Key Findings and Cross-Country Insights
virtually all AEZs. These seasonal changes in climate have clear implications for crop production if no adaptation measures are adopted beyond those farmers already employ, which are risks to crop production that result from heat and water stress.
Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Varies across Countries Agriculture in countries with large numbers of rural smallholders can be particularly vulnerable to climate change, primarily owing to their low adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is defined as the ability of a system to adjust to climate change and variability, to reduce the potential damage, or to take advantage of opportunities. This study reviewed adaptive capacity in both the public and private sectors. At the national level, a high level of adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector is characterized by a high level of functionality in the provision of hydrometeorological and relevant geospatial data to farmers to support good farm level decision making, provision of other agronomic information through well-trained extension agents and well-functioning extension networks, and in-country research oriented toward innovations in agronomic practices in response to forecast climate changes. In addition, in well-adapted countries, systems exist to ensure that collective water infrastructure is well maintained and meets the needs of the farming community; systems also exist to resolve conflicts between farmers and other users over water provision. In all of the countries addressed in this study, some of these conditions exist, but most are currently inadequate. A few of the most common issues in adaptive capacity are as follows: • Agricultural research capabilities and technological assistance must be adapted toward climate change. Agricultural research capabilities have a long history in most former Soviet republics, but are not oriented toward climate change adaptation and may have a poor connection to farmer extension. There is a wide range of technical expertise within the agricultural research communities of these countries. Even the most capable agricultural research institutes, however, have not yet focused on climate change as a major risk to agricultural production and are not as effectively coordinated with the extension service as they could be. In all four countries, research could be better focused on leveraging advances in seed varieties and farming practices shown to be effective in other countries and on coordinating with the extension service to demonstrate these results locally, particularly for small-scale farmers. • Many farms are small and have limited resources for adaption investments. Due to constraints, such as lack of access to finance, land fragmentation, and limited know-how, most small farmers cannot invest in mechanization, irrigation, or new plantations, which limits adaptive capacity.
Looking Beyond the Horizon • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8
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