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THE WESTERN PRODUCER | WWW.PRODUCER.COM | OCTOBER 20, 2016
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QUALITY PROBLEMS
Tough grain will slow export pipeline An abundance of high moisture, low quality grain may force farmers to find bin space on their farm BY BRIAN CROSS SASKATOON NEWSROOM
Prairie farmers facing the mammoth task of harvesting millions of bushels of tough or damp grain before winter will likely need to store it on their farms a bit longer than normal. Delivery opportunities for low quality grain may be limited, at least in some areas, said Wade Sobkowich, executive director of the Western Grain Elevators Association. With excess moisture and snow, a larger-than-normal proportion of the near-record grain crop will likely require drying and blending. That means the flow of crops from prairie farms to export position could be slower than normal. “Depending on what you have … yes, you may have to wait a while before you’re going to get a delivery opportunity,” Sobkowich said. “I think it’s hard to make a general statement to say that it’s going to take longer for people’s grain to get to market this year,” he added. “It just depends on the individual producer, where they are, what they have and what the company they’re dealing with has for sales programs at any given period of time.” With the long prairie winter closing in, it is unknown how much additional grain will be taken off fields, but most of it will come off tough. Sobkowich said Manitoba’s harvest is furthest advanced among prairie provinces. Unharvested acres there are mostly canola and soybeans that are less prone to degrading factors. In Saskatchewan, roughly 15 to 20 percent of acreage was still in the fields as of late last week. Alberta’s harvest is even a bit further behind. With the total prairie harvest estimated at roughly 75 million tonnes, Western Canada’s total grain and oilseed exports are expected to exceed 35 million tonnes this year. “I’m going ballpark that we’re looking at exporting somewhere between 36 and 38 million tonnes,” Sobkowich said. “Companies will be blending to try to meet customer specifications so it will get exported overseas; it’s
Winter blew in early over many parts of the Prairies, leaving crops standing or in swaths. | just a matter of where and at what price and at what specs.” Wheat quality will be variable. Sobkowich said most of western Canada’s CWRS wheat will be marketed as No. 2 this year. Higher-than-normal vomitoxin levels are expected to complicate marketing and handling. “Some of it (CWRS) will be No. 1 but the majority will be sold as No. 2 red because that’s what we can do with it (due to) the vomitoxin levels.” Vomitoxin or D ON levels in spring wheat are higher than normal and in many areas grain companies will have trouble meeting DON thresholds established by overseas buyers. “(For CWRS) the DON spec to Japan and the United States is 1.1 (parts per million) and to the EU its 1.25, so it’s a challenging spec to meet,” Sobkowich said. Most durum exports will be sold at No. 3, he added. Elevator companies estimate that only 10 percent of this year’s durum crop is No. 2 or better, 50 percent is expected to be No. 3 and 40 percent
will grade No. 4 or worse. DON and HVK levels (hard vitreous kernels) will be the major degrading issues.
Companies will be blending to try to meet customer specifications so it will get exported overseas, it’s just a matter of where and at what price and at what specs. WADE SOBKOWICH WESTERN GRAIN ELEVATORS ASSOCIATION
Anecdotal reports suggest that a significant proportion of the durum will come in well above the European Union’s DON threshold of 1.75 p.p.m. Rex Newkirk, research chair in feed processing technology at the University of Saskatchewan, said it is unclear how much durum will be sold into domestic feed markets. Conversations with farmers and
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industry stakeholders suggest that DON levels in durum are among the highest the industry has ever seen. A significant proportion of this year’s durum crop might be unfit even for livestock consumption. Farmers are advised to know what they have and market it carefully. High-quality milling wheat will be relatively rare so growers who have it should ensure they’re selling it for maximum value. Delivery opportunities for quality CWRS and durum will be plentiful, Sobkowich added. “The good quality stuff, companies are wanting to take because they want to use it to blend off lower quality to meet customer specs,” he said. By all accounts, growers will spend a lot of energy this winter managing large volumes of lowquality, high moisture grain. A lot of grain will need to be dried or at least turned frequently often to avoid spoilage. In some areas, that task will become even more onerous given that much of the available bin
space is already filled. With colder temperatures just around the corner, many producers are expected to use winter aeration to freeze their high moisture grain. That strategy could work in a grower’s favour but it can be risky, particularly if a prolonged period of mild weather occurs in late fall or winter. One Saskatchewan grower said grain companies in his area were refusing to take deliveries of tough grain even though they have significant commercial grain drying capacity. “I’ve actually been very disappointed in the grain companies,” said the grower, who spoke on the condition that his identity wouldn’t be revealed. “We’ve got large facilities (elevators) out here that have huge grain dryers but none of them are firing up. “They don’t want any grain that’s over 14.5 percent, even though there’s no such thing as dry grain in the country anymore.” brian.cross@producer.com
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