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ruling Barisan Nasional/UMNO government as crucial, and all its election planning emphasizes that. The allocation of seats to be contested by the coalition parties reflects this. Of 165 constituencies in West Malaysia (consisting of the Malay peninsula), 51 will be contested by PKR, 52 by Mahathir’s PPBM, 35 by the Chinese-based DAP and 27 by the Islamist reformist Amanah. In addition, PKR will contest a number of seats in East Malaysia, consisting of Sarawak, Sabah and Labuan, in northern Borneo. How many is not clear at the time of writing, and it may well be that the PH does not wish to finalize arrangements for the 57 constituencies there without trying first to find local allies and agree on an apportionment of seats with them. Political life in East Malaysia, which accounts for just over 20 percent of Malaysia’s population, differs significantly from that in peninsular Malaysia. Unlike in Western Malaysia, where Malays form a clear majority, less than 15 percent of its people are (Advertisement)
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Malays. The proportion of Chinese is roughly similar, while slightly over half the population belong to indigenous people of Borneo. Understandably, issues of the status and rights of Malays that can fire up the electorate in peninsular Malaysia have less resonance in Eastern Malaysia. In the past, the Barisan Nasional has largely been able to regard Eastern Malaysia as a safe vote bank. In 2013, when it lost its two-thirds majority in the federal parliament following heavy losses of seats in Western Malaysia, it retained 47 of the 57 seats in the east, making up over one in three of its federal total of 147. It can be expected to do all that it can to defend its patch there. One instrument that it can use is the laws of Sabah and Sarawak that allow them to control the movement of citizens from elsewhere into their territories (including between the two states). They have been used in the past to bar politicians from opposition parties who are resident in Western Malaysia from travelling to Eastern Malaysia to campaign. This has made it difficult for the PKR and other opposition parties to build up support in these territories that could decide the outcome of the next election. The PH certainly faces an uphill struggle. Gerrymandered constituencies meant that, in the 2013 elections, the BN/UMNO government lost the majority of the popular vote but retained a safe majority of seats—and that was in an election in which nearly all electoral races were twohorse contests between government and opposition candidates. This time around, however, due to the exit of the Islamist party, PAS, from the opposition coalition that fought the 2013 election, there are likely to be numerous three-cornered contests that will split the opposition vote. The Merdeka Center opinion pollster suggests that the outcome of the election may well be an increased share of the popular vote for opposition parties, coupled with the BN achieving a two-thirds majority of parliamentary seats. As to issues in the election, although race, religion and democratic rights all figure as elements among the public’s con-
WASHINGTON REPORT ON MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS
cerns, a Merdeka Center poll conducted between Nov. 4 and 7, 2017 indicated that the main concerns for 72 percent of the electorate were economic. It was perhaps significant that young people, who might be most expected to take an interest in political reform, were the age group found to be the most stressed when contemplating their economic future.
U.N. JERUSALEM VOTE: ASIA CONDEMNS TRUMP MOVE
Donald Trump’s Dec. 6 announcement that he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was overwhelmingly opposed when the U.N. General Assembly voted on the resolution by Turkey and Yemen criticizing the move on Dec. 21. In Asia (excluding the Middle Eastern countries), not a single state voted with Israel and the U.S. Twenty-three, including such U.S. allies as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, voted in favor of the critical resolution. Perhaps in response to the threats made by Trump and Washington’s U.N. representative, Nikki Haley, to take account of countries’ votes in providing aid, the Philippines abstained, and a number of other Asian countries—Bhutan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Timor Leste and Turkmenistan—were absent when the vote took place. Earlier, immediately following Trump’s announcement, critical statements were issued by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, attending the Bali Democracy Forum, donned a black-and-white keffiyeh and declared her country’s condemnation of the move. “Indonesia will always stand with Palestine,” she said. Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry said that the decision could have “grave repercussions” for the region’s security and stability. A Singaporean Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said, “The status of Jerusalem is a sensitive and complex issue with a long history. Any premature and unilateral action to alter the status of Jerusalem will impede progress for a peaceful resolution of the Middle East and Palestinian problem.” ■ MARCH/APRIL 2018