Newsletter UNESCO-UDLAP Chair 4

Number 4 · July- August · 2017

UNESCO CHAIR ON

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS NEWSLETTER

Number 4 · July-August · 2017

CHIR MEMBERS Director Polioptro F. Martínez Austria udlap

CONTENTS

MEMBERS Víctor Hugo Alcocer Yamanaka Comisión Nacional del Agua

Felipe Arreguín Cortés Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua

Erick R. Bandala González Desert Research Institute, EE.UU.

Benito Corona Vázquez

udlap

Johanness Cullmann

World Meteorological Organization Geneva

Carlos Díaz Delgado

Centro Interamericano de Recursos del Agua, uaem

Carlos Escalante

Facultad de Ingeniería, unam

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Chair´s Seminar <<Rio Bravo/Grande Management under climate change scenarios>>

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New Publication of the Chair: Facing the Threat: Climate Change

Matthew Larsen

Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, EE.UU.

Carlos Patiño Gómez

udlap Sofía Ramos University of Arizona. EE.UU.

María Elena Raynal Gutiérrez

udlap

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Heat waves, an increasing risk

José Angel Raynal Villaseñor

udlap José D. Salas Colorado State University, EE.UU.

Jim Thomas Desert Research Institute, EE.UU.

Juan Valdes

University of Arizona. EE.UU.

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http://www.udlap.mx/catedraunesco/

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unesco water related Chairs in Latin America and Caribbean

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Recomended Web site http:// thewaterchannel.tv/

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

SEMINAR

INTEGRATED RIO BRAVO BASIN MANAGEMENT UNDER CLIMATECHANGE SCENARIOS he UNESCO Chair on Hydrometeorological Risks, with the support of the National Council of Science and Technology, held a seminar on water management in the Rio Bravo/Grande Basin under climate-change scenarios, on June 29th and 30th, 2017.

The Rio Bravo river basin is one of the most extensive basins in North America, with an area of about 540,000 km2. It is a binational basin, shared between the United States of America and Mexico. It is part of a semi-arid and arid region and displays a great climatic variability. As a result of global warming, a significant decrease in precipitation is expected in the coming years, with an increase in temperature that will directly affect the current hydrological cycle.

The water available in the Rio Bravo is potentially sufficient for use in Mexico and the United States, provided an integrated water management is achieved in the basin, with support by information systems and management models that facilitate the analysis of climate-change scenarios and management alternatives to achieve good water governance.

To achieve this, serious scientific work is needed, which will provide the ground for basin management in Mexico and the

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THE GENERAL PURPOSE OF THE SEMINAR WAS TO ANALYZE THE CURRENT AND FUTURE SITUATION OF THE RIO BRAVO BINATIONAL WATERSHED, INCLUDING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AS WELL AS TO ELABORATE ON RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INTEGRATED WATER MANAGEMENT

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Number 4 · July-August · 2017

THE RIO BRAVO RIVER BASIN IS ONE OF THE MOST EXTENSIVE BASINS IN NORTH AMERICA, WITH AN AREA OF ABOUT

540 MIL km2

United States, as well as the binational cooperation strategies required between both countries, avoiding scarcity scenarios and conflicts that no one wants.

The seminar brought together a leading group of experts in water management and in the Rio Bravo/Grande Basin.

The general purpose of the seminar was to analyze—from a multidisciplinary perspective—the current and future situation of the Rio Bravo binational watershed, including the effects of climate change, as well as to elaborate on recommendations for integrated water management.

The seminar’s program was developed as follows: TIME

ACTIVITY

LECTURER JUNE 29, 2017

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8:00 to 9:00

REGISTRATION

9:00 to 9:30

Opening ceremony

9:30 to 10:15

Inaugural conference

10:15 to 10:30

Break

10:30 to 11:15

Water Governance in the Rio Bravo Basin

Manuela Armas Carrillo, PhD Universidad de las Américas Puebla

11:15 to 12:00

Social participation in the Rio Bravo Basin

Gonzalo Bravo Vera, MSc Communications and Community Relations Manager, becc

12:00 to 12:15

Break

12:15 to 1:00

Keynote lecture Water management tools during decision-making processes. Experiences in Rio Bravo/Grande

Samuel Sandoval Solis, PhD University of California at Davis

1:00 to 1:45

Water balance in the Rio Bravo Basin

Alfredo A. Ocón Gutiérrez, MSc Engineering and Binational Water Affairs Manager, conagua

Víctor Hugo Alcocer Yamanaka, PhD Technical General Deputy Director, National Water Commission (conagua)

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

1:45 to 3:30

Comida

3:30 to 4:15

Analysis of long-term drought variability in the Rio Bravo Basin

4:15 to 4:30

Break

4:30 to 5:15

Hydrological modeling of the Bravo river

Paul Hernández Romero, MSc

5:15 to 6:00

Integrated water management in the Rio Bravo/ Grande Basin

Oscar Ibáñez, PhD Autonomous University of Ciudad Juárez

Daniel Núñez Pérez, PhD

Friday, June 30, 2017 TIME

ACTIVITY

LECTURER

9:00 to 9:45

Keynote lecture Use of geoinformatics tools for the analysis of climate-change trends in IPCC scenarios and their potential impact on irrigation districts in the Rio Bravo Basin.

9:45 to 10:00

Break

10:00 to 10:45

Binational geographical information system of the Rio Bravo/Grande Basin

Carlos Patiño Gómez, PhD

10:45 to 11:30

Dynamic models for the management of the Rio Bravo Basin

Polioptro F. Martínez Austria, PhD

11:30 to 11:45

Break

11:45 to 12:45

Round table Perspectives on water management under climate-change scenarios Carlos Díaz Delgado, PhD (cira) Oscar Ibáñez, PhD (uacj) Mr. Jesús Luévano Grano (cila) Christian Ebel, PhD (giz) Samuel Sandoval, PhD (U. of California)

12:45 to 1:00

Break

1:00to 1:45

Master lecture Binational aspects of the Rio Bravo Basin Management

1:45 to 2:00

Delivery of certificate and closing

Carlos Díaz Delgado, PhD Miguel Ángel Gómez Albores, PhD Inter-American Center of Water Resources

Moderator: Polioptro F. Martínez Austria, PhD

Jesús Luévano Grano MSc Secretary of the CILA (Mexican Section)

THE INTERVENTIONS AND ARTICLES OF THE PARTICIPANTS TO THE SEMINAR WILL BE INTEGRATED INTO A BOOK ON THE BASIN WATER MANAGEMENT, IN PREPARATION.

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Number 4 · July-August · 2017

New publication

FACING THE THREAT: CLIMATE CHANGE part of its activities in water sciences research, and those of the unesco Chair on Hydrometeorological Risks, the University of the Americas Puebla has published the book Facing the Threat: Climate Change, which brings an important collection of papers related to hydro-meteorological risks and climate change.

The book’s editor has been Dr. José A. Raynal Villaseñor, with the co-edition of Drs. María Elena Raynal-Gutiérrez, Dr. Benito Corona-Vásquez, Dr. Polioptro F. Martínez-Austria and Dr. Carlos Patiño-Gómez, all of them members of the unesco Chair in Hydrometeorological Risks.

As

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UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

part a:

part b:

part c:

Hydrometeorological Risks

Climate Change

Keynote Lectures

Assessing trends in rainfall erosivity and extremes using an index-flood model with local likelihood smoothing Martin Hanel, Jan Kyselý and Adam Vizina

Estimating hydraulic roughness coefficients for floodplain forests using source point densities from the U.S. Geological Survey 3d elevation program Emitt C. Witt III and Scott A. Hoffman

The 7+ initiative: a measure for global climate change adaptation José A. Raynal-Villaseñor and Maria E. Raynal-Gutiérrez

Forested watersheds, climate change, ecosystem services, and natural hazards Mathew C. Larsen

Hydrologic uncertainty pertaining to freeboard analysis-unit hydrograph analysis Rolando Bravo and Matthew A. Coe

Pattern of rainfall anomalies and rural water supply in Sudano-Sahelian region of Nigeria Aliyu Tambuwal Umar

Bias correction methods for water resources management Adam Vizina, Martin Hanel, Roman Kožin and Stanislav Horaček Smart water management in complex basins through integrated decision support Technologies Eva Contreras Arribas, Raquel Gómez Beas and Antonio Linares Saez

Geographic information system: a useful tool for water management under climate change conditions Carlos Patiño Gómez, Polioptro F. Martínez-Austria, Paul Hernández Romero, Ruth Mondragon Monroy and David E. Guevara Polo

The climate changeair pollution connection: adsorption as a mitigation strategy David Ramírez, Weimin Xi, Kailas Malwade and Oluwatosin Oyelakin Dark clouds and silver linings: climate change and environmental health case study: Mexico John R. Nuckols

Understanding past and present hydro-meteorological risks at Nejapa Valley Coral García-Govea Coral, Víctor Rosales-Sierra, StacieMarie King, Salvador Aquino, Patricia Rosales-Sierra and Reza Issa

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Number 4 · July-August · 2017

HEAT WAVES, AN INCREASING RISK Polioptro F. Martínez Austria y Erick Bandala he number of climate-related natural disasters (floods, droughts, tropical storms, and heatwaves) and particularly their social and economic impact is steadily increasing.

According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization, 2014), between 1970 and 2012; 8,835 disasters caused by droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones, extreme temperatures, landslides and fires, or epidemics or insect infestations directly related to meteorological and hydrological conditions were reported worldwide. These disasters produced 1.94 million deaths and economic losses by 2.4 trillion dollars. The ten worst reported disasters mainly occurred in less developed countries.

In 2013, according to a report by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology and Disasters (Guha-Sapir, Hoyois, & Below, Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2013: The numbers and trends, 2014), damages from meteorological disasters amounted to 52.4 billion dollars, 21% higher than the annual average for the period 2003–2012. Two of these

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ACCORDING TO THE WMO, BETWEEN 1970 AND 2012;

8,835 DISASTERS CAUSED BY DROUGHTS, FLOODS, WINDSTORMS, TROPICAL CYCLONES, EXTREME TEMPERATURES, LANDSLIDES AND FIRES

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

Event

Country

Number of deaths

Philippines

7,354

India

6,054

United Kingdom

760

Heat wave, April–June

India

557

Earthquake, September

Pakistan

399

Japan

338

Pakistán

234

People’s Rep. of China

233

Earthquake, October

Philippines

230

Flood, September–October

Cambodia

200

Total

16,359

Cyclone (Haiyan), November Flood, June Heat wave, July

Heat wave, May–September Inundación, August Flood, July

Table 1. Ten natural disasters that caused the largest number of deaths in 2013 (Guha-Sapir, Hoyois, & Below, Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2013. The numbers and trends., 2014)

IN 2013, ACCORDING TO A REPORT

BY THE CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND DISASTERS DAMAGES FROM METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS AMOUNTED TO

52.4 BILLION DOLLARS disasters were responsible for 13,408 deaths. It should be noted that eight of the ten major disasters in terms of loss of human life were related to extreme weather and three of them were related to heat waves, a phenomenon that receives much less attention than floods and droughts.

Although heat waves have relevant impacts on the environment and agricultural production, they mainly affect human health, leading to disorders that result from minor alterations, intensification of respiratory diseases, of the di-

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Number 4 · July-August · 2017

When body temperature exceeds 40°C, primary damage is caused by direct cellular toxicity, leading to:

CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM MANIFESTATIONS COMA AND HEART PROBLEMS

LIVER DAMAGE, DELIRIUM

CHANGES IN BEHAVIOR

SEIZURES

Only one complication in any of these conditions can lead to death (Díaz Caravantes, Castro Luque, & Aranda Gallegos, 2014).

gestive system up to and including the collapse of the body’s ability to regulate its temperature through changes in circulation or sweating. Effects of heat waves on health can lead to death in extreme cases. The elderly and young children are especially vulnerable to hot waves.

When body temperature exceeds 40°C, primary damage is caused by direct cellular toxicity, leading to changes in behavior, central nervous system manifestations, seizures, liver damage, delirium, coma, and heart problems. Only one complication in any of these conditions can lead to death (Díaz Caravantes, Castro Luque, & Aranda Gallegos, 2014).

There are several factors that contribute to people suffering health effects or death from excessive heat, such as socioeconomic level, which primarily impacts on the access to health services, age, place where the victim dwells (ru-

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Mortality per 10000 inhabitants

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

Max. Temp. in August

ºC

Figure 1. Total mortality and extreme temperature for the city of Mexicali, Mexico, for the month of August in the period 1990– 2010 (Adapted from Martínez-Austria & Bandala, 2017).

ral or urban area), if he/she suffers from a disease that increases the risk, different levels of exposure (structure of housing and type of clothing), community response to extreme heat (social prevention), and pollution in the city where people live (Díaz Caravantes, Castro Luque, & Aranda Gallegos, 2014; D. Peng, et al., 2011).

Mortality during heat waves, contrary to the common belief, is not only linked to the so-called “death by heat stroke.” During extreme temperature events, the risk of death increases for people with chronic or other pre-existing diseases, such as asthma and other respiratory diseases, kidney disease, or diabetes. In this way, total mortality has been shown to increase dramatically during extreme heat waves. Figure 1 shows, as an example, the relation between total mortality and extreme temperature for the city of Mexicali, Mexico, recorded in the month of August in the period 1990–2010.

Heat waves happens and have important effects beyond developing regions or countries. For example, one of the most pernicious effects was recorded in 2003 in France, where one of the most disastrous heat waves occurred in at least 50 years. Many deaths occurred; i.e., 4% over average in Lille and 142% in Paris, which meant the deaths of thousands of people in a few days (Stephanie Vandentorren, 2004).

IN INDIA, HEAT WAVES ARE OFTEN EXPERIENCED, BUT THE MOST INTENSE ONES HAVE OCCURRED IN RECENT YEARS, BETWEEN 2010 AND 2014. IN MAY 2010, AN EXCESS OF DEATHS

43.1%

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Number 4 · July-August · 2017

At the United States, there have been many heat waves of different magnitudes and most of them are responsible for a number of victims. Anderson and Bell (Anderson & Bell, 2011) studied mortality in the United States caused by this phenomenon in the period from 1987 to 2005. Some percentages in the increase of deaths stand out for different years: Los Angeles, 109% (1939); St. Louis, 91%–159% (1966); and New York, 113% (1948).

In 2013, in England, more than 1500 people died because of the high temperatures caused by a heat wave. In July of that year, the hottest day was recorded, breaking the record since 2006 and surpassing 30°C (90F) (Bawden, 2013).

In India, heat waves are often experienced, but the most intense ones have occurred in recent years, between 2010 and 2014. In May 2010, an excess of deaths (43.1%) was estimated as a consequence of heat waves, that is, approximately 1,350 deaths. In 2012, 5.4% of a total of 22,960 traffic-related deaths were attributed to heat strokes (Skandan, 2012).

IN 2013, IN ENGLAND, MORE THAN

1,500

PEOPLE DIED BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY A HEAT WAVE.

REFERENCES Anderson, G. B., & Bell, M. L. (2011). Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities. Envieronmental Health Perspectives, 210-218.

Bawden, T. (2013, July 18). The Independent. Retrieved Marzo 01, 2015, from Heatwave death toll: Up to 760 killed and total may double as temperatures above 30C set to continue: independent.co.uk D. Peng, R., Bobb, J. F., Tebaldi, C., McDaniel, L., L, .. B., & Dominici, F. (2011). Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119(5), 701-706. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002430 Díaz Caravantes, E., Castro Luque, L., & Aranda Gallegos, P. (2014). Mortalidad por calor natural excesivo. Frontera México, 26(52), 155-177.

Guha-Sapir, D., Hoyois, P., & Below, R. (2014). Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2013. The numbers and trends. CRED. Guha-Sapir, D., Hoyois, P., & Below, R. (2014). Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2013: The numbers and trends. Brussels: CRED. Martínez-Austria, P. F., & Bandala, E. R. (2017). Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region. Atmposhere, 8(53), 13. doi:10.3390/atmos8030053 Skandan, K. (2012). Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India. New Delhi: National Crime Records Bureau.

Stephanie Vandentorren, F. S.-C. (2004). Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wave. American Journal of Public Health, 1518-1520.

World Meteorological Organization. (2014). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extrems (1970-2012). Geneva.

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UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

WATER RELATED UNESCO CHAIRS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AT UNESCO, THE NATURAL SCIENCES SECTOR ADDRESSES ALL BRANCHES OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, THERE ARE 264 UNESCO CHAIRS IN ALL SUBJECTS OF NATURAL SCIENCES.

he UNESCO Chairs carry out education, research and information exchange activities related to programs belonging to UNESCOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main areas of action: education, natural sciences, humanities and social sciences, culture and communication and information. They are one of the most important mechanisms of this organization to enhance collaboration and productivity in research, dissemination of science and culture, as well as in the preparation of human resources and research at the global level. The UNESCO Chairs integrate networks around high-level research and education programs around a specific topic of global or regional interest.

At UNESCO, the natural sciences sector addresses all branches of science and technology. Throughout the world, there are 264 UNESCO Chairs in all subjects of natural sciences.

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Number 4 ¡ July-August ¡ 2017

UNESCO CHAIRS IN NATURAL SCIENCES

264 28

Chairs in the world

Chairs in Latin America

WATER RELATED CHAIRS

39 7 14

Chairs in the world

Chairs in Latin America

In Latin America, there are 27 Chairs in all natural sciences: seven in Argentina, one in Bolivia, seven in Brazil, four in Chile, two in Costa Rica, two in Cuba, one in Guatemala, one in Jamaica and two in Mexico.

There are 38 UNESCO Chairs related to water in the world, and seven of them in Latin America and the Caribbean, which are the following: unesco Chair on Water Resources Sustainability Established in 2005 at the University of San Carlos, Guatemala. unesco Chair in Water in the Knowledge Society Established in 2008 at the Mexican Institute of Water Technology, Mexico. unesco Chair in Water and Education for Sustainable Development Established in 2013 at the Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Argentina unesco Chair in Water, Women and Development Established in 2006 at the Federal University of Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil. unesco Chair on Water, Women and Governance Established in 2014 at the Global Institute of Higher Studies in Social Sciences (iglobal), Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic unesco Chair on Water and Culture Established in 2015 in the Faculty of Humanities and Education, University of the Republic (udelar), Uruguay unesco Chair on Hydrometeorological Risks Established in 2016 at the University of the Americas Puebla.

Mexico

UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

Water related Chairs in Latin America

unesco Chair on Water Rources Sustainability Established in 2005 at the University of San Carlos, Guatemala unesco Chair in Water in the Knowledge Society Established in 2008 as the Instituto Mexicano de Technología del Agua, Mexico unesco Chair in Water and Education for Sustainable Developtement Established in 2013 at the Universidad Na cional del Litoral, Argentina unesco Chair on water, women and Developtement Established in 2006 at the Federal University of Our Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil. unesco Chair on Water, Women and Governance Established in 2014 at the Instituo Global de Altos Estudios en Ciencias Sociales (iglobal), Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic unesco Chair on Water and Culture Established in 2015 at the Faculty of Humanities and Education, University of the Republic (udelar), Uruguay unesco Chair on Hydrometeotological Risks Established in 2016 at the Universidad de las Américas Puebla (udlap), México

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Number 4 ¡ July-August ¡ 2017

RECOMMENDED SITE

THE WATER CHANNEL he Water Channel is a major water information initiative on the Internet.

You can find videos of interest on water in the world as well as resources for education in water and climate change. Among the popular videos are Water is a Gift, Soil and Water Conservation, and The Arab World: A Region Craving for Water.

Another important feature is access to Webinars on usefulness issues. For example, the Webinar Strengthening Water Integrity scheduled for July 11.

The site maintains up-to-date news and relevant resources on a wide range of water-related issues, such as The Maya Biosphere Reserve or Artificial Recharge: A Real Solution.

The site is developed with support from the UNESCO Water Institute (IHE), META, Aqua for All, Studio Meerker and Cap-Net.

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We highly recommend you visit http://thewaterchannel.tv/

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NEWSLETTER OF THE UNESCO CHAIR ON HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RISKS

EDITORIAL COORDINATIONS

Editor

Polioptro F. Martínez Austria

Style correction

Aldo Chiquini Zamora Andrea Garza Carbajal

Editorial design

Angélica González Flores

The unesco Chair on Hydrometerological Risks Newsletter is a bimonthly publication which reports on the activities of the Chair and its members, unesco news related to it, as well as general information on disasters and hydro-meteorological risks. It is elaborated by the Universidad de las Américas Puebla. Ex hacienda Sta. Catarina Martir s/n. C.P. 72810, San Andres Cholula, Mexico.

www.udlap.mx/catedraunesco polioptro.martinez@udlap.mx