No output without input

Curfews in Kashmir are adversely affecting its economy

Talhah Iftakhar Kashmir, an ethnically diverse Himalayan region, spreading across 86,000 square miles, known for its beauty of the landscape, has caused many tensions over who has control over the area. This in return meant that Kashmir was split into two between India and Pakistan, with Indian –administered Kashmir being given a

semi-autonomous state which was illegally revoked by India on the 5th August 2019 after a seven-decade long status being unruly overturned. This therefore has meant that many residents of Kashmir are protesting and demanding freedom whilst India has responded with a curfew. Due to the lockdown placed by India it has led to Kashmiris having their phones, cable television and the Internet being stripped off them leaving them with a low standard of living as they are stripped of their luxury and necessary requirements which are crucial for a regions development. With India then placing an extra, tens of thousands of troops to maintain order is leading to this area to be the most militarised in the world with their being over 800,000 thousand troops active. Union Minister for Finance had allocated $54billion of India's union budget of

2017 on their military which has seen a rise in 7% from their previous fiscal year. This has caused many tourists in their thousands to flee the area in fear of what they may face in these tragic times, with Pakistan and India nearly reaching a point of Brinkmanship. This can be seen as in 2018 only 850,000 tourists foreign and domestic visited Kashmir, in comparison to 2017 where 1,200,000 had visited showing a net decrease of around 41%. India does really want to develop Kashmir and make it stable then they must give Kashmiris their voice on making decisions about their future.

Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India has stated that his As a consequence of the heavy security, Jammu and Kashmir trans-

move to revoke article 370 is to boost the economy, however the state's economy is derived from its agriculture and tourism which could take a potentially large sums of time to rebuild due to Modis action. As his actions have led to protests within ports of apples, plums and pears are being affected, as due to the shortage in trucks, the freight charges have been increased by 30% due to the rare supply of cargo trucks. As a result, the increase in freight charges will be carried over on to the con-

the area, and due to this large insta-

sumers as the prices increase as well, bility foreign companies and counties to cover the businesses costs. This is are less likely to invest in the area one of the greatest impacts on their due to Kashmir not having a clear industry as agriculture especially that

future, and there being a major concern over the law and order. of apples are key to the local economy of Jammu and Kashmir. As its ap-

Yet, India’s Prime Minister

Narendra Modi’s vision of transitioning Kashmir's economy is by opening land to outside consumers, which will result in an influx of new settlers causing the displacement of the locals. This could hence cause a great change in the demographics of the area making Kashmiris second class

ple industry employs around 3.5 million people in the several phases of the production and sale of apples. Furthermore, hardly any batches and supplies have left the area which could the cause the value of the apples to depreciate by 30 - 50% as the crop is seen to be highly perishable. To add on due to the cut in the citizens on their own soil. However, if phone activity many firms can no

longer communicate with the growers which has subsequently led to 50 – 60% drop in the arrivals, as the logistics have only been made worse. India in 2016 would give out 2.9 milthe largest producers in the world. Yet traders believe peace will raise yields and output as India’s output is now seen that of a halve of China’s and a quarter of the US’s. Placing these restrictions in Jammu and Kashmir have led to lower yields because many farmers may now feel demotivated as the freedom has been snatched away, causing their productivity to dramatically decrease and subsequently a cut in the output produced. Pakistan has a result of India’s actions downgraded diplomatic ties with India and has stopped bilateral trade with one another. This can be seen evident as Pakistan have reacted by halting their main train service to India, whilst having also banned Indian movies as pressure grew for Pakistan to take immediate action. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has stated that “We’re not looking at the military option. We’re not.” Any rise in tensions would between India and Pakistan will cause the US to become hostile and threaten to dismantle any enhanced relationship with the US and Pakistan. And this would be a major blow as back Pakistan's economy, as they struggle to overcome a severe balance of payments and require the aid of Trump to do so as it is estimated to grow 2.4% this financial year. Islamabad have also been seen to have registered a $6 billion IMF programme, leading to Imran Khan bringing unpopular reforms such as increasing electricity and petrol prices and developing their tax base. Pakistan will be looking to consolidate a deal with the US in Afghanistan, if goes well could open a part of the $2 billion worth of aid and security assistance which was overlooked last year. In conclusion we can clearly see that having Kashmir under curfew leads into the dark, in which there may be no return especially if it reaches a point in which nuclear war may become an option. This sees good for no economy on either side (Pakistan and India) similarly with Kashmir which could hence lead to the area facing an economic depression which will cause a disaster within South-Asia. The only way this

problem can be solved is if both countries have a dialogue with each other and communicate which could decrease tensions, yet India doesn’t

see this as an option as they believe

India is one of the largest growers of apples in the world.

lion tonnes of apples making it one of Pakistan needs the US to help bring

this is a domestic issue.