124
Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
cooling, not only for those individuals most vulnerable to health threats from the heat—the elderly, infants, and the disabled—but for the general population as well. In southern cities, projected reductions in precipitation and higher temperatures could also lead to groundwater depletion. In addition to raising concerns about water shortages for urban dwellers, reduced moisture in soils can affect the foundations of buildings. Another issue that cities face, and which climate change can aggravate, is the urban “heat island” effect. Most urban areas are built with surfaces that absorb the heat interrupted by parks and green spaces populated with plants that are suited to historic climate patterns. As temperatures increase, some plants may have difficulty surviving the new climate. When the amount of non-reflective surfaces in cities combines with the heat generated through rising energy use, cities can become significantly warmer than surrounding areas, raising concerns about heat stress and unmanageable surges in energy demand for cooling. Coastal cities face additional concerns of infrastructure vulnerability (see chapter 4). Sea-level rise, and the associated increase in storm surges, will accelerate coastal erosion, increase the incidence of flooding, and lead to saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers in cities, particularly those along the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Turkey, for example, is highly vulnerable since it is bordered by four seas (Aegan, Black, Marmara, and Mediterranean). A 1–meter rise in sea level would affect approximately 30 percent of the nation’s total population living in urban areas in proximity to the coastline. Sea-level rise has the potential to affect not only natural systems and housing and infrastructure, but also tourism and enterprise (Karaca and Nicholls 2008). Many northern cities situated along major waterways face the prospect of greater precipitation, leading to river swell and stress on existing dams. As precipitation increases and soils become waterlogged, existing stormwater drainage systems, as well as sewage treatment plants and sewer lines, may be overwhelmed. Sewers that carry both storm water and sewage are common in many cities throughout the region. During the Prague floods of 2002, these systems were overwhelmed, and many sewage treatment plants had to halt operations. Flood waters can transfer contaminants from abandoned industrial sites and operational facilities to populated areas. Along with the other types of wastes that will wash up onto the shores, these conditions can pose threats to human health. Large, prefabricated, and poorly maintained Soviet-era buildings, a dominant feature of so many cities in the region, are vulnerable to