NEWS
THE WESTERN PRODUCER | WWW.PRODUCER.COM | OCTOBER 25, 2012
HOGS | OUTLOOK
WEATHER | OUTLOOK
Hog producers hope rainbow doesn’t fade
Dry winter forecast may get wetter La Nina-El Nino transition | Shift in weather patterns behind reasons for updated predictions BY SEAN PRATT SASKATOON NEWSROOM
BY ED WHITE WINNIPEG BUREAU
Hog producers can see the other side of the chasm but don’t know if the road will run out before they get there, the Canadian Swine Health Forum heard. “Is there anything to build a bridge, to get them over,” wondered Manitoba Pork Council vice-chair Rick Bergmann in an interview. Dozens of producers attended the highly technical veterinary conference, something that delighted organizers of the yearly, four-year-old event. It also suggested to some that Canada’s core hog producers not only plan to survive the crisis, but play to the national industry’s strengths once the financial crisis has ended. “I’m pretty enthused,” said board chair Florian Possberg. “I think that what we’re seeing here is producers and industry recognizing that health is really important for our Canadian advantage.” However, Possberg acknowledged that the Canadian industry is under incredible strain, with high feed costs causing massive losses only shortly after the H1N1 outbreak, the commodity price collapse of 2008-09 and the large appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Some sow liquidation is occurring in the United States, but most Canadian hog industry officials think Western Canada is shrinking the herd faster and more profoundly. Possberg said he believes 40,000 sows have been taken out of production since late summer, including some from relatively new facilities. “For most of those, it’s unlikely they’ll return soon or at all,” he said. “A number of established producers have decided to exit.” Claude Vielfaure, whose company HyLife operates one of North America’s largest hog production companies and one of two significant Manitoba slaughter plants, said the specialized, stand-alone nature of many prairie hog farms has made this crisis hit harder than in other places. “There seem to be more problems in Western Canada, and maybe that’s because of people being more diversified in Ontario and the U.S.,” said Vielfaure in an interview. “Maybe some of these companies had better advantages, better profitability for the past two or three years, so they may have had more money in their pockets to get through these lows.” Bergmann said the farmers he has talked to want to stay in the business but have a short-term cash squeeze. It is almost universally accepted that the herd liquidation now occurring will lead to greater profitability for the next few years, but simple sur vival until next spring is the problem. “It appears there’s some challenge with government understanding the urgency of the situation,” said Bergmann. Possberg, who founded Big Sky Farms but is not involved with that company now, was upbeat about the industry regardless of the present crisis.
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An unusual shift in weather patterns could save dry prairie farms from getting drier. Forecasters were certain this summer that the world was transitioning from a La Nina event into an El Nino event, which would gain strength in the fall. That meant western Canadian farms would be in for a drier-thannormal winter after many of them had already endured a moisturestarved summer. However, the warming trend in the tropical Pacific Ocean that is a sure sign of an El Nino has suddenly backed off to the point where the water is actually a little cooler than normal. It is a puzzling development. “These events tend to reach their peak during the late fall, like November into December and early January,” said Bryce Anderson, senior agriculture meteorologist with DTN. “But instead, here we have everything backing off. So that’s what’s kind of unprecedented.” Anderson is still calling for a drierthan-normal winter for the prairie region, simply because that has been the recent pattern. However, it won’t be as parched as it would have been if a full-fledged El Nino had developed. A storm system that crossed the eastern half of the Prairies earlier this month delivered 13 to 38 millimetres of rain and snow to some of the driest parts of the region. “That certainly helped out. The big question is, is this the beginning of what’s going to be a series of these types of events or was this just sort of a one shot deal?” said Anderson. His hunch is it’s the latter. “At this point, we still have to lean
more toward the drier side just because that pattern has been pretty evident.” Megan Evans, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com, is slightly more optimistic. She thinks it will be drier than normal through December and then improve in January and February as a series of Alberta clippers deliver much-needed snow across the Prairies. The quick-moving storms will not provide large amounts of snow, but there will be enough of them that the Prairies should experience near normal moisture conditions this winter. One caveat is that the AccuWeather forecast is based on a weak El Nino, but current conditions are closer to neutral. Anderson said it’s such an odd year that anything could happen. “There is an outside possibility that later in the winter we could see a La Nina develop in the Pacific. That’s not out of the question.” That would deliver more wintertime moisture across the Prairies. DTN is forecasting normal to above normal temperatures this winter, which again would be a continuation of the existing trend. That’s in contrast to the AccuWeather forecast, which is calling for slightly colder-than-normal temperatures in northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba as quick shots of Arctic air sweep across the Prairies. “That’s going to feel profoundly different from last year,” said Evans. Last year was the third warmest winter on record in Canada. Temperatures were 6 C above normal for the prairie region, which is a substantial difference. For instance, the average temperature in Saskatoon for the September through March period was -1.3 C, which was 5.6 C above normal.
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Weather forecasters say it’s an odd year and anything can happen. If a La Nina weather pattern develops, expect more snow this winter. | FILE PHOTO
Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather.com is predicting cooler than normal temperatures with normal snowfall across much of the Prairies in its latest winter forecast.
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