GO! MAGAZINE •
THE BULLETIN • FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2011
PAGE 25
movies
Actress In the way that such matters are decided by currents wafting in the air, Natalie Portman has emerged as the consensus choice. She is very good in “Black Swan.” That’s beside the point. Everyone is good in this category. But she gets to “act” the most, which to the academy often means “act out in emotional displays.” She was required to do that by the logic of the role, which had Oscar written all over it.
Supporting Actor Geoffrey Rush. Because it could be a “King’s Speech” year. Christian Bale seems to have a good chance, but when a movie gets anointed, its aura shines on its other nominees, as if voters are thinking, “Well, if I voted for ‘King’s Speech,’ doesn’t that mean I keep voting for it?”
Supporting Actress That tendency won’t carry over to this category, however, because while Helena Bonham Carter as the king’s wife was splendid, as she almost always is, the role wasn’t showy. The academy has a way in this category of anointing a plucky young newcomer, and the winner will be Hailee Steinfeld, who in fact played the lead in “True Grit,” no matter what the academy thinks. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split support for “The Fighter.”
Director Well, here I’m more or less forced to choose Tom Hooper of “The King’s Speech,” because he won the Directors Guild Award, and you know the mantra: The DGA winner wins the Oscar 90 percent of the time. Contrarian speculation would be risky.
Original Screenplay Again, “The King’s Speech” by David Seidler. When a film becomes the chosen one, its glories trickle down, and I expect this to be a royal year. If I’m wrong, I’m very wrong. (The BEST screenplay, in terms of sheer writing, was Mike Leigh’s “Another Year,” which could easily be adapted more or less whole for the stage.)
Adapted Screenplay Here “The Social Network” will win its one major Oscar, although deserving more. “Adaptation” often means “loosely inspired by,” and Aaron Sorkin’s
ROGER EBERT brilliant dialogue and construction were wholly original (as were apparently many of his facts). You have to ask yourself what, precisely, the nominated “Toy Story 3” was adapting, apart from the continuing plight of the toys.
Foreign Film Here we have an interesting situation because the voters in this category have to see all the nominees. That leads to victories by dark horses, like the wonderful Japanese corpse-preparation movie “Departures” a few years ago. This year, I’ve seen three of the five, but friends who have seen the Quebec film “Incendies” at festivals say it’s great. If they’re right, it’s “Incendies.”
Animated Feature “Toy Story 3,” don’t you suppose?
Documentary Feature What should win: “Restrepo,” a year in the life of an outpost in Afghanistan. What will win: “Inside Job,” about how Wall Street is run by crooks getting rich on our money.
Cinematography Roger Deakins has been nominated eight times. This is the year he will win, for the magnificent look and feel of “True Grit.”
Film Editing “The Social Network” was all but brought to life through the skills of Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, who took a complex group of interlocking plots, events and times, assembled them at breakneck speed, and made the sucker PLAY.
Art Direction Sometimes the art direction of a film just reaches out and rubs you by the chinny-chin-chin. Tim Burton is famous for the look of his films, and the work by Robert Stromberg and Karen O’Hara was magical in his “Alice in Wonderland.”
Costume Design Any good “Alice” starts with
the costumes. Colleen Atwood dressed Wonderland.
Makeup Academy voters do not, I suspect, spend a lot of time thinking about this category, and often simply vote for the MOST makeup. That would indicate Rick Baker and Dave Elsey for “The Wolfman.” But I have an instinct not many voters saw it, and here I predict Adrien Morot, for the way he aged Paul Giamatti in “Barney’s Version.” Warning: Baker has a good track record.
Documentary Short “Killing in the Name,” a documentary about a Muslim who visits and questions the sources of the terrorist ideology that inspired a suicide bomber to kill 27 people at his wedding.
Live Action Short Film I haven’t seen these. But I’ve looked at their trailers at http:// bit.ly/hJ4OPo, and on that basis I expect “Na Wewe” to win. Roger Ebert is a film critic for The Chicago Sun-Times.
Original Score The most effective score in foreground terms was by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, for “The Social Network.” But I believe a “King’s Speech” year will also sweep up this Oscar, for Alexandre Desplat.
Original Song I would vote for “Coming Home,” from “Country Strong.” But in recent years this category has tended to be dominated by animation, and Disney/Pixar will take home the Oscar for “We Belong Together,” the heartfelt dirge of forgotten playthings in “Toy Story 3.”
Visual Effects Continuing to apply my theory that in the “lesser” categories the winners tend to be the most visible in the most-seen films, I think this is where the sensational film “Inception” wins. It rolled up an entire city.
Sound Editing “Inception,” for its skill in negotiating dreamscapes and levels of reality. Not nominated was “The Social Network,” which juggled all those rapid-fire conversations.
AMPAS
From previous page
Sound Mixing Also known as “Sound Design,” this is the category that creates the space our ears sense around characters. I expect the winner to be “The Social Network,” which created intricate conversations in challenging locations like a Silicon Valley club.
Animated Short Teddy Newton’s “Day & Night” played before “Toy Story 3,” was original and inventive in the battle suggested by its title, and will win.
out the Check AWARDS Y M ACADE R PARTY OSCA nday on Su Theatre. ower e at th T Page 16 See ils. for deta
OSCAR FACTS • Jeff Bridges, who won the lead actor Oscar last year for “Crazy Heart,” is up in the same category for his performance as Rooster Cogburn in “True Grit.” Only two actors have won Academy Awards in the lead actor category two years in a row — Spencer Tracy won for 1937’s “Captains Courageous” and 1938’s “Boy’s Town,” and Tom Hanks earned Oscars for 1993’s “Philadelphia” and 1994’s “Forrest Gump” • Two lead performer nominees — Jesse Eisenberg, 27 (“The Social Network”), and Jennifer Lawrence, 20 (“Winter’s Bone”), — would be the youngest ever to win in their categories. Adrien Brody holds the record for youngest lead actor for his win for 2002’s “The Pianist” at age 29; Marlee Matlin was 21 when she won lead actress for 1986’s “Children of a Lesser God.” • Joel and Ethan Coen’s remake of the Western “True Grit” earned 10 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. The original 1969 version of the film received only two nominations — lead actor for John Wayne, who won the award, and best song. • Speaking of Westerns, only three films in the genre have won the Best Picture Oscar: 1930-31’s “Cimarron,” 1990’s “Dances With Wolves” and 1992’s “Unforgiven.” • If Colin Firth wins for lead actor for his role as King George VI in “The King’s Speech,” he will be the first actor to win playing a king of England since Charles Laughton in 1932-33’s “The Private Life of Henry VIII.” • Scott Rudin, with “The Social Network” and “True Grit,” becomes the first producer since 1974 to have two films in the Best Picture race. Francis Ford Coppola and Fred Roos did it with “The Godfather 2” and “The Conversation.” • Besides 14-year-old supporting actress nominee Hailee Steinfeld, several of this year’s acting nominees began their careers as child or teenage actors, including Natalie Portman, Javier Bardem, Michelle Williams, Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, Eisenberg, Nicole Kidman, Helena Bonham Carter and Bridges. • Composer Randy Newman picks up his 20th Oscar nomination for his original song, “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3.” He won the original song Oscar for “If I Didn’t Have You” from 2001’s “Monsters, Inc.” — Susan King, Los Angeles Times