30 The Future of Water in African Cities
Africa, some regions, notably the Sahel, show substantial variability from decade to decade. By contrast, eastern and southeastern Africa show relatively stable patterns (Parry et al., 2007). Africa’s climatic and hydrologic variability is manifested as droughts and floods that destroy livelihoods and undermine economic progress (see Figure 1.11). Variability also discourages investment and encourages other risk-averse behavior that aggravates the poverty trap. It is no coincidence that in many of the world’s poorest countries, climate variability is high, water-related investments are relatively limited, and there is often a strong correlation between rainfall variability and GDP, with GDP dropping 10 percent or more at times due to increasing rainfall variability. Most natural disasters in Africa are climate-related, and large areas Figure 1.11 Current and Future Population in African Cities Exposed to Drought
Source: Map produced by Africa Spatial Services Helpdesk, based on World Bank, 2012b.