Ethiopia: Sustaining Rapid Growth amidst Global Economic Crisis
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payments remains sustainable over the forecast period (which means that international reserves are enough to cover more than two months of imports). We project that as the impact of devaluation slowly takes hold, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth will gradually turn positive, from – 5.3 percent as of FY10 to 0 percent by FY12 (table 5.1). Table 5.1. Ethiopia: Medium-Term Scenario, 2010–13 FY06
FY07
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
Real GDP growth at market price (%)
10.8
11.5
10.8
8.7
8.2
8.0
7.6
7.6
Domestic demand growth (%)
13.8
12.9
13.2
10.6
9.9
8.0
5.4
6.0
Consumption
11.9
11.0
16.5
8.4
10.4
9.1
5.0
6.4
Gross capital formation
21.3
19.5
2.1
18.7
8.1
4.2
6.8
4.7
Contribution to GDP Domestic demand
16.2
15.5
16.1
13.1
13.0
9.8
7.5
7.6
Net exports
–7.9
–0.9
–5.5
–5.2
–5.3
–1.6
0.0
–0.8
2.6
–3.2
0.2
0.8
0.5
–0.2
0.1
0.7
Statistical errors Contribution net exports Exports of G & NFS
0.1
1.5
–0.4
0.8
–0.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
Import of G & NFS
–8.0
–2.4
–5.1
–6.0
–4.5
–3.4
–1.9
–3.0
Potential GDP growth
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
Output gap
2.3
3.0
2.3
0.2
–0.3
–0.5
–0.9
–0.9
CPI increase (period average) (%)
11.6
17.2
30.5
24.4
5.6
8.4
6.6
6.1
GDP deflator
11.6
17.2
30.5
24.4
5.5
9.1
7.5
7.0
External terms of trade
3.5
–1.3
1.9
7.8
12.2
–2.1
0.1
0.8
Current account balance
–1.4
–0.9
–1.5
–1.6
–2.4
–2.9
–2.6
–2.4
As share of GDP (%)
–9.1
–4.5
–5.6
–5.1
–7.9
–9.3
–7.5
–6.7
Foreign exchange reserves (US$ bn)
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.5
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.6
External accounts (US$ billion)
Source: World Bank; International Monetary Fund; staff estimates. Note: f = forecast; G = goods; NFS = nonfactor services; CPI = consumer price index.