Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention

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Spotlight 5 on the 2004 Tsunami

167

Inflation (percent, year over year)

Spotlight figure 3 Inflation in Aceh well above the national average 45

Tsunami

Fuel price increase

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2003

2004 National average

2005 Banda Aceh

2006

2007 Lhokseumwe

Source: Masyrafah and McKeon 2008.

While some of the waste and unintended effects could have been avoided, many victims and survivors did benefit. Furthermore, the Indonesian government’s considerate and efficient response even stilled the conflict with the Aceh provincial government that had been simmering for 30 years. But such humanitarian impulses do not always overcome animosities.

Warnings and preparedness save lives The tsunami caught most by surprise, but not all. Scientists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii frantically called counterparts in the vulnerable countries to alert them of the inevitable tsunami after detecting and locating the massive quake. Those they reached lacked the authority to act; so public warnings were not always issued or acted on. But some were prepared. A 10-year-old English schoolgirl, having just studied tsunamis in school, deduced from the sudden draining of the sea that a tsunami was imminent. Her family holidaying in the Thai resort of Maikhao Beach fled to safety along with some 100 other tourists. Similarly, the Onge tribe in the Little Andaman Island retreated to higher ground when they felt the quake, as did those on the Indonesian islands of Simeulue, showing that knowledge embedded in culture usefully augments the direct experience of any generation. Simply asking people to go a short distance inland to higher ground would have saved many lives because the waters quickly abate. Only one person died in Kenya, where radio and television stations discovered news reports on satellite television and broadcast warnings three hours ahead of the tsunami. But 300 died eight hours after the earthquake in neighboring Somalia, because such news was not monitored. Countries are making efforts now to improve warnings, and many are taking advantage of newer technologies as well. Short message services (SMS) may reach more people quicker, especially with the huge increase in the use of cellular telephones.5 In the wake of the 2004 tsunami, Sri Lankan authorities sent out a text message for village chiefs and media outlets that could spread the word to people who did not have mobile phones.6


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