Figure 2.21 Long-Run 1-in-50-Years Energy and Mean Year Load-Duration Curves 60
demand (MMcm/d)
50
40
30
20
10
0 1
91
183
274
365
days mean year year with the 1-in-20 years peak day year with the 1-in-50 years energy
Source: Economic Consulting Associates’ gas storage model. Note: MMcm/d = million cubic meters per day. Chart includes all markets of Southeast Europe, except Bulgaria and Romania.
the peak response to low temperatures. The storage modeling indicates that 2.0–2.5 Bcm of capacity will be needed in the seven markets of the region that are not currently part of the European Union. A decision to set aside storage capacity for strategic reserves use in the case of supply interruption would increase this amount of needed capacity further. Some 0.8 Bcm of underground storage capacity already is under development at the Banatski Dvor depleted gas field in Serbia. Companies in Romania already are planning to add 2.15 Bcm of storage capacity by 2015 to the 2.85 Bcm now in operation. All of this storage capacity is in depleted fields. Bulgaria is planning to more than double the capacity of the Chiren storage facility by 2010, from 350 MMcm to 800 MMcm. If there is greater availability of alternatives to underground gas storage on commercially attractive terms than has been assumed, it may be possible to get by with a little less storage capacity. Similarly, if the degree of flexibility in supply contracts is greater than has been assumed in the modeling and
90
The Future of the Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe