2 People registration systems or, in their absence, censuses or sample sur-
final year of primary education. There are many reasons why the pri-
veys and are generally considered reliable measures of fertility in the
mary completion rate may exceed 100 percent. The numerator may
recent past. Where no empirical information on age-specific fertility
include late entrants and overage children who have repeated one
rates is available, a model is used to estimate the share of births to
or more grades of primary education as well as children who entered
adolescents. For countries without vital registration systems fertility
school early, while the denominator is the number of children at the
rates are generally based on extrapolations from trends observed
entrance age for the last grade of primary education.
in censuses or surveys from earlier years.
Youth literacy Prevalence of HIV
The youth literacy rate for ages 15–24 is a standard measure of
HIV prevalence rates reflect the rate of HIV infection in each coun-
recent progress in student achievement. It reflects the accumulated
try’s population. Low national prevalence rates can be misleading,
outcomes of primary education by indicating the proportion of the
however. They often disguise epidemics that are initially concen-
population that has acquired basic literacy and numeracy skills over
trated in certain localities or population groups and threaten to spill
the previous 10 years or so. In practice, however, literacy is difficult
over into the wider population. In many developing countries most
to measure. Estimating literacy rates requires census or survey mea-
new infections occur in young adults, with young women especially
surements under controlled conditions. Many countries estimate
vulnerable.
the number of literate people from self-reported data. Some use
Data on HIV prevalence are from the Joint United Nations Pro-
educational attainment data as a proxy but apply different lengths
gramme on HIV/AIDS. Changes in procedures and assumptions for
of school attendance or levels of completion. Because definitions
estimating the data and better coordination with countries have
and methods of data collection differ across countries, data should
resulted in improved estimates. New models track the course of
be used cautiously. Generally, literacy encompasses numeracy, the
HIV epidemics and their impacts, making full use of information
ability to make simple arithmetic calculations.
on HIV prevalence trends from surveillance data as well as survey
Data on youth literacy are compiled by the United Nations Educa-
data. The models include the effect of antiretroviral therapy, take
tional, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for
into account reduced infectivity among people receiving antiretrovi-
Statistics based on national censuses and household surveys dur-
ral therapy (which is having a larger impact on HIV prevalence and
ing 1985–2011 and, for countries without recent literacy data, using
allowing HIV-positive people to live longer), and allow for changes in
the Global Age-Specific Literacy Projection Model.
urbanization over time (important because prevalence is higher in urban areas and because many countries have seen rapid urbaniza-
Labor force participation
tion over the past two decades). The estimates include plausible
The labor force is the supply of labor available for producing goods
bounds, available at http://data.worldbank.org, which reflect the
and services in an economy. It includes people who are currently
certainty associated with each of the estimates.
employed, people who are unemployed but seeking work, and firsttime job-seekers. Not everyone who works is included, however.
44
Primary completion
Unpaid workers, family workers, and students are often omitted,
Many governments publish statistics that indicate how their educa-
and some countries do not count members of the armed forces.
tion systems are working and developing—statistics on enrollment
Labor force size tends to vary during the year as seasonal workers
and efficiency indicators such as repetition rates, pupil–teacher
enter and leave.
ratios, and cohort progression. The primary completion rate, also
Data on the labor force are compiled by the International Labour
called the gross intake ratio to last grade of primary education, is
Organization (ILO) from labor force surveys, censuses, and estab-
a core indicator of an education system’s performance. It reflects
lishment censuses and surveys and from administrative records
an education system’s coverage and the educational attainment
such as employment exchange registers and unemployment insur-
of students. It is a key measure of progress toward the Millennium
ance schemes. Labor force surveys are the most comprehensive
Development Goals and the Education for All initiative. However, a
source for internationally comparable labor force data. Labor force
high primary completion rate does not necessarily mean high levels
data from population censuses are often based on a limited number
of student learning.
of questions on the economic characteristics of individuals, with
The indicator reflects the primary cycle as defined by the Interna-
little scope to probe. Establishment censuses and surveys provide
tional Standard Classification of Education (ISCED97), ranging from
data on the employed population only, not unemployed workers,
three or four years of primary education (in a very small number of
workers in small establishments, or workers in the informal sector
countries) to five or six years (in most countries) and seven (in a
(ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market 2001–2002).
small number of countries). It is a proxy that should be taken as an
Besides the data sources, there are other important factors
upper estimate of the actual primary completion rate, since data
that affect data comparability, such as census or survey reference
limitations preclude adjusting for students who drop out during the
period, definition of working age, and geographic coverage. For
World Development Indicators 2013
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