80
MPM, CPT, DUR
MPM, DAK, CPT, DUR
CPT, JHB
NBO
CPT
Mean annual runoff
q10 (flood indicator)a
q90 (drought indicator)b
Basin yield (storage)
Base yield (groundwater)
ABJ, BLZ, MPM, DAK, DUR, JHB
LAD, ADD, DAK, JHB, KRT
CKY, BLZ, MPM, DAK, DUR
ADD
ADD, DAK, JHB
Lower with medium confidence Little agreement among models
LAD, COO, OUA, YAO, DLA, BZV, KIN, LUM, MBU, ADD, ACC, KMS, CKY, NBO, LLW, ABV, IBA, KAN, LOS, KRT, KAM, LUN, HRE
COO, OUA, YAO, BZV, KIN, LUM, MBU, ABJ, ACC, KMS, CKY, BLZ, LLW, MPM, ABV, IBA, KAN, LOS, CPT, DUR, KAM, HRE
LAD, COO, OUA, YAO, DLA, BZV, KIN, LUM, MBU, ABJ, ADD, ACC, KMS, LLW, ABV, IBA, KAN, LOS, KRT, KAM, LUN, HRE
LAD, COO, OUA, YAO, DLA, BZV, KIN, MBU, ABJ, ACC, KMS, CKY, NBO, BLZ, LLW, ABV, IBA, KAN, LOS, JHB, KRT, KAM, LUN, HRE
LAD, COO, OUA, YAO, DLA, BZV, KIN, LUM, MBU, ABJ, ACC, KMS, CKY, NBO, BLZ, LLW, ABV, IBA, KAN, LOS, KRT, KAM, LUN, HRE
DSM
DLA, DSM
NBO, DSM
LUM, DSM
DSM
Higher with medium confidence
—
LUN
—
—
—
Higher with high confidence
Sources: Data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge portal and Strzepek et al., 2011. Note: Lower/higher with high confidence: 17 or more of the 19 climate models (90 percent) for emission scenarios A2 give this result (19 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models provide results for the A2 emission scenario). Lower/higher with medium confidence: 13 to 16 of 19 climate models give this result (67 percent). Little agreement among models: between 7 and 12 of 19 climate models give the same sign of change (lower or higher). a q10 is the flow that is exceeded 10 percent of the time. For q10 an increase in the value signifies an increase in the likelihood of a given high flow and therefore an indication of increased flood risk. b q90 is the flow that is exceeded 90 percent of the time. For q90 a decrease in the value signifies an increase in the likelihood of a given low flow and therefore an indication of increased drought risk. City abbreviations: ABJ, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire; ABV, Abuja, Nigeria; ACC, Accra, Ghana; ADD, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; BLZ, Blantyre, Malawi; BZV, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; CKY, Conakry, Guinea; COO, Cotonou, Benin; CPT, Cape Town, South Africa; DAK, Dakar, Senegal; DLA, Douala, Cameroon; DSM, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; DUR, Durban, South Africa; HRE, Harare, Zimbabwe; IBA, Ibadan, Nigeria; JHB, Johannesburg, South Africa; KAM, Kampala, Uganda; KAN, Kano, Nigeria; KIN, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo; KMS, Kumasi, Ghana; KRT, Khartoum, Sudan; LAD, Luanda, Angola; LLW, Lilongwe, Malawi; LOS, Lagos, Nigeria; LUM, Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of Congo; LUN, Lusaka, Zambia; MBU, Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Republic of Congo; MPM, Maputo, Mozambique; NBO, Nairobi, Kenya; OUA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; YAO, Yaoundé, Cameroon. — = not available.
Lower with high confidence
Hydrology indicator
Table 3.1 Cities, Water, and Climate Change in 2050: An Indicator Approach to Understanding the Risk for 31 Cities