CHAPTER 2
What Will Drive Deforestation in the Congo Basin? A Multisectoral Analysis
As chapter 1 indicates, despite historically low deforestation rates, Congo Basin countries are likely to enter a new phase of economic development that could lead to increased pressure on forests. In 2008, the Congo Basin countries, donors, and partner organizations agreed to pool their efforts to conduct a robust and scientifically sound study to thoroughly analyze deforestation and forest degradation in the Congo Basin. The main objective—to investigate in depth the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation over the next decades in the Basin—specifically aimed at devising a regional economic model that will help building different scenarios of potential impacts of economic activities on forest cover in the next 20 to 30 years. This chapter presents the chief findings of the research. It was conducted over the last two years in close consultation with the Basin countries and the regional Forestry Commission for Central Africa (COMIFAC). The study combined robust sectoral analysis of key economic sectors (transport, agriculture, logging, energy, and mining), a modeling exercise, and regular and iterative consultations with technical experts from the region. Chapter 2 is structured as follows: a first section will present the principle underlying the deforestation dynamics as well as the modeling approach adopted for the proposed exercise in the Congo Basin, and the second section will then summarize developments in the selected key economic sectors of the Congo Basin and their potential impacts on Basin forests.
Deforestation and Forest Degradation Dynamics in the Congo Basin Proximate and Underlying Causes of Deforestation Determining the driving forces of land use/cover change is complex. Human pressure on forests is shaped by a complex of market access, suitability for farming, and tenure security (Chomitz et al. 2007). According to the work from Geist and Lambin (2001), a combination of economic factors, institutions, national policies, and remote factors drive tropical deforestation (see figure 2.1). Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9742-8
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