4. A year from now, you’ll wish that you had started out today

A year from now, you’ll wish that you had started out today 4.

Trying to understand When, How, and Why things will happen on the market is sometimes very hard. Why things will NOT happen (when it should) is even harder. In my world, I try to collect as much data as possible and narrow it down to understandable facts. I gather reports and studies from almost every institute available. If you want to dig deeper into any market, be as source critical as possible and use the most updated information you can find. Gather knowledge as a start and then continue refilling with accurate and fresh data along the way.

With all of the information boiled down to something usable for this industry and with a Nordic perspective, I build a time frame, a matrix. From day one, we start to create a storyboard for this book. In this process, when you gather information about the present and for the future, the data is often different depending on its origin, who paid for (sponsoring) it, who’s it aimed at, so on. Maybe the source of information is a supplier claiming what they can or will achieve in their own upcoming R&D projects. Next generation often drives on top of already existing generations, etc. I see development, or a change and shift of value as a part of our ongoing evolution not so often revolution. Through demographics and cultures, different needs, and new demands. This has been a theme throughout my now 40 years of passion for transformations.

The next transformation will not only be driven by new technology; it will be pushed forward by a change in needs, new demands, and by adding more values. New technology will be an enabler that can disrupt, cut links in the chain, lowering the total costs, shortening processes – and new add values. On top of that, my passion is about taking this to a new level. Taking this trend into a great future for this industry. My trademark in business is also to find out what will NOT happen in a transformation. A big part of that is figuring out why things work out in a predictable way or why they don’t. For some reason or another, things don’t always turn out the way they should. It can be due to culture, timing, technology, demand, sustainability, etc. It’s like looking for a needle in a haystack, but when you find the needle everything seems 100% natural and you’ll make fewer mistakes and save both time and money from that point on. Remember, it’s still OK to fail but ensure you learn from those mistakes and they will make you even stronger. So, what do I mean by “a year from now you’ll wish that you had started out today”? We’re in the beginning of the next big transformation; it’s time for the packaging industry. All of the vendors and supplier have sharpened their knives for a while and the technology is there and proven? Talking of foreseeing the future, one big part of that is as also the low economic cycles of 8-10 years that goes down and then goes up again – that’s the only thing we really know. If we look back at least 100 years we can see how the low economy follows the American 2x Presidential elections. Will that change? Not so far, but the last high economy was the second longest (more than 8 years) after the one leading up to the Kreuger crash in 1929. Both of them were followed by the two worst recessions known to mankind.

Now we have passed the top and are preparing for the low economy to get a grip. Meaning that you and your customer will raise questions about what will happen now and where you’re going. If you hear these questions from your customer, get up and seize the moment! Take the opportunity to create a dialog! It’s the best possible reason to start your transformation we have ahead of us. Keep reading this book and I hope you’ll understand what I mean. If you see demand and business going down, you must act proactive with your customer, not with your competitions. Find out how you can change and add new value together. All transformations start in a low economy and so will this. “A year from now you’ll wish that you had started out today”. It’s time to join the flow and change. We have a lot of new steps to be implemented in this transformation.

In this high economy, the technology for packaging has now developed and tested and the first early adopters is now migrating analog over to digital. The brand owner’s orders are getting shorter and shorter for every year and we see increasing in numbers of new SKU (stock keeping units). With digitalization, much of the information part has turned electronic. It’s found on the Internet instead of being printed at all. When it comes to marketing, many brand owners have found out the hard way that the Internet doesn’t fill that need by itself, without the physical printed communication that connects with the consumer. In this circle of high economy, the brand owners CMOs (Chief Marketing Officers) have lowered the marketing budgets with as much as 10% per year, favoring social media and the product packaging itself including both labels and packaging. More SKUs, shorter runs, and less to stock. It has become more and more important for the product to stand out in the battle of getting the attention of the consumer. You must, now more than ever, catch the customer’s eye when they make their decisions. In a high economy, corporations add more resources to what they already are doing. They don’t really change a winning formula. It’s only in a low economy that they must, and they must take the time to change. Order-volume goes down, changes come through adding value. Prices and margins go down, companies are saving capacity. It’s time to follow the flow and one thing is dead certain, the low economy will end one day, and it will then be followed by a new high economy – but please, that one will not come up where it went down (change). The high economy will resurface at a new location with different needs and new demands. That’s why you also must change. If you are properly adapted with the new business model by then, you’re standing in pole position for the next high economy.