AGRICULTURE: THE SUNRISE SECTOR

by Dr Dirk Troskie, dirkt@elsenburg.com

TWhen you hear the word “farming”, what is the first image that comes to mind? Perhaps it is “Oumaoupa plaas”, or a herd of cows munching in a green meadow, a koppie, a windmill, or the wide open plains of the Karoo? Perhaps a massive, high-tech tractor or a modern “vertical farm”? All these images are correct and are informed by personal experience; after all, the majority of South Africans (of all races) are still first or second generation urbanites.

A significant section of our society has less flattering things to say. Agriculture is a “dying sector” and is not worth any further attention. It conjures up images of failing land reform, farm murders, exploited farmworkers and natural resources.

In the end, nothing in South Africa is ever simple or viewed through a single lens. Recently, things became even more complicated. Towards the end of March 2020, most South Africans had a firsttime encounter with empty shelves in supermarkets. Fortunately, the empty shelves turned out to be short-lived. They were the result of panic buying rather than anything else, but COVID-19 brought its own series of challenges to agriculture and food supply. These challenges included:

• disruptions in value chains (e.g. bottlenecks in ports and limited space for air cargo);

• disrupted markets (bans on wine, tobacco and flower sales, and closure of restaurants);

• loss of market share (the export ban and port/airfreight inefficiencies handed shelf space to our competitors on a golden platter);

• increased cost of compliance (e.g. induced production inefficiencies due to social distancing; cost of personal protection equipment, etc.);

• changing consumption patterns (domestic and abroad); and

• a weakening exchange rate.

The list could go on, but the main distinguishing factor between COVID-19 and other disasters is that the production base of farming remained intact. During a drought, trees die and the veld deteriorates. A flood washes away orchards, roads and other infrastructure. An outbreak of avian influenza leads to the culling of ostriches and chickens. None of these happened during COVID-19. On the positive side, COVID-19 did underline the importance of farming and the vulnerability of food supply to the average consumer.

Nevertheless, we believe that “COVID-19” will carry the same value as a dividing line commonly associated with terms such as “WWII” and “9/11”. At the same time, we still need to address other challenges such as climate change and social disruptions. How do we, in the agricultural sector of the Western Cape Province, proceed in this post-COVID-19 period?

We believe that the agricultural sector is ideally placed to lead the regeneration of the provincial economy and to create jobs. Furthermore, it is important that transformation should not be seen as a challenge, but rather as a mechanism to achieve economic growth and job creation targets. In other words, we need to grow the cake rather than cutting it into increasingly smaller pieces. The Western Cape has established an excellent track record of successfully supporting land reform projects, and the key to this approach is the partnerships established with commercial agriculture.

In 2014, we commissioned an external and independent evaluation to determine the success of the 246 land reform farms that we were supporting at the time. Based on 39 criteria covering the triple bottom line, the assessment found that 62% of the farms could be classified as successful. During 2018 we conducted another external and independent evaluation covering the 243 farms we supported in the intervening years and, using the same criteria, a success rate of 72% was recorded. Given the negative press that land reform often receives, I am convinced that these figures would come as quite a surprise to many people. The global rule of thumb is that 90% of new businesses fail within the first three years. The provincial department is very proud of the success of our support to our new farmers.

Let us return to economic growth and job creation. Despite perceptions to the contrary, there are certain areas in the Western Cape where irrigation farming can be expanded. For instance, if the wall of the Clanwilliam Dam were to be raised, the height of the inlet canal to the Brandvlei Dam increased, and the latent potential of the Buffeljags Dam unlocked, this would be possible. By harnessing the strengths within the agricultural sector, we believe that these projects could create 22 200 direct jobs and add more than R7 billion to farming income over the next decade.

At the same time, the sector needs to question the underlying fundamentals and principles of the way we farm. Some arid parts of the province are experiencing the sixth consecutive year of drought, and the question can be raised whether the drought is an aberration or a new normal. At the same time, entrepreneurs producing plantbased or vat-grown protein are increasingly confident that their product will replace 60% of meat by 2040, while lamb is an iconic product of the Karoo. What does this mean for the future of farming in our arid areas? There is indeed a whole range of innovative options available for farmers in the Karoo, of which one is to cherish and embed the uniqueness of Karoo meat before it becomes generic. The Western Cape is commissioning a diagnostic and design evaluation of the future of farming in the arid areas of the province. The process will open new and creative opportunities for all role players.

The role and function of the countryside in our society needs to be re-evaluated. One thing COVID-19 has demonstrated is that a person does not have to be in the office to have a productive day at work. What type of environment should we create in the countryside to attract those individuals who do not want to waste two hours commuting to work every day?

Of course, all of this means that we, as government as well as a sector, need to embrace new technology. The Western Cape Department of Agriculture has, with the aid of the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB), conducted a diagnostic and design evaluation of the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the agricultural sector of the province. What emerged very clearly is that new technologies need to be embraced and used to achieve our objectives. Although the department has already internalised a whole range of opportunities, COVID-19 has accelerated this process. Indeed, the department has identified 11 innovations that will improve its internal operations in addition to the 21 changes, which will enhance its external services in the post COVID-19 era.

Finally, it is crucial to build new relationships post-COVID-19. On the one hand, these relationships will have to foster trust between local producers and consumers. Modern developments, such as the immersive technologies that we are experimenting with as part of product marketing, may be one avenue to be followed to this end. On the other hand, interactions outside the immediate environment need to receive attention. Africa should be a core focus for the development of further synergies.

Nobody can predict what will happen in the future. However, what we are sure of is that agriculture is the space where growth, innovation and creativity will blossom over the next couple of decades. Agriculture is the space to be in for those who are young in body and at heart. AP