Impact of Liberalization
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• the marginalization of many already weak carriers, some of which ultimately disappeared, for instance, Air Tanzania, Nigerian Airways, and Cameroon Airlines; • the consolidation of networks through the phasing out of a number of low-density routes and growth of routes to and from the main hubs, most significant in East Africa; • the development of fifth freedom traffic, especially in regions and country pairs that lacked strong local carriers, often offered by dominant carriers at marginal cost, effectively resulting in pressure on regional fares, which is forcing locally-based third and fourth freedom carriers to accept lower fares; • the significant development of sixth freedom traffic, fostered by the liberalization of third and fourth freedom capacities within Africa, and in some cases with intercontinental counterpart countries. With respect to the last point, some of the sixth freedom services are increasingly competing with point-to-point intercontinental traffic, especially on West African routes to and from Europe and over certain hubs in East Africa. These carriers, which appear to be the main beneficiaries of the ongoing liberalization, are mostly based in North and East Africa and are likely to emerge as key actors in relation to the future consolidation of Africa’s air transport industry. On a regional basis, only West and Central Africa have fully achieved the liberalization of air services in terms of policy implementation. While these regions experienced a high turnover of carriers, they also felt the largest impact in terms of fifth freedom flights. Nevertheless, while a high percentage of these fifth freedom flights are of carriers registered in the RECs of West and Central Africa (WAEMU and CEMAC), African carriers of other RECs also account for a significant number of fifth freedom flights. As no strong regional carrier has emerged in West or Central Africa, the question of whether regional liberalization or continent-wide liberalization will ultimately shape the market in West and Central Africa remains open. Regions that have not implemented the Yamoussoukro Decision, such as North and southern Africa, would generally benefit from the decision. However, some countries, such as South Africa, are facing strong, continued resistance by neighboring states with weak carriers. Nevertheless, the examples of several North African carriers that have begun expanding their route networks into Sub-Saharan Africa are inspiring continentwide liberalization.