Figure 10 (continued) Expected probability (and 90 per cent confidence limits) of passing most courses by NCEA level 3 achievement score and school decile and ethnic group
Ever Pasifika
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Expected probability
Expected probability
Ever MÄ ori
0.6 0.5 0.4 Decile 1-2
0.3
Decile 3-8
0.2
0.6 0.5 0.4 Decile 1-2
0.3
Decile 3-8
0.2
Decile 9-10
0.1
Decile 9-10
0.1
0.0
0.0 0
20
40
60
80
100
0
NCEA level 3 achievement score
20
Sole MÄ ori
60
80
100
Sole Pa sifika
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
Expected probability
Expected probability
40
NCEA le v e l 3 achie v e me nt score
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0 0
20
40
60
80
100
NCEA leve l 3 achieve ment score
0.0 0
20
40
60
80
100
NCEA le ve l 3 achievement score
5.8 School decile and gap year It has been shown that students with below-average achievement scores have higher likelihoods of passing most of their courses if they take a year off before starting their tertiary studies (figure 7). However, the extent of the improvement in university performance depends on the school the student attended, and as will be shown, to which ethnic group they belong. Figure 11 shows the expected likelihood of passing most courses by school decile categories. It can be seen that the improvement in performance with a gap year is significantly higher for students from low-decile schools. This improvement is dramatic. Comparing the top two graphs in figure 11, it can be see that the students from low-decile schools have a significantly higher likelihood of passing most of their courses for achievement scores below 50, in contrast to the results for students who do not take a gap year. Then, for students with achievement scores above 50, the students from low-decile schools match the academic performance of other students. Again, this is in contrast to the pattern seen for students who progress directly to tertiary study. The lower three graphs in figure 11, which present the same data, show the comparison by students who take a gap year or not. Again, the improvement for low-decile
Academic success at first year of university
Ministry of Education
25