118
The Transport Sector
Figure 7.1 Composition of Vehicle Fleet and Vehicle Uses (continued) b. Vehicle use (percentage of km traveled)
Light commercial, 13
Heavy goods Coach, vehicle, <0.5 Light bus, 4 <0.5
Motorcycle, 19
Private car, 64 Source: World Bank commissioned survey, 2012, based on State Licensing Authority vehicle registration data (SLA 2005).
Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool) model for each of the vehicle subcategories used in the survey, estimates of total fuel consumption based on the baseline vehicle fleet and activity levels were made as shown in figure 7.2. This resulted in total emissions for the country of 27.6 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2010.
Reference Scenario for Transport Over the coming years, a number of cumulative factors can be expected to lead to increasing levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. These factors include population growth, development in manufacturing and services, increased per capita income, and vehicle fleet evolution.
Population Nigeria’s growing population of young adults has direct relevance to the potential pool of future car owners. The increasing driving age population can be expected to have a direct impact on private vehicle ownership and usage, not only as a means of transport but for the social status it represents.
Manufacturing and Services Economic growth drives both personal and commercial travel demand. It is equally true that the ability to move goods and people is a requisite to achieving economic growth. Therefore it is recognized that an efficient transport system is an essential element of a strongly performing economy. Low-Carbon Development • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9925-5