Environmental Assessment The strategic environment in which the California Space Enterprise (CSE) must plan its future has never been more dynamic, or more challenging. With new leadership in Washington and Sacramento and an intensely stressful political and economic climate, major government and private decisions regarding investment in space capabilities will be volatile. The federal space budgets are expected to progressively shrink over the next several years, and investments in a challenged economy will be difficult to come by, creating challenges in the way space business will be done in the future. International cooperation is a driving priority of this Administration so the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR – export licensing regulations) are expected to soften, and investments internationally in commercial space enterprises will increase. As new international players mature their spacefaring capabilities, the global space marketplace will take on new dimensions of complexity. To help guide the CSE through such turbulence, the Space Enterprise Advisory Council (SEAC) reviewed the state, national and international space environment and identified key drivers—opportunities and challenges—that must be considered in our strategic planning. Boeing X-37 (artist’s rendition). The runway at Vandenberg AFB willb e the landing strip for the USAF X37B spaceplane. Built by Boeing Phantom Works, the X37B was undergoing onorbit testing as we published in summer of 2010. Credit: Boeing
This environment is rich with opportunity for the CSE.
• The new Administration looks favorably on science and technology investments and California may be able to play a much larger role. Two of the three major beneficiaries of the science and technology budget increases are JPL in Pasadena, Dryden Flight Test Center, and Ames in Mountain View. Additionally, one of the potential providers of commercial resupply to the space station (SpaceX) is located in California. The new focus on science and technology extends the life of the International Space Station and it is now ready to meet its promise, and California should prepare to take advantage of this unique facility. Space science will likely be reenergized, providing a boost for California’s NASA centers, and California will undoubtedly play a role in advancing the new technologies that NASA will need and promote.
• California commercial space firms will continue to flourish in support of satellite communications, direct broadcast television, mobile services, GPS user sets, and other emerging business opportunities, such as suborbital excursions and remote sensing, as these sectors continue to mature. California companies will play many roles in these growing industries, from system suppliers to service providers and many other supporting functions.
• Public appreciation of the benefits of space exploration and development is growing. At the same time, many new applications of space capabilities to California’s and the nation’s needs are emerging, from orbital factories to improved climate, weather and environmental understanding to energy-producing satellites. This is a story that must be told, and these opportunities must be pursued.
• The military space program will continue to leverage and grow its capabilities in El Satellite TV and other space services are the fastest growing sector of both global and California space enterprise.
Segundo, San Diego and Vandenberg AFB while emerging missions include “Space Protection”, cyber protection and potential warfare, modernizing and miniaturizing space weather platforms, the general move toward disaggregation of space sensors, moves toward more affordable and responsive space systems, moving toward commercial/DoD partnerships with commercial hosting/rideshare missions, and missile defense. The growing California government space workforce will be a key building block for the future. These factors are expected to significantly increase the need for space systems and services over the next decade, as space activities now impact virtually every sector of the economy. Significantly, investment in space infrastructure has the potential to stimulate economic development and job creation like few other sectors. Moreover, cross-national dialogue is growing on many space issues, from orbital traffic and debris management to space tourism, and opportunities for international cooperation should continue to improve in all sectors of the CSE. On the other hand, all these opportunities will face challenges.
• Federal and state budgets have never been under more duress, and companies face
Defense requirements and budgets are key drivers of space enterprise. Courtesy Quintron
16
economic challenges as the global economy struggles to retain its former robustness. In this stressed environment, space activities will compete with many other critical priorities for resources. Budgets for national security space programs, in particular, will continue to be under intense scrutiny and without any doubt these will decrease, while the missions they support will increase.
California Space Enterprise Strategic Plan 2010-2012