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Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menus for Study Countries
Map 3.7 Uzbekistan: Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Temperature through 2050 for the Three Climate Impact Scenarios Climate impact scenarios, 2040s a. Baseline
Temperature (ºC) 8.0 - 9.5
b. Low impact
c. Medium impact
9.5 - 11.0 11.0 - 12.5 12.5 - 14.0 14.0 - 15.5 15.5 - 17.0
11.5
Average annual temperature for the Piedmont AEZ, River Basin 1
Temperature (ºC)
11.0
d. High impact
10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 Base
2010s
2020s 2030s 2040s Decade Base Medium impact High impact Low impact
Sources: © Industrial Economics. Used with permission; reuse allowed via Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0). Country boundaries are from ESRI and used via CC BY 3.0.
summarized in table 3.15. These projections show that yields of the key commodity crops that currently dominate Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector, namely cotton and wheat, will decline (for the medium impact scenario of future climate change in most AEZs), mainly as a result of heat and water stresses. Wheat yields might increase in the eastern portion of the Piedmont AEZ. Looking Beyond the Horizon • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8