38 percent thermal efficiency for open-cycle gas turbine plants. It is important to note that CCGT plants would need to be located on or near the ring to anchor the development of the EC Ring.26 Given the relative need for new capacity, the location of lignite resources in the region, and the benefits of generation in strengthening transmission grids, the most likely candidate locations for those plants would be Albania, southern Croatia, FYR Macedonia, and Montenegro. The loads would build up over time, so the full capacity would not be needed in the first year; and as gas from a new injection point became available, the maximum flows on the ring would be reduced. Therefore, as an example, a ring could be designed to deliver the flows required for anchor loads and then could have its delivery capacity increased to handle the longterm loads by the addition of a second and a third injection point spaced around the ring. Referring to the updated GIS results (SEE Consultants 2007) and ECA’s demand projections, the following demand buildup and offtake points have been assumed to determine the ring capacity requirements: • initial anchor demand of 2.2–2.5 Bcm/y (notionally, in 2011), supplied from a single injection point serving a total of 2,100 megawatts of CCGT capacity comprising two 300-megawatt power stations (notionally located in western Croatia near Dubrovnik and in Montenegro near Niksic) and three 500-megawatt power stations (notionally located in western Croatia near Ploce or Split, in Albania, and in FYR Macedonia) • long-term demand of 7 Bcm/y (after 15 years; notionally, in 2025), supplied from as many injection points and UGS facilities as required by their physical locations around the ring; and serving all sectors, including seasonal commercial and residential distribution loads, which would be expected to build up as the city distribution networks develop. In the initial anchor demand assumption (described in the “Anchor Loads” section of chapter 2), the maximum hourly flow required into the ring if all 2,100 megawatts of CCGT power plants were operating at full load would be 370 Mcm, as indicated in table 3.8. The annual consumption range of 2.2–2.5 Bcm is equivalent to an annual load factor of 70–80 percent. If this peak flow could be delivered equally around the two sides of the ring, from any given single injection point, the maximum flow required on any section of the ring would be 185 Mcm/h. Appendix table C.1 shows
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The integrated development of the ring and the associated initial anchor power station loads likely would lead to an earlier development of one or more CCGTs. It also is possible that the locations of those plants would be different if the ring did not exist, given the cost advantages of siting the plants close to the ring.
The Future of the Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe