Africa’s Emerging Urban Water Challenges 33
30
80 70
Millions of people affected
25
60 20
50
15
40 30
10
20 5
Total number of disaster events per year
Figure 1.13 Increased Frequency and Impact of Reported Disasters in Africa
10
0
19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08
0 Year Drought
Flood
Storm
Volcano
Number of events
Source: World Bank, 2010c, based on EMDAT Emergency Events database 2010.
age US$7 million in damages and losses per year. In 2009, urban floods in the southwestern neighborhoods of Bangui left 14,500 people homeless. Over 40 percent of victims were under 14 years old, and 57 percent were female (World Bank, 2012). Diseases such as malaria, diarrhea, and other water-borne illnesses followed the floods, affecting lives and livelihoods, but the specific effect varies from region to region and the exact effect on African cities is difficult to predict. Uncertainty might be the biggest threat to cities from climate change. Projected changes in precipitation up to the year 2075 vary widely between the different global circulation models, and none are fine-scaled enough to project change to the climate of specific cities. However, nearly all climate change projections signal greater chances of severe drought in Africa. Lower precipitation is projected to threaten food production and increase the risk of disease. Increases in sea level, cyclones, storm surges, and wind intensity will be experienced in many countries, particularly those on the coast (Dasgupta et al., 2009). In most places, in particular around the equator, climate change will increase climate variation. Given an uncertain future, plans for water sources, storage, and drainage will need to be flexible and adaptive to respond to a range of future conditions.