4 Technical and Economic Feasibility
Primary energy [EJ/year]
600 500
2050
Other renewables Hydropower Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
2010
700
400 300 200 100
1950
2000
2050
ES ES SAG SA E GE GE A IM GEA Mix AG S (2 E up ) RE RCP ply (3 M IN 3 P ) D D RE RE (4) M MIN CIP ER E GE D Ad (5) M AR ETL am KA Ad (6) L E am M T ( ES AP ME PO P Bl 7) L u S M ES ene SAG ES A e (8 d ) M AP rgy ES e [r] E W am AP ne evo EC (9 ad rgy lut C ) va [r]e ion 1 (1 nc vo 20 0) ed lut 0 re ion 8 (1 vo 2 1 lut 01 ) ion 0 ( 20 12) 10 W (13 BG ) U (14 )
1900
1)
1850
en cy (
0 1800
M
M
ES
SA
M
GE
GE A E
ffic i
Year
Figure 4.2-4 Global primary energy demand in transformative scenarios, broken down according to energy carriers. For the period 1800 to 2008, actual primary energy demand is shown; for the period between 2010 and 2050, the results from the MESSAGE GEA Efficiency scenario are shown. On the right-hand side, there is an overview of the other scenarios analysed: the figure shows the energy mix in 2050 for each respective scenario. Important characteristics of these scenarios are summarised in Table 4.2-1. Source: WBGU, based on data by Nakicenovic, 1998; EREC and Greenpeace, 2008, 2010; IEA, 2008b; Edenhofer et al., 2009a, 2010; IIASA, 2009; GEA, 2011
Final energy [EJ/year]
500
400
Other forms of energy Electricity Energy gases Liquid energy carriers Liquid or gaseous energy carriers Solid energy carriers
2050 2010
600
300
200
100
2000
2050
ffi ci en c E
SA ES
M
M
G
G
EA E G G SA ES M
) E G E E IM GE A M AG A ix E Su (2 RE RC pp ) M P ly ( IN 3 3) D P RE R D ( M EC 4) IN IP E D M M Ad (5) AR ER am KA GE (6 M ) L E ES ET TL AP M M ES PO P B (7) e L E M SA nerg SAG ES lue A ES P (8 y AP en [r]e E W dam ) a erg vo EC ( 9 dv y[ lu an r]e tio C1 ) ce vo n 2 (1 d lut 00 0) re io vo n 8 (1 lu 20 1) tio 10 n 20 (12 10 ) W (1 BG 3 U ) (1 4)
1950 Year
SA
1900
ES
1850
y (1
0 1800
Figure 4.2-5
130
Global primary energy demand in transformative scenarios, broken down according to energy forms. For the period 1800 to 2008, actual final energy demand is shown, the figures for the period between 2010 and 2050 are taken from the MESSAGE GEA Efficiency scenario; on the right-hand side there is an overview of the other scenarios analysed: the figure shows the final energy demand and its mix in 2050 for each respective scenario. Source: WBGU, based on the data shown in Figure 4.2-4