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