Monterey County Travel Impacts Report 2022

Page 1

The Economic Impact of Travel

Monterey County

2022 Preliminary Estimates

May 2023

PREPARED FOR

Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County 2022 Preliminary Estimates Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau 5/25/2023 PRIMARY RESEARCH CONDUCTED BY Dean Runyan Associates 833 SW 11th Avenue Suite 920 Portland, Oregon 97205
Table of Contents Summary................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Direct Travel Impacts / Summary Table .................................................................................................................... 7 Direct Travel Impacts / City-Level Summary Table 8 Direct Travel Impacts / Detailed Table 9 Overnight Volume & Average Expenditures 11 Secondary Impacts……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 12 Glossary................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Methodology........................................................................................................................................................................................ 15
Monterey County 2022 Preliminary Estimates

Monterey County / Summary

Travel Impacts 2022p

Visitor activity in Monterey County aligned with national travel trends in 2022. The county welcomed more overnight and day visitors compared to 2021, and spending associated with these travelers was only 5.8% below the prepandemic high of $3.2 billion in 2019. The growth of travel-related spending in 2022 can be attributed to the increased visitation and price inflation of goods and services – gasoline and accommodations showing the largest levels of inflation.

• Travel spending in Monterey County increased 19.1%, from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $3.1 billion in 2022.

• Direct travel-generated employment grew by 5,175 jobs, a 25.6% increase over 2021.

• Direct travel-generated earnings increased to $1.5 billion, a gain of 33.9% compared to 2021.

• Tax receipts generated by travel spending increased to $307.3 million, a gain of 17.8% compared to 2021.

Monterey County’s travel industry increased 19.1% in 2022. Travel spending remains 5.8% below spending in 2019.

Note: These estimates for Monterey County are subject to revision if more complete data becomes available. Estimates for 2022 are preliminary – thus “2022p.”

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The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by
RunyanAssociates
Dean

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts

Summary Table

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percent change calculated on unrounded figures. Employment and earnings estimates include CARES Act support.

7 The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates Avg. Annual % Chg 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022p 2021-2022p 2016-2022p Spending ($Million) Total (Current $) 2,759.3 2,820.2 3,135.6 3,240.5 1,554.8 2,564.5 3,054.1 19.1% 1.7% Earnings ($Million) Earnings (Current $ 1,166.1 1,198.8 1,353.8 1,420.1 1,056.3 1,090.0 1,459.9 33.9% 3.8% Employment (Jobs) Employment 24,859 24,498 26,628 27,158 20,338 20,194 25,369 25.6% 0.3% Tax Revenue ($Million) Total (Current $) 247.0 250.8 285.4 297.8 183.2 260.8 307.3 17.8% 3.7% Local 117.0 124.7 146.4 153.5 97.0 148.0 176.0 18.9% 7.0% State 130.0 126.1 139.0 144.3 86.3 112.7 131.3 16.4% 0.2%

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts

City-Level Summary Table, 2022p

Carmel Marina Monterey Pacific Grove Salinas Seaside Unincorporated/ Other Monterey County Spending ($Million) Total (Current $) 245.2 111.1 792.0 126.3 387.8 165.0 1,226.7 3,054.1 Earnings ($Million) Earnings (Current $ 117.2 53.1 378.6 60.4 185.4 78.9 586.4 1,459.9 Employment (Jobs) Employment 2,037 923 6,578 1,049 3,221 1,370 10,190 25,369 Tax Revenue ($Million) Total (Current $) 24.7 11.2 79.7 12.7 39.0 16.6 123.4 307.3 Local 14.1 6.4 45.6 7.3 22.3 9.5 70.7 176.0 State 10.5 4.8 34.0 5.4 16.7 7.1 52.7 131.3
8 The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts

Detailed Table

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percent change calculated on unrounded figures.

*Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement, and convention/trade shows.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022p Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,673.8 2,725.7 3,030.3 3,127.6 1,511.9 2,492.5 2,954.1 Other Travel* 85.5 94.6 105.3 113.0 42.8 72.0 100.0 TOTAL 2,759.3 2,820.2 3,135.6 3,240.5 1,554.8 2,564.5 3,054.1 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel, STVR 1,951.7 1,964.1 2,214.3 2,280.8 1,145.1 1,881.4 2,169.3 Private Home 156.8 172.6 190.6 205.0 71.2 197.5 220.0 Campground 41.8 43.9 46.0 49.6 41.5 52.6 66.3 Vacation Home 58.5 63.3 71.6 73.3 100.7 90.5 92.2 Day Travel 465.0 481.7 507.8 518.8 153.5 270.6 406.4 TOTAL 2,673.8 2,725.7 3,030.3 3,127.6 1,511.9 2,492.5 2,954.1 Visitor Spending by Type of Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 712.1 716.0 835.4 879.1 449.2 896.6 1,078.2 Food Service 836.8 858.6 938.7 966.6 485.0 697.6 812.6 Food Stores 73.0 72.9 76.2 77.7 43.4 72.3 83.4 Local Tran. & Gas 207.9 224.0 260.7 266.7 102.6 183.8 221.8 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 366.8 367.8 392.8 394.0 184.2 269.9 299.9 Retail Sales 459.1 468.8 509.0 519.7 240.7 356.9 426.5 Visitor Air Tran. 18.0 17.5 17.5 23.8 6.9 15.4 31.6 TOTAL 2,673.8 2,725.7 3,030.3 3,127.6 1,511.9 2,492.5 2,954.1 9 The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates

Monterey County / Direct Travel Impacts

Detailed Table

Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Percent change calculated on unrounded figures.

*Other Travel includes resident air travel, travel arrangement, and convention/trade shows.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022p Travel Industry Earnings ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv. 636.8 656.4 743.9 786.1 561.2 637.8 866.5 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 387.9 396.7 438.6 454.5 348.6 336.6 465.0 Retail 77.3 76.0 85.3 86.4 87.0 88.4 100.6 Ground Tran. 28.3 31.9 46.3 49.4 17.6 17.2 16.9 Visitor Air Tran. 16.2 16.5 17.6 20.1 19.5 1.4 1.5 Other Travel* 19.6 21.3 22.1 23.5 22.3 8.5 9.4 TOTAL 1,166.1 1,198.8 1,353.8 1,420.1 1,056.3 1,090.0 1,459.9 Travel Industry Employment (Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv. 16,779 16,616 17,941 18,161 13,347 13,644 17,211 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4,774 4,668 5,065 5,358 3,749 3,617 4,953 Retail 2,202 2,092 2,269 2,218 2,091 1,991 2,170 Ground Tran. 663 675 899 976 763 725 808 Visitor Air Tran. 130 132 137 137 118 22 23 Other Travel* 312 316 317 308 270 195 203 TOTAL 24,859 24,498 26,628 27,158 20,338 20,194 25,369 Tax Receipts Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 117.0 124.7 146.4 153.5 97.0 148.0 176.0 Visitor 81.6 88.0 104.4 109.4 53.6 102.8 123.6 Business or Employee 35.4 36.7 42.0 44.1 43.4 45.2 52.4 State Tax Receipts 130.0 126.1 139.0 144.3 86.3 112.7 131.3 Visitor 91.8 91.6 102.8 106.5 50.9 74.1 85.6 Business or Employee 38.2 34.4 36.2 37.8 35.4 38.6 45.7 TOTAL 247.0 250.8 285.4 297.8 183.2 260.8 307.3
10 The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates

Monterey County / Overnight Visitor Details

Overnight Visitor Volume and Average Expenditure

Overnight visitor volume for Monterey County is based on cross-referencing visitor surveys and lodging data. Volume estimates therefore will differ from methodologies that rely solely on visitor surveys. Visitor Spending is a more reliable metric than Visitor Volume in accounting for changes in the travel industry, as it is more closely tied to economic data and lessens the variability from visitor surveys. Day travel estimates are not included because of data limitations.

Average Expenditure for Overnight Visitors, 2022p

52% Hotel, Motel, STVR share of overnight person-trips

Overnight Visitor Volume, 2020-2022p

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared
Person-Trip (Thousands) Party-Trips (Thousands) 2020 2021 2022p 2020 2021 2022p Hotel, Motel, STVR 1,429 2,088 2,263 431 639 693 Private Home 328 858 862 156 407 409 Other Overnight 1,026 1,106 1,238 383 408 454 All Overnight 2,783 4,051 4,362 970 1,454 1,556 Person-Nights
2020 2021 2022p 2020 2021 2022p Hotel, Motel, STVR 3,749 5,408 5,852 1,131 1,652 1,790 Private Home 1,151 3,004 3,019 546 1,426 1,433 Other Overnight 3,137 3,310 3,660 1,183 1,234 1,354 All Overnight 8,037 11,722 12,531 2,860 4,312 4,578 11 Party Person Length Party Day Trip Day Trip of Stay Size Hotel, Motel, STVR $1,212 $3,130 $371 $959 2.6 3.3 Private Home $154 $538 $73 $255 3.5 2.1 Other Overnight $117 $349 $43 $128 3.0 2.7 All Overnight $557 $1,637 $203 $584 2.9 2.7
Note: Private Home represents visitors staying with friends or family. (Glossary on page 14) by Dean RunyanAssociates (Thousands) Party-Nights
(Thousands)

Monterey County / Secondary Impacts

Total Employment 2022p

Note: Values may not add to totals due to rounding. Employment includes full-time employees, part-time employees, seasonal employees, and proprietors.

MOST DIRECT JOBS

MOST SECONDARY JOBS

Secondary Industry Group Direct Indirect Induced Total Grand Total Accommodation & Food Services 17,211 420 616 1,035 18,246 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 4,953 109 137 247 5,200 Trade 2,275 231 807 1,038 3,313 Transport 807 118 147 264 1,072 Professional and Business Services 122 1,861 519 2,380 2,502 Natural Resources and Mining 0 15 19 34 34 Construction 0 38 25 63 63 Manufacturing & Utilities 0 24 12 35 35 Information 0 132 61 192 192 Financial Activities 0 91 185 276 276 Education and Health Services 0 23 1,037 1,060 1,060 Other Services 0 189 430 619 619 Public Administration 0 95 105 201 201 All Industries 25,369 3,346 4,099 7,445 32,814
Accommodations & Food Services
Professional &
Services 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Accommodation & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Trade Transport Professional and Business Services Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Services Other Services Public Administration Direct and Secondary Employment Direct Secondary 77% 10% 13% Share of Total Employment Direct Indirect Induced 12 The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates
Business

Monterey County / Secondary Impacts

Total Earnings 2022p

Note: Values may not add to totals due to rounding.

MOST DIRECT EARNINGS

MOST SECONDARY EARNINGS

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p
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by Dean
Secondary Industry Group Direct Indirect Induced Total Grand Total Accommodation & Food Services 866.5 4.4 8.6 13.0 879.4 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 465.0 0.7 1.1 1.8 466.8 Trade 100.6 8.6 17.9 26.4 127.0 Transport 18.4 2.5 2.1 4.6 23.0 Professional and Business Services 9.4 80.9 16.5 97.3 106.7 Natural Resources and Mining 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 Construction 0.0 1.6 0.9 2.5 2.5 Manufacturing & Utilities 0.0 2.4 0.8 3.2 3.2 Information 0.0 8.6 3.5 12.1 12.1 Financial Activities 0.0 9.4 12.1 21.5 21.5 Education and Health Services 0.0 0.3 31.9 32.3 32.3 Other Services 0.0 4.6 8.0 12.6 12.6 Public Administration 0.0 4.6 3.1 7.6 7.6 All Industries 1459.9 128.5 106.8 235.2 1695.1
Accommodations
Services
Professional & Business Services 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Accommodation & Food Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Trade Transport Professional and Business Services Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing & Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Services Other Services Public Administration Direct and Secondary Earnings Direct Secondary 86% 8% 6% Share of Total Earnings Direct Indirect Induced
& Food

Glossary

Key Terms

Term Definition

2nd Home Homes under private ownership for personal use as a seasonal property where a lodging tax is not collected.

Day Travel A trip that involves non-routine travel of greater than 50 miles to the destination and but no overnight stay in the destination.

Destination Spending

Direct spending made by visitors in a destination. Interchangeable with “Visitor Spending.”

STVR STVR stands for “short term vacation rental.” The category includes private and semi-private lodging rented by owners or property management companies (e.g., Airbnb & VRBO).

State Taxes State taxes generated by travel spending.

Local Taxes City and county taxes generated by travel spending.

Direct Employment Employment generated by direct travel spending. It includes full-time employees, part-time employees, seasonal employees, and proprietors.

Direct Earnings

Total after-tax net income generated from travel spending. It includes wages and salary disbursements, proprietor income, and other earned income or benefits.

Other Spending Spending by residents on travel arrangement services and/or spending for convention activity.

Visitor Spending Spending by visitors in a destination.

Hotel, Motel, STVR Accommodation types that house transient lodging activity.

Other Overnight Overnight visitors who stay in a campground or 2nd home.

Private Home Personal residences used to host friends and family visiting overnight in the destination.

NAICS North American Industry Classification System.

Vacation Home Privately owned homes for personal use as a seasonal property.

Person Trip A trip made by a person to the destination.

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates 14

Methodology

Travel Impacts Methodology

The direct travel impacts reported in this analysis were estimated using DRA’s Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM). First developed in 1985, this model estimates direct impacts at a local level without relying on annual survey research. The “bottom up” approach of the RTIM involves modeling of private and public data at the county level, ensuring that the final findings correspond closely with the various travel indicators available for each respective county. Results are then aggregated to regions and the state or disaggregated to the city level based on relevant indicators at these geographic levels. The result is a detailed profile of taxes, employment, wages, and spending that can be tracked consistently over time.

The economic impact associated with day visitors and overnight visitors is a primary breakout included in this report. Lodging tax data and survey data on visitor expenditures inform estimates of total spending associated with overnight visitors who stay in commercial lodging in the studied region. DRA maintains its our own expenditure distribution database for each state we work in, with input from multiple major survey providers. Inventory of campgrounds are collected for commercial and public sites, and occupancy is modeled based on a representative subset of sites. Sales attributable to travelers staying in their second homes are calculated from inventories from the US Census and public information on average utilization rates. Visitation of friends and relatives (VFR) is generally stable across time and geography, the primary driver for a destination being the local resident population. Estimates of visitor spending related to day travel can be driven by several factors, including proximity to nearby populous areas, opportunities for recreation and shopping, and inventory of lodging options compared to surrounding areas. Baseline estimates for day visitation are calculated as a factor of overnight visitation, the factor being derived from regional results of national visitor profile data.

Spending on travel-related activities translates into jobs, earnings, and taxes. Calculation of these direct impacts relies on public data on jobs, wages, and business receipts by industry for each geographical area. State and local taxes on travelrelated business also factor into triangulating direct travel impacts.

Findings in this report have been compared to various public and private data sources to ensure that the economic impacts estimates are as accurate as possible. Key private data sources used for purposes of this analysis include STR, KeyData, AirDNA, and OmniTrak. Public data sources include the US Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), California Employment Development Department (EDD), and the city governments of Carmel, Gonzales, Greenfield, King City, Marina, Monterey, Pacific Grove, Salinas, Seaside, and Soledad in California.

The Economic Impact of Travel in Monterey County / 2022p / Prepared by Dean RunyanAssociates 15
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