Our View of 2022: Optimism, with Pockets of Upward Trends Our insurers’ optimism around continued rate increases may be wishful thinking. The Q2 2021 CIAB survey reported that average commercial lines rate increases in the quarter were 8.3%, down from 10.0% in Q1 2021.
The magnitude of rate increases for average commercial lines rates has lessened since Q4 2020
In our experience, high-quality property and casualty placements are often oversubscribed, with rate increases less than 5%. Certain industries and risk factors remain challenging. On the property side, wood products, heavy manufacturing, and food & beverage are challenging sectors, and any risk with a wildfire exposure can expect rate increases. In the casualty segment, large fleet exposures will draw scrutiny and increased rates. Our view of 2022 is that rate increases will flatten throughout the year, particularly in property and casualty. Almost every month in 2021 has brought news of a new market entrant—it takes time for new markets to get up and running, but most should be fully operational and quoting new business in 2022.
By-Line Second Quarter 2021 Rate Changes Ranged from 0.3% to +17.4% 25%
Umbrella Commercial Property
20%
Average Commercial Auto
15%
General Liability 10%
Workers’ Comp
5% 0% Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Source: The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers
8
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
