Postcrisis Growth and Development: A Development Agenda for the G-20 (Part 1 of 2)

Page 171

The G-20 and Global Development

Figure 4.10. Net Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Only a Modest Recovery 1,400

10

1,200

9 8 7

800

6

600

5 4

400

percent

$ (billions)

1,000

3

year private debt

portfolio equity

FDI

11f 20

e 09 20

20

20

03 20

20

19

97 19

19

07

0

05

–200

01

1

99

2

0

95

200

share of GDP (right axis)

Source: World Bank Staff estimates.

percent of GDP

Figure 4.11. Developing-Country Financing Gaps Will Remain Large 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

total gap ($billion)

low-income countries

2009e 2010p 201 1p 352 210 180

lower-middleincome countries

2009e

2010f

upper-middleincome countries 201 1f

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

The stakes are high. Even relatively small declines in growth can have cumulatively large impacts on poverty. Our simulations suggest that a 0.5 percentage point decline in the developing-country growth rate, resulting, say, from higher capital costs and lower investment, can mean

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