activisms_54-70_May 2013 Activisms 4/2/13 3:09 PM Page 58
Given the tremendous number of impediments to good policymaking, the real question, Walt concluded, should be “Why does it [U.S. foreign policy] ever succeed?” —Dale Sprusansky
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STAFF PHOTO D. SPRUSANSKY
(L-r) Emma Sky, Ambassadors Samir Sumaida’ie and Ryan Crocker, and moderator Rajiv Chandrasekaran discuss the current state of Iraq.
(L-r) Zbigniew Brzezinski, moderator Jessica Tuchman Mathews and Maj. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss the lessons of the Iraq war.
STAFF PHOTO D. SPRUSANSKY
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held a March 21 event at its Washington, DC offices to discuss the 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The event, titled “America’s Second-Longest War: Taking Stock,” assessed the current state of the Iraqi nation and the financial cost of the war to the U.S. The event began with a panel discussion featuring former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, former Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. Samir Sumaida’ie and Yale University professor Emma Sky. There currently is “a great deal of dissatisfaction among Iraqis,” particularly when it comes to the job environment and the security situation, Ambassador Sumaida’ie noted. “The country seems to be in a situation where it’s not moving at all,” he lamented. Oil plays a central role in the calculus of Iraqi politicians, the ambassador explained, because “whoever controls the resources controls the system of patronage that builds the power structure.” If this reality is to change, he said, an atmosphere of accountability must be instilled in Iraqi political culture. American influence in Iraq has decreased since 2003, Ambassador Sumaida’ie continued. “The Iraqi government does not see the American presence as an integral part of its political calculation,” he observed. “There is more weight for what the Iranian regime thinks about political decisions in Iraq.” Agreeing that “Iranian influence in Iraq is greater and ours is less,” Ambassador Crocker nevertheless dismissed the idea that Tehran calls the shots in Iraq. Just because the U.S. no longer has a large military presence in Iraq does not mean it can’t have influence in the country, he argued: “You can still have substantial leverage in international politics without military forces.” Ambassador Crocker urged President Obama in his second term to “engage Iraq more frequently and at higher levels,” something he said the administration has failed to do thus far. Addressing another aspect of the current situation, Professor Sky observed that “Relations between Kurdish leaders and Baghdad have probably never been so poor…. We’re back at the beginning of 2003/2004.” The Kurds, she said, do not trust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and fear he is becoming an autocrat. In particular, Kurds re-
STAFF PHOTO D. SPRUSANSKY
Iraq Ten Years Later
Prof. Linda Bilmes says the Iraq war could end up costing the U.S. $6 trillion. main frustrated at the lack of progress made on key issues such the status of the disputed Kirkuk governorate, Sky noted. Believing they will not be able to resolve their differences with Baghdad any time soon, she said, Erbil is actively pursuing a policy of economic independence. THE WASHINGTON REPORT ON MIDDLE EAST AFFAIRS
In the second session, Harvard University professor Linda Bilmes provided an assessment of the Iraq war’s cost. The U.S. has spent $3 trillion dollars on the war to date, Bilmes said, and likely will end up spending a total of $5-6 trillion on the war by the time all veterans’ benefits are paid. Bilmes pointed out that, historically, the bill for war comes due 30-40 years after the war is completed, as this is when veterans’ healthcare costs reach their peak. She cited as an example the fact that World War II payments reached their peak in the late 1980s. The Iraq war caused oil prices to spike tremendously, which had an extremely devastating effect on the American economy, Bilmes noted. Before the war, the price of oil was $25 a barrel and was forecast to remain in this range, she said, but since 2003, oil has rarely gone below $100 a barrel, peaking at $140 a barrel in 2006. “The U.S. lacks any kind of system to track war costs,” and thus has no way of making sure money is spent wisely and efficiently, Bilmes disturbingly pointed out. “The Pentagon’s accounting systems are so flawed that there’s no way to even perform an audit,” she added. MAY 2013