VPR Gubernatorial Election Special Issue by Virginia Policy Review

Virginia Policy Review

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Virginia Policy Review

From the Editors ! In regards to natural rights, Virginia’s second governor Thomas Jefferson wrote, “the right to use a thing comprehends a right to the means necessary to its use, without which it would be useless." The citizens of Virginia have a right to make the political process their own. In such a caustic environment, however, the means necessary to putting the process to its correct use can be difficult to come by. Access to substance is obfuscated by extreme rhetoric. Last week, Politico characterized the Virginia gubernatorial race as “a scorchedearth contest with tens of millions in negative ads.” In another piece of charming imagery, the front page of the Washington Post’s October 20th edition featured the headline: “Va. governor’s race stews in the bitter aftermath.” On the same day, the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s editorial board simply threw up its hands. “We’ve had enough,” concluded its lead editorial, declining to endorse any gubernatorial candidate for the first time in the newspaper’s history. We understand the bitterness. We understand that turning out one’s base is politically necessary, and that negative campaigning is effective. We respectfully submit, however, that character assassination is not the ideal way to go about selecting the next governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. A focus on policy is important in any race, but especially in this one, pervaded as it has been by the assumption that voters are too disillusioned to bother with the issues. Helping to provide a sound basis in substance was our motivation for this Gubernatorial Election Edition of the Virginia Policy Review. Attorney General Cuccinelli and former DNC Chairman McAuliffe have graciously provided detailed responses to specific policy questions regarding infrastructure development, education, and economic growth. The candidates’ complete responses are printed as the feature of this edition. Also included are six pieces authored by six Virginians—all graduate students at the University of Virginia’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy—providing analysis on each candidate’s proposals. We hope that this edition provides a gateway through which Virginians can access and engage with the substance of their policies, and the future implications for the Commonwealth. To paraphrase the father of the University of Virginia, “without the means necessary to its use, the process is useless.”

Very Sincerely, The Editorial Board of the Virginia Policy Review

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Staff Acknowledgements: ! Co-Editor-in-Chief:

Caitlin Cummings Benjamin W. Lynch

Managing Editor:

Victoria Catanese

Executive Director:

Frank Bontempo

Senior Copy Editor:

Kyle Schnoebelen

Senior Editors:

Rebecca Beeson Alex Dumitriu Christopher Palmer

Director of Outreach:

Simone Egwu

Director of Events:

Yuhuan Fu

Associate Editors: Minahail Amin

Yuwa Ikhinmwin

Rebecca Beeson

Topher Lancaster

Michael Boch

Malcolm McGregor

Sama Ehtesham

Baylee Molloy

Dan Graulich

Elsa Schultze

We welcome your thoughts. Please forward any comments, questions, or concerns to virginiapolicyreview@gmail.com or visit us online at www.virginiapolicyreview.com.

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Table of Contents: ! Context I.

II.

Virginia as a Purple State: Increasing Diversity, and Negativity, Across the Commonwealth Geoffrey Skelley, editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Governorship of the Commonwealth Raymond Scheppach, former executive director of the National Governor’s Association and UVA professor

III. Letter from the College Republicans and University Democrats of the University of Virginia Elizabeth Minneman, President of the UVA College Republicans Madeline DuCharme, President of the UVA University Democrats

FEATURED: Candidate Interviews I.

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli

Ken Cuccinelli is Virginia’s Attorney General. Prior to assuming this role, he was a leading conservative member of the Virginia Senate from 2002 until 2010. His experience as a small business owner and an attorney prepared him for his role in the General Assembly where he served on the Courts of Justice Committee, Transportation Committee, Local Government Committee, Rehabilitation and Social Services Committee, and the Agriculture, Conservation and Natural Resources Committee. II.

Mr. Terry McAuliffe Terry McAuliffe is a businessman, entrepreneur, and dad who has lived in Fairfax County, Virginia for over 20 years. He is the son of Jack McAuliffe who was an Army Captain in World War II and Millie McAullife who raised Terry and his three brothers. McAuliffe attended Catholic University and Georgetown Law School.

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! Analysis Infrastructure VII. Candidate Cuccinelli’s Proposed Transportation and Infrastructure Policies MPP Student, Class of 2014 at the University of Virginia

VIII. Candidate McAuliffe’s Proposed Transportation and Infrastructure Policies Madison Busch, MPP Candidate at the University of Virginia

__ Education IX. Candidate Cuccinelli’s Vision for Virginia’s Teachers 49 Kelly Dietz, MPP and Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Virginia

Candidate McAuliffe’s Education Platform: A focus on Community Colleges Natalie Roper, MPP Candidate at the University of Virginia

__ Economic Growth XI. Candidate Cuccinelli’s Jobs Plan and its Impact on Virginia Caitlin Connolly, MPP Candidate at the University of Virginia

XII. Candidate McAuliffe’s Economic Platform Alex Dumitriu, MPP Candidate at the University of Virginia

! ! !

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! Virginia as a Purple State: Increasing Diversity, and Negativity, Across the Commonwealth Geoffrey Skelley

The editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics discusses Virginia’s electoral future. Politically, “the Old Dominion is now the New Dominion.” While it’s a fairly tired phrase at this point, anyone paying attention to Virginia’s recent election results would quickly affirm its veracity. Virginia has featured strong two-party competition at the state level since Linwood Holton (R) won the governorship in 1969, but prior to 2008 the state was easy to define politically. During presidential elections, Virginia always went Republican, and the Democrats who won statewide elections were all relative moderates. Then in 2008, now-President Barack Obama (D) won Virginia, becoming the first Democrat to win the state at the presidential level since 1964. Obama’s victory reflected underlying demographic and social changes over the last decade or so. Exit polling in 2008 found that John McCain (R) won 60% of the white vote – the same portion as former President George W. Bush (R) won in 2000. But Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and, eight years later, McCain lost the state by over six. The increasing size of the non-white population in Virginia and its share of the vote made the difference. In 2000, 78% of Old Dominion voters had been white; in 2008, that figure shrank to 70%. Obama won 83% of the non-white vote in 2008, a ten-point increase over Al Gore’s (D) take in 2000. Obama’s larger vote share among an expanding non-white electorate proved to be almost the entire electoral difference between 2000 and 2008.

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! Comparing the decennial census figures for 2000 and 2010 illustrates how the non-white vote has increased. In 2000, Virginia’s population was 70.2% non-Hispanic white; ten years later, that figure had fallen to 64.8%. While the AfricanAmerican portion of the population remained relatively stable (20-21%), the state’s Asian-American population grew from 3.7% to 5.5% and the Hispanic population increased from 4.7% to 7.9%. In conjunction with its increasing racial and ethnic diversity, more and more Virginians are not originally from the Old Dominion. For the first time in the state’s history, less than half of the state’s residents were born here (49.9% as of the 2010 census). In fact, over the last century, Virginia saw the largest decrease in nativity of any state. This shift has had political ramifications: a Public Policy Polling survey in August 2012 found that Virginians are divided politically based on how long they have lived here. Respondents who had lived in Virginia for 30 years or longer favored Mitt Romney 51%-44%, but their counterparts who have lived here for less than 30 years backed Obama 56%-38%. While the poll found that Obama had equal support from native and non-native Virginians, “the length of stay” factor in the Old Dominion indicates that younger native Virginians – a more diverse group – were far more inclined to back the president. Virginia’s nativity rate, however, had already been falling years before the state went Democratic in 2008. An important subfactor within the declining nativity rate is the increasing diversity and backgrounds of people moving to the state. The foreign-born percentage of the state’s population grew from 5.0% in 1990 to 11.4% in 2010. As of 2011, 47% of those who were foreign-born in Virginia had become naturalized citizens, making them eligible to vote. Moreover, these foreign-born

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! individuals have American-born children who are now reaching voting age. National figures show that minorities are more likely to move across state lines. Although this was previously true, the sheer numbers have increased, particularly among Asian and Latino groups. As of 2011, the top three countries of birth for foreignborn Virginians were El Salvador, India and South Korea. In 2000, about 8% of the state’s population was neither solely white nor black; in 2010, that figure stood at 12%. Although the Census has not included Hispanic as a racial category, about 47% of Virginia Latinos counted themselves as something other than white or black in the 2010 Census. 2012 exit polls in Virginia tell the story of these shifts: roughly two-thirds of Asian Americans and Hispanics voted for Obama. While black voters obviously played a key role in Obama’s success in the Old Dominion, Virginians who did not consider themselves white or black were 10% of the state’s turnout in 2012. Historically, the key to unlocking victory in Virginia statewide elections has been winning the “Urban Crescent,” a curved corridor made up of northern Virginia, greater Richmond, and Hampton Roads. These areas have long been the most heavily populated in the state. But because of the demographic and population movement detailed above, the suburbs and exurbs in these places are no longer reliably Republican. If anything, some parts are becoming decidedly Democratic. Take for instance Fairfax County, the most populous locality in the state. In 2000, George W. Bush won 49% there, a plurality of the county’s vote. Four years later, John Kerry won 53%. In Obama’s maiden 2008 effort, he won just a bit over 60%, and a little less than 60% in his reelection. With 529,287 total votes in 2012, Fairfax County made up 14% of the state’s vote, easily the most in Virginia (Virginia Beach, the state’s largest city, was a distant second at 196,641, or 5%).

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! The stark difference in how the Urban Crescent voted between 2000 and 2012 reveals how Virginia has become a purple state and is illustrated in the chart below. Figure 1. Presidential Election Results in Virginia. Region

2000 State votes (%)

Gore (%)

Bush (%)

32.6

47.1

49.2

Richmond Hampton Roads Urban Crescent Rest of the state

16.3

42.9

19.9

Virginia

Northern VA

2012 State votes (%)

Obama (%)

Romney (%)

34.3

57.0

41.5

54.5

17.1

51.7

46.9

47.7

50.0

19.9

55.2

43.3

68.8

46.3

50.7

71.3

55.3

43.3

31.2

40.4

56.4

28.8

41.0

57.1

100

44.4

52.5

100.0

51.2

47.3

Notes: Regions based on Census MSAs at the time of 2012 election: the WashingtonArlington-Alexandria MSA, Richmond MSA, and Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA. Rounding may make numbers not appear to add up to 100% in “% of state votes” columns.

Not only did the Democratic performance in these areas improve markedly, the percentage of votes the areas contributed to the state’s total also increased. Overall, there was a 2.5 percentage point increase in the Urban Crescent’s share of the vote compared to the rest of the state. Meanwhile, Obama performed nine points better than Gore did in these areas. Considering the urban corridor made up 71.3% of the vote in 2012, a nine-point increase in Democratic performance there easily explains Obama’s win.

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! In other parts of the Commonwealth the story has been markedly different. Although Gore and Obama lost by similar margins outside the Urban Crescent, there’s little question that Republicans have been making gains in rural Virginia. Whereas exit polls found that Bush won rural Virginia 54%-42% in 2000, Romney won it 61%-37% in 2012. Obama improved upon Gore’s numbers in outlying cities such as Roanoke and Charlottesville, but Democratic votes dried up in less populated areas. This decline is best illustrated by voting in southwest Virginia: In 2000, Gore won 42% of the vote in the region, but in 2012 Obama garnered only 36%. Some “coal counties” had the starkest shifts: Gore won majorities in Buchanan, Dickenson, and Russell counties in 2000, while Obama lost each to Romney by at least 26 percentage points in 2012. This increasing urban-versus-rural divide is but one sign of the growing polarization of Virginia politics. At the national level, increased polarization has been trending for some time. According to one respected measure, the previous Congress was the most polarized in the history of the United States. While the current Congress is shaping up to be even more polarized as the last, the political divide at the federal level has trickled down to state and local levels. In Virginia, this has meant that socially moderate suburban voters have been increasingly willing to align themselves with the more socially liberal Democrats, while socially conservative rural voters have shifted sharply into the more socially conservative Republican camp. Many observers have commented on the increasing “Washingtonization” of Virginia’s politics, illustrated by highprofile General Assembly clashes over issues such as contraception and abortion. For many Virginia voters, the most glaring evidence of polarization in the Old Dominion are the identities of the two candidates fighting it out to be the state’s next governor. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) has strongly conservative social views and has gained media attention for his efforts to

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! combat the Affordable Care Act. Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe (D) is an expert fundraiser with no experience in Virginia government. Simply put, the two party nominees are facing the only kind of candidate that either could beat, turning this contest into a sort of race to the bottom. The resulting campaign has been extremely negative. To a certain extent, this is not surprising. Negative campaigning is currently a fact of life â&#x20AC;&#x201C; studies have shown itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the most effective form of political advertising. But because of increased polarization across the Commonwealth, the campaigns appear increasingly less interested in influencing the small percentage of true independent voters (roughly 10% of voters nationally) to back a candidate and more about getting partisans to the polls. And what better way to cue potential supporters to turn out than to run television ads emphasizing all the reasons why they should dislike the other guy? While the 2013 campaign may prove particularly ugly, there is little reason to think that Virginia wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t see more of this in the future. Ideologically, the state parties are moving apart and finding less and less to agree on. Demographic and generational differences across the Commonwealth dictate that one party is increasingly white and older, while the other is more diverse and younger. One is primarily rural, while the other is concentrated in the Urban Crescent. Mimicking the situation at the national level, the only way to make large, substantive shifts in policy may be to win control of the executive and both legislative chambers. In Virginia, winning all three at the same time on a consistent basis is a difficult proposition, particularly for Democrats. The GOP has an iron grip on the House of Delegates that Democrats will not be close to threatening any time soon, making Republicans more likely

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! to control all three cogs in the law-making apparatus in the future, just as they did in 2009. One hopes that some sort of shift occurs to stem the tide of polarization and ease the process of consensus-building. Time will tell. But Virginia is changing, and how the parties and voters adjust to these developments will shape where politics goes from here. For now, Virginia is a purple state, with demographic and political circumstances ripe for competitive contests across the Commonwealth. Geoffrey Skelley is an alumnus of the University of Virginia and an editor at Larry Sabatoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Crystal Ball.

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! Governorship of the Commonwealth Raymond Scheppach The former executive director of the National Governor’s Association discusses which gubernatorial powers should be at the forefront of voter’s minds. The term governor, in Roman times, referred to individuals appointed by the emperor to administer far away provinces. Their core responsibilities were to collect taxes, manage public spending, and act as a judge, but their actual powers were virtually unlimited. Similarly, early governors of the Commonwealth of Virginia, as well as those in the other colonies, were appointed by the British Monarchs. Often, the actual governor remained in England while the deputy or lieutenant governor presided over the colony. During this early period, it is not surprising that the term “governor” did not engender great respect. In fact, it generated open hostility during the push for independence. Even after the war, Virginians remained wary of concentrating too much administrative power with the governor and shifted powers to the General Assembly. Before the 1830 state constitution changed the term length to three years, the General Assembly appointed governors for one-year terms, with a limit of three consecutive terms. Thomas Jefferson served for three years; Patrick Henry and James Monroe were each re-appointed for an additional 3 one-year terms after being out of office for the requisite four years. Legislative appointment of governors continued in the Commonwealth until 1851, when the governor was first elected by popular vote and the term extended to its current length of four years.

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! Between that early period and present day, power slowly shifted back to governors as states recognized the need for a strong executive. The contemporary power of governors across the fifty states differs substantially based on the length of terms, the number of statewide elected offices, the power to appoint, emergency powers, the power to veto and amend legislation, and appropriations. Academics generally rank Virginia as one of the weaker governorships in terms of these constitutional powers.1 Virginiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s low ranking is largely due to the fact that the commonwealth stands alone among the fifty states in restricting the governor from succeeding himself for an additional four year term. Still, the governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia wields huge powers both in absolute terms, as well as in relative terms when compared to the General Assembly, the U.S. President and governors around the world who are generally appointed by their central governments. The U.S President, for example, has very limited budget powers relative to the Governor of Virginia, who can spend certain fee revenues as well as make spending reductions up to 15 percent without approval from the General Assembly. The Governor also has the ability to line item veto appropriations bills, giving him extraordinary budgetary discretion. The last three governors who became Presidentsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;Reagan, Clinton and Bush--all longed for the budget powers they exercised as governors. Authorities and Responsibilities The governor of the Commonwealth has extensive authority and responsibilities, including setting the agenda; policy formulation; and acting as chief of the political party, crisis manager, chief judge via clemency and pardons, military chief

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1

Gubernatorial Power, The Institutional Power Ratings for the 50 Governors of the United States, 2007 update, an on line index created by Thad Beyle of the University of North Carolina.

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! of the National Guard, chief of state, and manager of the bureaucracy. While the powers and responsibilities are broad, the governor enjoys special prerogatives in four crucial areas: 1. Proposing spending and taxes; 2. Appointing judges, boards and commissions; 3. Creating and enforcing regulations; and 4. Serving as crisis manager and chief of the National Guard. 1. Propose Spending and Taxes The governor of Virginia has a huge role here, as he both prepares the budget and submits it to the legislature. In budgetary matters, the legislature is relatively weak compared to the governor due to three other realities: it is part time, has limited staff, and the governor has line-item veto authority. This arrangement makes legislative overrides of a gubernatorial veto rare, and generally allows the governor to determine the budget for the Commonwealth. Virginia spent about $43.4 billion in state and federal funds in 2012.2 Much of this was spent on pubic investments, such as the 15.8 percent for elementary and secondary education, the 15.3 percent for higher education and the 10.2 percent for transportation.3 The immense portion of the Commonwealthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s annual budget that goes into public investment is critical to the long run economic growth of the Commonwealth. Given the Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s extraordinary power to determine appropriations, his decisions in this realm are of great consequence. In particular, the Commonwealth administers and provides the benefits for all the federal and state safety net programs. Here, the governor has significant power to structure and, for some, determine the benefits of these programs through regulation and executive order. These programs include SNAP, previously

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 National Association of State Budget Officers, State Expenditure Report (Fiscal 2010-2012 data) Washington D.C. 3 Ibid.

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! known as the food stamp program, and TANF, previously known as welfare and Medicaid, which provides health care to low income individuals. The Commonwealth spends 16.9 percent of its budget on Medicaid alone, which is actually lower than the average of 23.7 percent across states.4 In addition to these programs, the state operates its own unemployment insurance program. This program functions in tandem with a federal program, but it is the state that administers the entire federal-state system. The governor also plays a significant role on the revenue side of the budget, as he not only places tax initiatives on the agenda but also plays a key role in enacting changes. A perfect example of the governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s role in determining revenues was the tax changes for transportation funding recently initiated by Governor McDonnell, modified by the legislature, and eventually enacted into law. 2. Appoint Judges, Boards and Commissions The appointment power of the governor is absolutely critical. It not only includes the state supreme court, but virtually hundreds of boards and commissions which set standards and enforce compliance in areas as diverse as physicians, highway transportation, insurance and banking. The governor appoints the members of the University boards across the Commonwealth, including the Board of Visitors at the University of Virginia. He also appoints agency directors, who exercise large discretion in running statewide programs. 3. Create and enforce regulations The governor creates and enforces a broad range of regulations to protect the health, safety and general welfare of the citizens. In addition, the state executive agencies enforce federal

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4

Ibid.!

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! regulations in numerous areas, such as environmental protection. Clean air and clean water are two primary area of where federal law is enforced by states. In many cases, the federal government may set a minimum standard while states may set higher standards. 4. Serve as Crisis Manager and Chief of the National Guard The governor serves as the Commonwealth’s chief crisis manager. The governor needs to be an effective leader during times of crisis, be it a natural disaster or a terrorist attack. During these times, there is a premium on thoughtful and decisive action. He has broad emergency powers and is designated the commander-in-chief of Virginia’s National Guard. Under certain circumstances, such as a declared emergency, the governor may activate the National Guard in order to protect the health and safety of Virginia’s citizens. The guard, however, has historically been used judiciously. Notably, under the governorship of Linwood Holton, Virginia was the only Southern state that never activated the guard during the period of forced integration in the early 1970s. The Governor’s Broader Leadership Role As citizens in Virginia go to the polls in November, they need to reflect on the vast authorities and responsibilities of the governorship, and the specific areas in which he exercises the most power. They need to gain an understanding of how each candidate would exercise these powers. But they also need to consider the ability of each candidate to act in a broader leadership role. The elected governor must be a leader in terms of setting the agenda for the state in the next few legislative sessions. In the immediate future, the Commonwealth faces a number of

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! challenges from slowing economic growth, to deciding whether or not to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to funding higher education. Governors are only successful if they narrow their agenda, choose the appropriate one or two issues, and effectively use the bully pulpit to sell the policies to the citizens of Virginia. They then need to be able to reach across the aisle and negotiate with legislative leaders to enact a final agreement. The powers and responsibilities of the governor of the Commonwealth are vast, and they affect us all daily. Citizens must keep these in mind as they go to the polls on November 5 and elect the candidate who can best lead the state for the next four years. Raymond Scheppach is a Professor of Practice at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy and a Visiting Fellow for Economic Policy at the Miller Center for Public Affairs. From January 1983 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; January 2011, Ray Scheppach was the executive director of the National Governors Association (NGA).

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! Letter from the College Republicans and University Democrats of the University of Virginia Elizabeth Minneman, President of UVA College Republicans Madeline DuCharme, President of UVA University Democrats Following high levels of involvement among UVA students in the 2012 presidential elections, both of our organizations, the College Republicans and the University Democrats, were concerned that students would not have enthusiasm for the statewide elections this year. Starting in the spring 2013 semester, however, students in both organizations began volunteering for the gubernatorial candidates Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe. It is apparent that young people understand the impact this election will have on their daily lives on a number of issues ranging from job creation to womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s healthcare. Although we disagree on their strategies, both candidates have put forth good faith proposals for creating jobs and growing the economy. They have both stressed these issues to students, who they know will be searching for jobs in the next few years. While at UVA, Terry McAuliffe also focused on education reform and womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s healthcare rights. Education reform affects students not only because we attend a public university, but also because many of us grew up taking the Virginia Standards of Learning Tests that McAuliffe has vowed to end. Similarly, the candidates have put forward competing proposals for improving access to higher education. Along with increasing employment opportunities for recent graduates, Ken Cuccinelli has stressed the need to make higher education more accessible through increased grants and tuition lock-ins. This is highly relevant to UVA students struggling

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! with recent cuts to financial aid. Cuccinelli has also emphasized his plans to promote womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s safety by combatting sexual assault and human trafficking. These policies resonate especially well with UVA students who know of Cuccinelliâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s involvement as an undergraduate student in establishing UVAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sexual assault resource board. A great challenge on a college campus like UVA is getting students registered to vote. Many students change residences every school year, and out of state students may not realize that there is a gubernatorial election this year that will have a high impact on their public education in Virginia. Both organizations have been working to reach out to these students and encourage them to register vote or to change their polling location. On Election Day, the campaigns will offer UVA students a ride to the polls and will work hard to remind them of the importance of voting. Compounding this challenge is the negativity seen throughout both campaigns. Students are discouraged by attack ads seen on television and throughout social media. Outside of our organizations, it has been difficult to reach out to less politically active students who may be turned off by the negativity they encounter. Both College Republicans and University Democrats have also been helping with down ticket races such as the Charlottesville City Council and Albemarle Board of Supervisor campaigns. We see the importance of local government and the ability of UVA students to strongly affect the results of these races. However, with many students turned off by the negativity at the top of the ticket, we are concerned that this will affect turnout for local elections. Despite the negativity in the statewide campaigns, student involvement in this election has been encouraging. We hope that students will see the high impact of their votes; local and state government create policies that more directly affect the daily lives of UVA students, from funding our university to

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! expanding healthcare. Moving forward, we hope students will continue to understand the importance of civic engagement and that they take the time to actively engage the issues so that they can be informed voters on November 5th. Liz Minneman is an MPP student at the University of Virginia and President of the universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s College Republicans. Madeline DuCharme is a student at the University of Virginia and the President of the universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s University Democrats.

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! Gubernatorial Candidate: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli Issues Interview

Infrastructure Development VPR: In May 2013, the Virginia Legislature passed the Road to the Future Bill, which eliminated the 17.5 cents per-gallon excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel. In its place, the legislation imposed a 3.5% sales tax on gasoline, a 6% sales tax on diesel fuel, and increased the state and local sales tax from 5% to 5.3%. How will this change in funding structure affect your administrationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s goals for transportation infrastructure development? Cuccinelli: The passage of HB 2313 has provided a dedicated source of revenue, but not a dedicated lock box for transportation spending. The legislation did not streamline the analysis of transportation problems, nor the process (engineering, design, construction, and maintenance) to develop effective solutions to ensure that we have transparency, accountability, and cost effective financing of transportation projects. Unfortunately, the transportation system is grossly politicized, from the local to the federal level, with increased frustration on the part of the taxpayers who spend too many hours of their days stuck in traffic. For example, the original contract for Phase 2 of the Silver Line included a project labor agreement with a union sweetheart deal. Virginia forced Phase 2 of the Silver Line to be rebid without the type of guaranteed union deal, my opponent, Terry McAuliffe and his union donors support. As a result, the winning bid saved taxpayers $300!million.

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! Virginia transportation policy needs to shift the paradigm away from an emphasis on spending for the sake of spending, instead focusing on performance management with measurable results. The goals should be centered on mobility of people and commerce, congestion relief, safety, infrastructure integrity, and local connectivity. Performance targets should be the primary investment drivers, not political earmarks. It is time to take a new approach to transportation, which by the numbers, is focused on principles of efficiency and careful stewardship of our taxpayers’ dollars. It is important to identify the problems, rank them by priority, anticipate the return on investment, review and evaluate the ongoing projects to ensure they are on track and providing the benefit anticipated VPR: The American Society of Civil Engineers recently awarded the Commonwealth an overall D+ grade on its annual infrastructure report card. What are your priorities for infrastructure improvement, given the limited budget and geographic differences in infrastructure needs across the Commonwealth? Cuccinelli: A performance based transportation program will allow VDOT to more effectively choose transportation projects in a way that will maximize the transportation benefits it provides to motorists and truckers for any level of state and federal surface transportation spending. The primary goal of a performance based system should be congestion mitigation with the framework of safety and infrastructure preservation. VDOT’s existing “performance” systems stretch back over the past three administrations and have a variety of reporting mechanisms and guidelines with

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! disparate goals that are not meaningful to policy, resource allocation, and congestion mitigation. The current system that developed over time is a de facto system of project selection which can spend significant sums of scarce resources on costly and underutilized modes and large projects that do little to improve mobility. The essence of this type of system is that the government obligates itself to provide a variety of modal choices-cars, bicycles, trolley cars, commuter rail, etc.--regardless of cost, efficiency, or impact on congestion, air quality, safety or infrastructure preservation. The net effect of these measures has been to increase traffic congestion, which retards economic growth, job creation, and regional competitiveness. My goal to improve state infrastructure includes all actions and a schedule to raise condition of the states deteriorated bridges, roads and transit systems to safe acceptable levels. It requires defined quantitative performance standards of quality and safety.

Education VPR: How do you plan to overhaul the Commonwealthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Standards of Learning (SOL) exams? Do you have any specific goals in mind regarding student evaluation, and are there any existing state tests that you are looking to as a model for Virginia's new tests? Cuccinelli: Establish the APPLES (Academics, Parents, Principals, Leaders, Educators And Students) Commission Under The Virginia Board Of Education To Review And Revise The Standards Of Learning And Report To The General Assembly By November 1, 2014. This commission will be composed of parents, teachers, business leaders, university leaders, state legislators, and community stakeholders who will review, under the Virginia

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! Board of Education, the current SOL system and find ways to strengthen the K-12 curriculum and testing procedures to ensure that graduates of Virginia public schools are prepared when they enter the workforce or go on to college and that schools are held accountable for this standard. a.

Focus SOLs on competency and cognitive based education—based on student knowledge and problem solving ability—rather than rote memorization and time spent in the classroom. b. Either develop adaptive computer tests or build a large bank of test questions to increase flexibility in the testing calendar as well as the capacity of administering tests. c. Eliminate the need for students to wait for a long period of time to re-test. d. Engage parents with a clear reporting system on each child’s performance, expectations, and interim progress beyond the current report card system. e. Enhance transparency at the school level with a matrix of the percentage of children who pass/fail or are retained in elementary schools, as well as achievement in math and reading levels. VPR: State funding for Virginia’s public universities has steadily decreased over the past decade, with significant ramifications for affordability and financial aid. For example, AccessUVA, the University of Virginia’s need-based aid program, was recently scaled back to remain solvent. As governor, would you seek to increase state funding for higher education? If not, how do you plan to keep budget cuts from hindering the goal of promoting higher education, particularly for low-income individuals or first-generation college attendees?

Virginia Policy Review

! Cuccinelli: Virginia was certainly not the only state that responded to the recession by cutting state support of higher education and shifting the cost burden to students and their parents. To reverse this trend, as the economy slowly improves, we need to focus on improving affordability for middle income families. While low-income students and families generally qualify for financial aid, middle income families often end up with insurmountable levels of debt or are forced to forego the college opportunity altogether. My plans to make higher education more affordable include: a.

Tuition Assistance Grants (TAG). Support the State Council of Higher Education’s recommendation to increase the TAG grant maximum amount to $3500 for undergraduates and $3700 for graduates at Virginia’s private colleges. The grant would be limited to four years to encourage students to graduate on time. b. Four Year Guaranteed Tuition: Freshmen entering college will be able to lock in a tuition rate for four years. c. Differential Funding for STEM majors. Those students who are in STEM majors at four year colleges would be encouraged with lower tuition in their 3rd and 4th years. d. $10K Degrees. I will challenge the legislature and every Virginia college and university—in two to three years—to offer at least one $10K degree in a STEM or STEMrelated field to provide an option for students and their families to attain the goal of receiving an undergraduate bachelor degree in Virginia. e. Increase work-study programs in Virginia’s higher education institutions with a $10 million financial aid package. If Virginia were to initiate a $10 million work study program for low and middle income students, approximately $1,750 in financial aid could be provided to 6,000 Virginia students. Not only will this initiative help thousands of Virginia students build their resumes and enhance their work experience, it would also reduce overhead costs for universities and colleges.

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! Economic Growth VPR: Entrepreneurship accounts for 65-75% of annual economic growth in the Commonwealth. As governor, what would you do to promote entrepreneurial activity and encourage the growth of small businesses? Cuccinelli: In anticipation of the effects of federal budget cuts and the need to jump start small business growth within Virginia to offset the spending cuts, it is critical that pro-growth tax reform be implemented to increase jobs and provide tax relief for Virginia’s families. With a reduced corporate tax rate of 4.0%, Virginia would have the lowest maximum corporate tax rate among all 43 states that have a corporate income tax. By reducing the personal income tax rate from 5.75 percent to 5 percent and indexing it to inflation we would lower taxes for the average family between $400 to $700 per year. We would have to cap spending at the rate of inflation plus population and eliminate approximately 15 percent of tax exemptions to cover the cost of the tax cuts. This plan would create over 58,000 jobs, increase business investments by $650 million, and generate real disposable income by $3.6 billion. Whereas, my opponent’s plan, would raise taxes for the average Virginian family by $1700 per year. VPR: As governor, what specific measures would you propose in order to support a robust energy sector? Are there other sectors of the Virginia economy that we should, as a Commonwealth, be concentrating our investments in? Cuccinelli: My energy plan employs an all-of-the-above energy strategy to enable job creators to responsibly capitalize on the Commonwealth’s vast energy sources in order to create jobs and keep energy prices manageable for consumers.

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! While newer sources of energy— such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables—are core components of the plan, I believe coal and other more traditional resources are essential to a sound energy policy for Virginia businesses and consumers. It is important to prevent excessive energy taxes that could destroy jobs, cost consumers, and restrict development of the Commonwealth’s natural resources and be able to responsibly explore our abundant offshore energy resources, and streamline related regulations so quality jobs can be created in the immediate term. To keep energy costs affordable, we need to reform or eliminate failed clean energy programs, such as the Renewable Portfolio Standard bonuses, in order to harness private-sector innovation and prevent the government from picking winners and losers and ensure consumers’ interests regarding price and reliability are being fully served regardless of the type of electric utility (investor-owned, municipal or cooperative) that currently serves them. My opponent supports a 25 percent Renewable Portfolio Standard mandate, which would significantly raise electricity costs and destroy jobs. Kansas imposed a 20 percent RPS in 2009 and studies have indicated that it would cost over 12,000 jobs and raise electricity prices by 45 percent by the year 2020. Finally, we should be vigilant to protect the environment, while balancing this protection with the critical need to increase energy production, improve and modernize energy technology, and bolster job creation. I firmly believe Virginia can pursue a pro-growth, all-of-the-above energy policy while maintaining responsible and vigilant stewardship of our environment.

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! Gubernatorial Candidate: Terry McAuliffe Issues Interview

Infrastructure Development VPR: In May 2013, the Virginia Legislature passed the Road to the Future Bill, which eliminated the 17.5 cents per-gallon excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel. In its place, the legislation imposed a 3.5% sales tax on gasoline, a 6% sales tax on diesel fuel, and increased the state and local sales tax from 5% to 5.3%. How will this change in funding structure affect your administration’s goals for transportation infrastructure development? McAuliffe: I was a strong supporter of the bipartisan transportation compromise passed during the last legislative session. I worked to encourage members of my party to support the Governor, Lt. Governor and Speaker as the bill made its way though the General Assembly. As a result of that legislation, the next Governor will be able to begin to make headway on the Commonwealth’s pressing transportation needs. My opponent tried to stop the transportation compromise at every step and he has often stood in the way of mainstream progress on transportation. Now that the Commonwealth has taken this critical step toward properly funding our transportation infrastructure we must ensure that these new revenues are spent wisely. We must first, fix our aging existing infrastructure. When it comes to building new projects, I was encouraged to see Speaker Howell’s proposal regarding project selection and we appear to be largely in agreement. New transportation projects should be evaluated according to whether they move the Commonwealth

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! forward by 1) creating economic development; 2) alleviating congestion; or 3) improve safety. VPR: The American Society of Civil Engineers recently awarded the Commonwealth an overall D+ grade on its annual infrastructure report card. What are your priorities for infrastructure improvement, given the limited budget and geographic differences in infrastructure needs across the Commonwealth? McAuliffe: Across the nation we have allowed our infrastructure to become entirely too degraded. Right here, of Virginia's 20,991 bridges, according to VDOT, 1,576 are listed as structurally deficient and 3,314 are listed as functionally obsolete. I describe my transportation plans in my transportation platform as starting from a “Fix It First” mentality. Where we can repair or upgrade existing infrastructure, that should be our first approach to solving transportation problems.

Education VPR: How do you plan to overhaul the Commonwealth’s Standards of Learning (SOL) exams? Do you have any specific goals in mind regarding student evaluation, and are there any existing state tests that you are looking to as a model for Virginia's new tests? McAuliffe: We must have a strong system of student achievement and teacher evaluation. Unfortunately our current system isn’t working for parents, students, or teachers. The current Standards of Learning tests have created an environment with an over-emphasis on drilling students to take one-time, multiple-choice tests. There is no question that teachers must be held accountable through fair, multidimensional means, and that we need to ensure that students

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! are learning what we want them to know, but we can do a better job. I have proposed a blue ribbon commission to study the content being tested and the format of tests. Teachers and students both report that the facts focused on in SOL tests don’t always line up with the most important concepts from each subject and that they’re often poorly presented. Tests are only as good as the questions they ask. Additionally, we must focus on progress through pre-testing. If a 5th grade teacher gets a child reading at a 1st grade level and, by the end of the year, has that child reading at a 4th grade level, the current system calls that teacher a failure. We must move toward progress-based data instead of simplistic grade level requirements. Finally, moving to essay or short answer-based testing where possible will improve our tests as measurements of student progress. Multiple-choice tests drive teachers to drill individual facts rather than broad understanding. It’s good if a child knows when we landed on the moon, but it’s much better if the child knows about the space race, NASA, and the Apollo program. Essay and short answer tests let our kids demonstrate knowledge and our teachers teach. VPR: State funding for Virginia’s public universities has steadily decreased over the past decade, with significant ramifications for affordability and financial aid. For example, AccessUVA, the University of Virginia’s need-based aid program, was recently scaled back to remain solvent. As governor, would you seek to increase state funding for higher education? If not, how do you plan to keep budget cuts from hindering the goal of promoting higher education,

Virginia Policy Review

! particularly for low-income individuals or first-generation college attendees? McAuliffe: We absolutely must maintain our commitment to a high-quality system of public higher education that is available to all Virginians. First and foremost, I believe that our system of community colleges is one of the Commonwealthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most significant and sadly underfunded assets. State support for these 23 institutions has declined by around 40% over the past few years and this critical pathway toward an affordable 4-year degree or needed career training is drifting out of reach for many Virginians. We must increase state support for these institutions and remove burdensome or onerous procurement and work order rules that waste time and money. These new resources should build on the entrepreneurial efforts of the community college system and be largely in the form of challenge grants to help bring new private sector dollars into these institutions and get the most bang for the taxpayersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; dollar. In our four-year schools we need to stabilize state support and direct additional resources into our financial aid programs. We can accomplish that in two ways: first, we should allocate a larger percentage of generalized state support of these institutions toward financial aid, and second we should additionally appropriate new revenues for financial aid. These new revenues can be gained through economic growth, reform of inefficient or outdated loopholes and tax credits, and through accepting the federal Medicaid expansion, which promises to create around 33,000 new jobs, provide coverage for around 400,000 Virginians, and generate new net General Fund revenues. I will also oppose efforts like those my opponent launched that would have the effect of intimidating independent scientists

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! and research. State government should trust scientists to pursue their research without political interference.

Economic Growth VPR: Entrepreneurship accounts for 65-75% of annual economic growth in the Commonwealth. As governor, what would you do to promote entrepreneurial activity and encourage the growth of small businesses? McAuliffe: I am a tremendous supporter of entrepreneurship and small businesses. I started my first business when I was 14 because I knew I’d have to help pay for college. One of the greatest assets Virginia has for small business is a thriving research and development community, particularly at our universities. In order to make Virginia a leader in the biotechnology and biomedical industries, we need to leverage our academic research and scientific assets. First, I’ve proposed increasing the current cap on the angel investor tax credits. These critically important credits encourage private capital to enter the early stages of businesses. By making more capital available, we can help encourage the creation of more startups. I have also proposed creating an innovative startup lending program specifically for commercialization of biotech research, to be housed under the existing Commonwealth Research Commercialization Fund. Virginia is already a very low tax state, which is one of the reasons we’re known as a good place to do business. As we work to continue and build upon the foundation that has made tour state such a great place to do business, we can’t afford to have a system of complicated, anti-growth taxes for small businesses, which is why I’ve proposed a mechanism for reform

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! of local business taxes that are hindering our growth like the BPOL, M&T, and Merchant’s Capital taxes. I will convene a bipartisan Task Force with representatives from across the Commonwealth to produce revenue-neutral proposals that give localities options to significantly reduce some of these regressive business taxes. These new options will provide new revenues at the local level to offset lost business tax revenues and will be available entirely at the discretion of local governments. VPR: As governor, what specific measures would you propose in order to support a robust energy sector? Are there other sectors of the Virginia economy that we should, as a Commonwealth, be concentrating our investments in? McAuliffe: Virginia’s ability to grow its economy depends on reliable and affordable energy. We have historically been able to ensure this cheap and reliable supply, but the market is changing. We need to act decisively to stay competitive, create jobs, and lower costs for consumers. The Commonwealth must continue to maintain a diverse energy mix, to keep electricity costs affordable and grow our economy. A true “all of the above” strategy that includes all viable sources of power will help keep energy prices stable and Virginia businesses humming. We should work to ensure a diverse portfolio by pushing for development of newly leased parcels of ocean for offshore wind development, preserving the option of expanded nuclear capacity, support for our existing coal infrastructure, and preserving our natural gas generation capacity. A mixed energy supply will serve as a hedge against price volatility. As we look forward we must embrace a transition toward a growing proportion of energy generation from renewable sources. Renewable energy must be a central feature of a truly

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! diverse energy mix. However, Virginia is falling behind other states in developing these renewable technologies. Many of the high tech companies we need to attract are demanding clean energy. Investment in cutting edge techniques of energy generation could create 170,000 jobs over the next 20 years and stabilize energy costs. We can accomplish that transition through a use of a renewable portfolio standard, improving our net metering rules, and making it easier and more affordable to install residential and commercial renewable generation capacity. Finally, one of the easiest ways to reduce energy costs is to reduce energy use. Virginia is currently ranked below average in energy efficiency. By setting clear targets for utilities and strategically incentivizing consumers, we can improve energy efficiency in the stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s use of power and in the use of power by our citizens. Beyond the energy sector, I plan to work tirelessly to support Virginia industries like agriculture, tourism, healthcare and forestry that are already creating billions in economic activity and employing hundreds of thousands of Virginians. We must also diversify into new industries building on our strengths, like cyber security, nanotechnology and bio-life sciences, and advanced manufacturing.

Virginia Policy Review

! Candidate Cuccinelli’s Proposed Transportation and Infrastructure Policies Student, MPP 2014 Cuccinelli’s Silver Line Stance The Dulles Metrorail is a 23-mile extension of the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s (WMATA) Orange Line, which will connect the Dulles Airport to the East Falls Church station in Fairfax County, Virginia. This analysis focuses on one aspect of Ken Cuccinelli’s transportation platform- his opposition constructing the second phase of the Silver Line.1 Cuccinelli, a native of Fairfax County, acknowledges that traffic congestion could lead to slower delivery of goods and services across the Commonwealth. He called the Silver Line project “an economic boondoggle,” citing that “the cost-benefit is just not there.” 2 Rather than funding capital projects like the expansion of the Silver Line, Cuccinelli has advocated giving Virginia’s localities greater authority and funding on municipal roads. 3 4 Cuccinelli has been particularly critical of the unionization surrounding the road and rail construction

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Alpert, David. "Cuccinelli Opposes Silver Line, McAuliffe Uses Odd Map." The Washington Post., last modified 6/20/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opinions-arelocal/post/cuccinelli-opposes-silver-line-mcauliffe-uses-oddmap/2013/06/20/04ced0da-d9dc-11e2-9df4-895344c13c30_blog.html. 2 Ibid 3 Rothrock, Millie. "Cuccinelli, McAuliffe Stump in Wytheville." TriCities.com., last modified 9/4/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.tricities.com/swvatoday/news/wytheville/article_8f0b54e8fed6-11e2-892d-001a4bcf6878.html. 4 Kunkle, Fredrick. "McAuliffe, at Silver Line Station, Touts Support of Project, Says Cuccinelli Fought it." The Washington Post., last modified 6/18/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013,http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/vapolitics/mcauliffe-at-silver-line-station-touts-support-of-project-says-cuccinellifought-it/2013/06/18/9c8315ba-d858-11e2-a016-92547bf094cc_story.html.

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! workers hired to complete the second phase of the Silver Line; he supports rebidding union labor contracts and right-to-work laws.5 The Attorney General argued that decentralizing budget and project authority to the municipalities could lead to better transportation outcomes — including mitigated traffic congestion—particularly in the Commonwealth’s most populated regions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. The gubernatorial candidate also spoke out against the state’s 2013 bipartisan transportation bill, HB2313, claiming the “rising gas prices, increased regulatory burdens and taxes from the federal government...” coupled with the bill’s tax increases were too high for individuals and businesses within the Commonwealth.6 Silver Line Project Details The Silver Line construction timeline is two-fold. The first phase, scheduled to be completed in 2014, will connect three stops in Tysons Corner and a stop at Wiehle Avenue in Reston to the East Falls Church metro stop on the Orange Line. The second phase, scheduled for completion in 2018, will add stops from Reston, Herndon, Dulles, and Ashburn, Virginia. Both phases of the metro expansion are expensive; the first phase of the project cost $2.8 billion dollars and the second phase’s costs are estimated to be $3 billion. 7 Financing for the

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5 “Says Virginia Saved $300 Million by Rebidding a Metrorail Construction Project to Exclude Guaranteed Union Contracts." PolitiFact., last modified 7/29/2013, accessed 10/19/2013, 2013,http://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2013/aug/12/kencuccinelli/cuccinelli-embellishes-savings-stopping-union-cont/. 6 Robillard, Kevin. "Ken Cuccinelli Opposes Virginia Transportation Bill." POLITICO.com., last modified 2/21/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/ken-cuccinelli-opposestransportation-bill-87908.html. 7 "What is Dulles Metrorail?" Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – DC to Dulles Metrorail., last modified 3/6/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/12MAR6_ProjectOverview_FINAL.PDF

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! extension is also complex. Fairfax and Loudoun counties, the WMATA, Dulles Toll Road commuters, and the federal government are slated to finance the second phase of the project.8 The Dulles Metrorail has encountered recent problems, however. As of August 2013, Fairfax County did not have the resources to independently finance the second phase of the extension. After partnering with the federal government and the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, Fairfax County is still $48 million short for the second phase of the metro.9 Analysis This section will analyze Cuccinelli’s statement that the “costbenefit [of the Silver Line] is just not there.” Cuccinelli claims that the project is too expensive, however the costs must be measured against the potential benefits to the Dulles corridor, the Commonwealth of Virginia, and the Washington DC metro area. This analysis suggests that the benefits of the Silver Line metro likely outweigh the future discounted costs after five years. Silver Line Expected Costs The Silver Line expansion has six funding sources: the federal government, the Commonwealth of Virginia, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) aviation funds, and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Dulles Toll Road revenues. The federal government contributed $900,000 to Phase 1 of the

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Hedgpeth, Dana and Aratani, Lori. "Metro Stop on Silver Line Short of Funds." The Washington Post., last modified 8/27/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-27/local/41494601_1_secondphase-fairfax-county-rail-line. 9 Ibid.

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! Dulles Corridor project (16.4% of the project total), but it has not contributed any appropriations for Phase 2. Figure 1. Silver Line Cost Distribution.

Silver'Line'Cost'Distribution' *dollar'4igures'are'represented'in'1000’s'

$3,000,000! $2,500,000! $2,000,000! $1,500,000! $1,000,000! $500,000! $0! Phase!1! Phase!2! Total! The Commonwealth of Virginia contributed $251,700 to Phase 1 of the Project and has contributed $323,300 to Phase 2 of the project, which totals $575,000, 10.5% of the total costs. Fairfax County contributed $400,000 to Phase 1 and $484,322 to Phase 2, $884,322 (16.1%). Loudoun County contributed $263,649 (4.8%) and MWAA aviation funds covered $225,200 to Phase 2 of the project only. The MWAA Dulles Toll Road contributed $1,353,985 to Phase 1 of the project and the tolls have raised $1,290,529 for Phase 2 of the project, totaling $2,644,514 (48.1% of the project). However, the toll road costs are not fixed; the amount and percentage of the total cost can change depending on demand to use Dulles’ Toll Road.10 1

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10 Dulles Metrorail - Funding." Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – DC to Dulles Metrorail., last modified 10/13/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.dullesmetro.com/documents/13OCT_Funding%20Chart.pdf.

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! There are also costs associated with the traffic delays in both phases—which in 2011 averaged approximately 67 hours per commuter per year in Northern Virginia.112The construction of the Silver Line project, particularly at the East Falls Church stop where the Silver Line connects with the Orange Line, has caused traffic delays along Interstate-66. As a result of the Silver Line’s opening, riders taking the Blue Line trains will have 12 minute, rather than 10 minute, breaks between trains, which could cause bottlenecking at the Rosslyn metro station; the metro will combat this by adding cars to Blue Line trains.123 Operating the entire Silver Line will add $4.5 million to the metro’s operational costs each year due to the tight turning space at the Stadium-Armory Station.134Additionally, Phase 2 of the Silver Line expansion is currently $48 million short of the total costs that the MWAA needs to build it. Project officials in Fairfax County must secure the funds before July 1, 2014 -possibly through federal and private grants-- to complete the project on time.145 Silver Line Expected Benefits According to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, once the Silver Line becomes operational, 389,100 daily

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"Performance Measure." solutions.virginia.gov., last modified 10/13/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, https://solutions.virginia.gov/pbreports/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=vp_OneMe asure&MeasureCode=50160404.002.007. 12 Hedgpeth, Dana. "Metro Silver Line Winners and Losers." The Washington Post., last modified 4/10/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dr-gridlock/wp/2013/04/10/metrosilver-line-winners-and-losers/. 13 Aratani, Lori and Hedgpeth, Dana. "Operating Silver Line could Cost Metro Millions More than Expected." The Washington Post., last modified 11/29/2012, accessed 10/19, 2013,http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-1129/local/35584412_1_metro-train-operators-rail. 14 Hedgpeth, Dana and Aratani, Lori. "Metro Stop on Silver Line Short of Funds." The Washington Post., last modified 8/27/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-27/local/41494601_1_secondphase-fairfax-county-rail-line.

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! passengers will benefit.156 Furthermore, metro studies suggest that minority and low-income riders will not be disproportionately affected by slower trains and longer waiting times as a result of the Silver Line. A poll that surveyed 7,700 riders indicated that 80 to 87% of passengers who currently drive for their commute in Northern Virginia would switch to the Silver Line.167Located 26 miles outside of Washington DC, the Dulles Airport will only mature with a connecting rail system. The effects of Phase 2 will help improve traffic to the airport. The manager for the Dulles International Airport estimates that the Silver Line will double airplane ridership— from 25 million to 50 million—upon successful completion.178 As a result of the Silver Line extension to Wiehle Avenue, the WMATA estimates that carbon dioxide levels as a result of traffic emissions will decrease.189Additionally, Loudoun County has estimated that its gross county product will grow from $21.3 billion in 2010 to $80.7 billion in 2030.1910The county also estimates that, upon completion, Phase 2 of the project will attract over 40,000 new jobs to the county.2011

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Hedgpeth, Dana. "Metro Silver Line Winners and Losers." The Washington Post., last modified 4/10/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dr-gridlock/wp/2013/04/10/metrosilver-line-winners-and-losers/. 16 Ibid. 17 Smith, Dusty. "Loudoun Chamber Breakfast Focuses on Silver Line Benefits." Ashburn, VA Patch., last modified 5/13/2012, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://ashburn.patch.com/groups/politics-and-elections/p/chamber-eventfocused-on-metro-benefits. 18 "Appendix c: Summary of Effects." Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – DC to Dulles Metrorail., last modified 2/2006, accessed 10/19, 2013,http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/EA_Feb2006/DullesEA_AppendixC.pdf. 19 Fuller, S. S. "Silver Line Costs & Benefits." Loudoun Rail Now., accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.loudounrailnow.com/silver-line-costs-benefits/. 20 Ibid.

Virginia Policy Review

! Conclusions Despite the $3 billion estimated initial cost of the Phase 2 of the Silver Line metro rail, the economic benefits to Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, the Dulles Airport, and the Washington Metro region could potentially cover the costs within five years of Phase 2 completion, strengthening Northern Virginia for years to come. Other benefits, including fewer deaths from traffic accidents and greater environmental benefits from fewer cars traveling the Dulles corridor, supplement the economic benefits that the Silver Line will provide to the region. Ken Cuccinelli’s concerns that the project’s Phase 2 will be an economic boondoggle do not have widespread support in Northern Virginia; many organizations, including multiple Chambers of Commerce, adamantly support the completion of the project to connect the Dulles Airport to the heart of our nation’s capital.2112

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"Silver Line Metro Rail." Greater Reston Chamber of Commerce., accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.restonchamber.org/silver_line_metrorail.aspx and Munley, Erin. "Fairfax Chamber Joins Statement of Support for Virginia Senate Budget Plan that Provides $450 Million for Phase II Dulles Rail." Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce., last modified 4/3/2012, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.fairfaxchamber.org/index.php?src=news&refno=398&category =Chamber+Press+Release&prid=398.

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! Candidate McAuliffe’s Proposed Transportation and Infrastructure Policies Madison Busch, MPP 2014 Most people who have seen Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe’s stump speech probably know that he started a driveway paving business at 14 years old. Give him license to say that he learned his first lessons about transportation and infrastructure on the ground level. Mr. McAuliffe frames his approach to transportation and infrastructure in terms of his focus on economic activity and job creation. While he says he will work to provide more leadership, he has yet to outline exactly what changes he would make to transportation policy in the Commonwealth. Mr. McAuliffe has based much of his transportation and infrastructure platform on the costs that excessive traffic imposes on commuters. Quantifying the economic impact of poor transportation infrastructure makes sense given his focus on economic development and “putting jobs first”; he calculates over $2 billion in “wasted dollars” on commuting each year. This number focuses on Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Northern Virginia, but whether it is based on lost wages from excess commute time or some other measure is unclear. In order to alleviate this economic burden, McAuliffe says that he would “provide more leadership as Governor on transportation planning.” McAuliffe plans to clarify which projects should be prioritized so that state transportation dollars are allocated most effectively, as opposed to a “laundry

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! list approach.” 1 He says that he will prioritize those projects that improve the economic travel needs of residents and businesses in the Commonwealth. He has named some of those priorities, including expanding the Silver Line and widening Route 58. First, McAuliffe supports the Metro’s Silver Line expansion into Loudoun County, staking out a clear opposition to the Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli. Again, in keeping with his focus on jobs, McAuliffe has characterized the Silver Line expansion as necessary economic activity that will boost the regional economy. 2 Regarding roads projects, McAuliffe has said he would like to see Route 58 widened for the length of its route, which runs along the southern border of the Commonwealth. However, he has said very little else about specific roads projects, and has declined to say whether the state government should play some role in decreasing the steep tolls on the Dulles Greenway.34 McAuliffe has made a few other general statements about transportation and infrastructure investments, including ‘supporting’ the Virginia rail system, ‘supporting’ the Port of Virginia, and ‘supporting’ repairs for state roads and bridges.

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"The Problem." Terry McAuliffe of Governor., accessed 10/19, 2013, http://terrymcauliffe.com/on-the-issues/transportation/the-problem/. 2 Baratko, Trevor. "McAuliffe Talks Bipartisanship, Transportation at Forum in Loudoun." Leesburg and Loudoun County News, Sports, Jobs and Classifieds., last modified 8/8/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013,http://www.loudountimes.com/news/article/mcauliffe_pitches_bipartisansh ip_transportation_at_forum_in_loudoun543. 3 Kunkle, Fredrick. "McAuliffe, Cuccinelli Slug it Out." The Washington Post., last modified 8/30/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-30/local/41608714_1_terrymcauliffe-federal-government-greentech-automotive. 4 Baratko, Trevor. "McAuliffe Talks Bipartisanship, Transportation at Forum in Loudoun." Leesburg and Loudoun County News, Sports, Jobs and Classifieds., last modified 8/8/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013,http://www.loudountimes.com/news/article/mcauliffe_pitches_bipartisansh ip_transportation_at_forum_in_loudoun543.

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! While repairing roads and bridges is an important goal, it’s hard to see how prioritizing these projects will lead us away from a ‘laundry list approach’ to infrastructure, given the multitude of roads and bridges in need of service across the Commonwealth. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) states that Virginia has 1,250 structurally deficient bridges and that 47% of Virginia roads are in poor or mediocre condition. Expressing support for these broad categories of infrastructure projects doesn’t tell voters much about how he would prioritize specific projects besides the Silver Line and Route 58. McAuliffe has also stated that as Governor he would encourage regional planning for infrastructure.5 His support for regional planning was reflected in his support for the transportation bill passed by the General Assembly in May 2013, H.B. 2313. While H.B. 2313 gained attention for changing the gas tax from a flat fee to a percentage, one of the other important (and more frequently overlooked) changes was levying of additional taxes on the Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads areas. These taxes will be dedicated to fund specific transportation needs in those areas.6 As Governor, McAuliffe would promote this type of regional planning. It is unclear what regional planning and differing tax rates for residents in different parts of the Commonwealth will mean in the long run for transportation and infrastructure. First, it is not entirely clear what a region is to McAuliffe – H.B. 2313 imposed new taxes on planning districts 8 and 23, which

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"The Problem." Terry McAuliffe of Governor. Accessed 10/19, 2013, http://terrymcauliffe.com/on-the-issues/transportation/the-problem/. 6 "Governor McDonnell Ceremonially Signs Virginia's Historic Bi-Partisan Transportation Funding Bill." Office of the Governor Robert F. McDonnell., last modified 5/13/2013, accessed 10/19, 2013, http://www.governor.virginia.gov/news/viewRelease.cfm?id=1809.

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! represent just portions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, respectively. Second, increasing the role of regional planning could have some negative unintended effects on the transportation budget overall. Although new regional taxes will contribute to transportation projects in their dedicated areas, the sums are dwarfed by the total transportation budget. The Virginia Department of Transportation’s budget alone is over $4.7 billion in FY 2014, and these new taxes are estimated to raise about $568 million per year. 7 These taxes will help address but will not come close to fully covering the needed infrastructure improvements in the designated regions, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Regardless of how the Commonwealth is divided up, overall resources for infrastructure development will remain limited. While regional infrastructure planning has been shown to be a more economically effective process than state-wide centralized planning, there could be other negative effects from regional planning resulting in more differentiated tax rates between Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and the rest of the state.8 For instance, the increased tax rates in these areas may lead companies and residents to move just outside the tax border, contributing to sprawl and creating more traffic, problems the tax increase is meant to address. In addition, McAuliffe has not stated whether any of the Commonwealth’s regions has primacy in terms of budgetary dollars. The struggle over these dollars may be bloodier under a McAuliffe governorship that prioritizes regional planning than one in which tax differentials are limited and infrastructure planning is centralized. Any

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7 PolitiFact Virginia, Jamie Radtke Says Transportation Bill would Impose "Largest Tax Increase in Virginia History". PolitiFact., accessed 10/19, 2013,http://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2013/mar/15/jamieradtke/jamie-radtke-says-transportation-bill-would-impose/. 8 Stephan, Andreas. Regional infrastructure policy and its impact on productivity: A comparison of Germany and France. No. FS IV 01-02. Discussion papers//WZB, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Markt und Politische Ökonomie, 2001.

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! dollar allocated toward Northern Virginia is a dollar less allocated toward the Southside. Given the level of need Northern Virginia could quickly become a black hole for infrastructure dollars, posing a serious problem to other regions of the state. This could have negative effects for the rural areas of Virginia, which have important infrastructure needs that may not be as immediately obvious as those in Northern Virginia. Mr. McAuliffe’s goals for the Southside, the Southwest, and the Eastern Shore focus on job creation, and infrastructure is a critical part of that push. For example, many communities in these areas lack access to broadband internet. The Governor’s Rural Jobs Council identified this as posing a serious deterrent to businesses considering moving to the region in April 2013, but the problem affects fewer people and may draw less attention than congestion in Northern Virginia.9 If regions are left to compete for limited dollars, we may see these problems continuing to be overlooked at the expense of more vocal constituencies in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. The essential question for transportation and infrastructure policy in Virginia is how to fund it. Mr. McAuliffe has made a push for a transportation lock box, which would segment transportation monies out of the general fund and reserve them for transportation projects only. But he has not staked out exactly how he would fund his list of priorities, or support all the efforts he’d like to support. 10 On the whole, McAuliffe’s

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 9 "Governor's Rural Jobs Council Interim Report to the Governor." Office of the Governor Robert F. McDonnell., last modified 4/4/2013, accessed 10/19/2013, 2013,http://www.governor.virginia.gov/ruraljobscouncil/docs/20130408InterimR eportGovernorRuralJobsCouncilApril2013.pdf. 10 Madsen, Nancy. "PolitiFact, Cuccinelli and McAuliffe Ask each Other, "Where's the Beef?"." PolitiFact., last modified 6/13/2013, accessed 10/19,

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! approach to transportation and infrastructure is based around his focus on jobs and economic activity. While McAuliffe has stated that he looks forward to providing further leadership on transportation and infrastructure, he has actually given very few specifics of that leadership, making the overall impact of his plan difficult to determine.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2013,http://www.politifact.com/virginia/article/2013/jun/06/cuccinelli-andmcauliffe-ask-each-other-wheres-mea/.!

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! Education: Ken Cuccinelli’s Vision for Virginia Teachers Kelly Dietz, Ph.D Candidate at the Curry School of Education Ken Cuccinelli believes that all Virginia students, regardless of race or wealth, should have to opportunity to receive a worldclass education. Through drastic reforms and full support for STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math, and Science), school choice, and excellence in teaching, gubernatorial candidate and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has set out a plan intended to make Virginia’s K-12 education system one of the best and most equitable in the country. Recently, such reform-minded education plans have become popular in Virginia politics. Just this year, Governor Bob McDonnell signed into law three bills that together make up landmark K-12 education reform legislation for Virginia. These three bills: the Teach for America Act, Opportunity Educational Institution, and A-F School Grading represent a move towards reform-minded education policies that are all modeled after popular policies in other states. The Opportunity Educational Institution, for instance, is aimed at turning around failing schools in a similar manner to the Recovery and Achievement districts in Louisiana and Tennessee, respectively.1 Because these sweeping reforms were passed in the last months of McDonnell’s term, education is shaping up to be one of the more detailed parts of the Virginia gubernatorial platforms for the November election.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Office of the Governor, “Governor McDonnell Ceremonially Signs Landmark K-12 Education Reform Legislation: Teach for America, Opportunity Educational Institution and A-F School Grading Legislation Becomes Law Today,” Office of the Governor Press Release, retrieved from http://www.governor.virginia.gov/news/viewRelease.cfm?id=1875

Virginia Policy Review

! Many of Ken Cuccinelli’s education reform goals continue to build upon what Governor McDonnell worked into legislation this year, signaling a continuation of the July legislation. One set of policy proposals in particular revolves around Cuccinelli’s plan to elevate and support teacher training. In his education plan, Cuccinelli lays out three distinct teacher training goals: 1) to create an engineering endorsement on the Virginia teaching license, 2) to review and reform teacher requirements and establish alternative certification pathways, and 3) to establish an A-F grading system for post-secondary education programs that train teachers. Together, these proposals aim to ensure excellence in the teaching profession by increasing the qualifications of teachers that are recruited into Virginia schools. With exposure to a better-trained teaching force, Cuccinelli argues, Virginia students will excel, and ultimately become a well-trained workforce. The first goal, to create an engineering endorsement for the VA teaching license, supports another of Cuccinelli’s goals – to broaden the K-12 STEM curriculum. Currently, there is already a Technology Education endorsement for the Virginia teaching license, which requires teachers to have graduated from an approved program, completed a minimum amount of technology coursework, and majored in an approved field to receive the endorsement.2 In other states such as Tennessee, certified teachers can earn STEM distinction on their teaching license based on requirements similar to those for Virginia’s current Technology endorsement. 3 Although Cuccinelli does not clearly articulate how the new endorsement will be earned, in theory teachers with enough content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, and experience in engineering will be higher

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 Licensure Regulations for School Personnel, “Career and technical education – technology education, §8VAC20-22-280” (state regulations, The Commonwealth of Virginia, 2013). 3 Tennessee Department of Education. Tennessee licensure standards and induction guidelines. (Nashville, TN, 2013).

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! quality engineering teachers than those without. If this theory holds true, schools will be able to discern which teachers will be better engineering teachers, and thus will be better able to hire teachers to meet their needs in that subject area. Indeed, there is evidence of a link between teachers’ pre-service coursework, in the form of an advanced degree, in mathematics and science and teacher quality in these fields.4 The intended outcome of the engineering endorsement is teachers that are better able to prepare students to work in STEM fields, and specifically engineering, in conjunction with his proposed scale up of the STEM curriculum in Virginia schools. Cuccinelli’s second goal, to reform teaching requirements and establish pathways to alternative certification, is a clear extension of the Teach for America Act passed this spring. The Teach for America Act allows TFA to start operating and placing teachers this school year (2013-14), through two-year provisional licenses for TFA participants.5 Because Teach for America recruits from elite universities across the country, the program could bring high ability teachers that otherwise would not teach here to Virginia’s most disadvantaged schools. Although alternative certification programs are often controversial, there is recent evidence from a Mathematica Policy Research study of Teach for America and New York Teaching Fellows, another alternative certification program in New York City, that shows Teach For America teachers perform better than traditionally certified teachers in middle school mathematics, measured by their student’s achievement scores in math.6 Research shows that Teach For America and

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4 Jennifer King Rice, “Teacher Quality: Understanding the Effectiveness of Teacher Attributes” (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute, 2003). 5 Code of Virginia, “Teach for America license, §22.1-299.4” (state regulations, The Commonwealth of Virginia, 2013). 6 US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance, The Effectiveness of Secondary Math Teachers from Teach For America and the Teaching Fellows Programs, by

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! Teaching Fellows teachers either increase student achievement or do no worse than other teachers in the disadvantaged schools where they are placed. By allowing alternative certification programs, Cuccinelli’s plan could strengthen our teaching force in disadvantaged areas of the state, and will at the very least do no harm. The final goal, to establish an A through F grading system of traditional teacher training programs, through colleges and universities, builds upon the A-F system to grade K-12 schools signed into law this summer, and aligns with a larger national push to evaluate the quality of teacher preparation programs. Although there is no specific distinction for how the A-F grades will be measured yet, the accountability system may incentivize low-performing teacher training programs to improve, and allow K-12 schools statewide to delineate the quality of the program from which a new teaching candidate comes. Evidence on the effects of K-12 school grading systems can provide insight into how such a grading scale may work for teacher training programs. Recent economic research shows that K-12 schools given an “F” grade in accountability systems show statistically significant student achievement gains in the next year. 7 However, benefits may only help when accountability goals, such as a higher grade, are attainable. Theoretically, there may be a lower limit to which accountability incentives work. That is, if a school is too far from reaching the next benchmark or does not have the

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Melissa Clark, Hanley Chiang, Tim Silva, Sheena McConnell, Kathy Sonnenfeld, Anastasia Erbe, and Michael Puma, NCEE 2013-4015 (Washington, DC, 2013). 7 David Figlio and Cecilia Rouse, “Do Accountability and Voucher Threats Improve Low-Performing Schools?” Journal of Public Economics 90, no. 1-2 (2006): 239-255; Jonah Rockoff and Lesley Turner, “Short-run Impacts of Accountability on School Quality,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2, no. 4 (2010): 119-47; Chiang, “How Accountability Pressure on Failing Schools Affects Student Achievement,” Journal of Public Economics 93, no. 9-10 (2009): 1045-1057.

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! resources to do so, there is little incentive for it to make changes to improve. 8 It is no small leap to consider this mechanism at work in A-F accountability for teacher training programs. While knowledge of teacher training program quality will likely be helpful for a vast majority of Virginia schools, the same knowledge may unintentionally disadvantage the schools that already find it hard to attract teachers from higher ends of the ability distribution. Schools with more resources may be able to cherry-pick teachers from the A or B ranked programs, and focus on their recruitment, leaving teachers from programs with the lowest grades for disadvantaged schools. Although this is largely how teacher recruitment already works, there is the potential that the knowledge of program grades will intensify the problem. Cuccinelli’s teacher policies aim to elevate and support teaching in Virginia, and to make hiring decisions for all Virginia schools more informed. Evidence suggests that established alternative certification programs, like Teach For America, can increase student achievement in disadvantaged areas of the state, subject coursework for STEM teachers can increase their teaching quality, and accountability systems grading teacher preparation programs may only be effective for programs doing well enough, or on the cusp. However, there are certainly some potential negative consequences of Cuccinelli’s proposed programs. Untested or less established alternative certification programs than TFA providing teachers to disadvantaged areas of the state may lead to a more extreme gap in teaching quality between wealthy and poor districts. Finally, some of the proposed programs are vague like the A-F

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8

Susanna Loeb and David Figlio, “ Accountability,” Handbook of the Economics of Education 3: 383-423.

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! teacher preparation grading system, or only have evidence from specific school districts, making their implications for Virginia difficult to nail down. Although they include potential unintended consequences, Cuccinelliâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s proposed teacher policies represent an effort to support and further professionalize teaching across the Commonwealth.

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! Candidate McAuliffe’s Education Platform: A Focus on Community Colleges Natalie Roper, MPP 2014 Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe has made state support of community colleges the primary focus of his education platform. Specifically, he proposes the following policies to give Virginia’s 23 community colleges the tools to succeed: (1) provide state support through challenge grants; (2) decrease purchase and hiring restrictions on community colleges; (3) increase support for workforce-development programs; (4) increase collaboration with local high schools; and (5) implement the use of “career coaches” in high schools. While these directives are generalized, Mr. McAuliffe clearly believes in prioritizing the community college system and knows that without state support it cannot succeed. Given the demonstrated importance of the community college system to statewide economic development and its dependence on state funding, Mr. McAuliffe has sound justification for making Virginia’s community college system a priority in his campaign. Community colleges provide affordable access to higher education, critical in a climate of simultaneously increasing tuition and demand for postsecondary degrees. The price of four-year public higher education has increased substantially over the last two decades. In Virginia, tuition and fees rose by an average of 150 percent between the 1992-93 school year and the 2011-12 school year. Over the same period, average annual income increased far less than the price of higher education.1

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1

Justin Brown, Drew Dickinson, Laura Parker, and Greg Rest, Trends in Higher Education, Funding, Enrollment, and Student Costs, (Richmond, VA: Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, 2013)http://jlarc.virginia.gov/reports/Rpt441.pdf (accessed October 19, 2013),i-ii.

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! This at a time when demand for higher education is increasing; the share of jobs in the U.S. economy that require postsecondary education has risen from 28% to 59% between 1973 and 2008. Projections show that this proportion will increase from 59% to 63% nationally over the next decade. 2 Under these circumstances, it is no surprise that in the fall of 2011 enrollment at community colleges accounted for 43% of total undergraduate enrollment. 3 Given this perfect storm of factors, Terry McAuliffeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s focus on increasing investment in Virginiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s community college system seems timely and warranted. Furthermore, community colleges are proven drivers of economic development. Each successive level of education attained results in increases to tax revenues, both in median taxes paid and in comparison to students who have not completed a high school credential.4 Part of this effect is no doubt due to the dramatically lower rates of unemployment and incarceration among postsecondary graduates. Taking into account the increased tax revenues and societal gains from avoided costs, the estimated lifetime taxpayer benefit ranges from $24,000 to $51,000 (in 2002 dollars), depending on factors such as race and gender.5

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Anthony Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeff Strohl, Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018, (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2010)http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf (accessed October 19, 2013), 14-15. 3 Anthony Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeff Strohl, Help wanted: Projections of job and education requirements through 2018, Lumina Foundation, 2010. 4 Christopher Mullin, A Sound Investment: The Community College Dividend, (Washington, D.C.: American Association of Community Colleges, 2011) http://www.aacc.nche.edu/Publications/Briefs/Documents/201101PBL_Investment.pdf (accessed October 19, 2013), 4. 5 Carroll, Stephen J. and Emre Erkut. The Benefits to Taxpayers from Increases in Students' Educational Attainment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG686.

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! Another major advantage of investment in community colleges is that because of job fit and job creation geared towards their locales, they yield mostly local returns. Community college students are much more likely to stay in their communities after graduation than their peers at traditional four-year universities.6 According to a study conducted in Oregon, 87% of former community college students remained in the region 30 years after leaving college.7 Community colleges are also unique in their mixture of technical and academic faculty. Many faculty members have work experience with local industry, making them attuned to the needs of that industry and to the specific learning requirements of current and future workers. As a result, community colleges are able to provide specialized training options that ensure the local workforce can meet the needs of local industries.8 Concurrently, this type of training directly benefits employers and encourages them to invest in a pipeline of work-ready employees. 9 For example, Western Nebraska Community College was able to fit their course offerings with the employee training needs of the college’s now “single most important training ‘customer,’” the international retailer Cabela. 10 This partnership also helps to keep the Cabela’s headquarters in Sidney, Nebraska, serving as an important economic driver for

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6

Mullin, “A Sound Investment,” 7. M.H. Robison and K.A Christophersen. The Economic Contribution of the Community Colleges of Oregon,Washington, DC: CC Benefits, Inc, 2006. 8 Terry McAuliffe for Governor, "On the Issues: Education." Accessed October 19, 2013. http://terrymcauliffe.com/on-the-issues/education/. 9 Mullin, “A Sound Investment,” 7. 10 David Shaffer, and David Wright, A New Paradigm for Economic Development, (Albany, NY: The Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government at University of Albany, 2010)http://www.rockinst.org/pdf/education/2010-03-18A_New_Paradigm.pdf (accessed October 19, 2013), 27. 7

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! the small community. 11 Similarly, a group of five community colleges in Alabama worked together to create a certificate and degree program in automotive manufacturing technology to meet the needs of the state’s growing automotive industry. This specific program ensured students were qualified for jobs with Mercedes, Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai.12 It is encouraging that Mr. McAuliffe is open to supporting similar programs in Virginia. State support often determines community college success. Compared with four-year universities, community colleges are far more dependent on public funding. Their tuition is low, they receive less money from alumni donations, have no out-ofstate tuition and small or non-existent endowments. 13 Crookston and Hooks’ research provides evidence that established community colleges made a significant contribution to employment growth until 1997, when state support of the community college system began to decrease. 14 After 1997, states that provided below average appropriations to community colleges saw decreased employment growth. This evidence suggests that Virginia’s community colleges are unable to thrive without robust state support, a pillar of Mr. McAuliffe’s proposed education policy. Unfortunately, the proposed financial backing for this platform is uncertain. Funding for increased investment in community colleges would come from state savings created by the federal investment to expand Medicaid as part of the Affordable Care

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 11 David Shaffer and David Wright. A new paradigm for economic development: How higher education institutions are working to revitalize their regional and state economies. Rockefeller Institute of Government, University at Albany, 2010. 12 Mullin, “A Sound Investment,” 8. 13 Andrew Crookston, and Gregory Hooks, "Community Colleges, Budget Cuts, and Jobs: The Impact of Community Colleges on Employment Growth in Rural U.S. Counties, 1976-2004," Sociology of Education, 85, no. 4 (2012): 352, http://soe.sagepub.com/content/85/4/350.full.pdf (accessed October 19, 2013). 14 Ibid 365.

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! Act. 15 Of course, the Commonwealth of Virginia has not yet elected to expand Medicaid. Even if Mr. McAuliffe is elected, this source of funding remains uncertain given continued Republican control of the state legislature.16 Because research shows that the community college provide affordable access to increasingly necessary higher education, drive economic development, and yield local returns, Mr. McAuliffe’s prioritization is admirable. However state funding is critical for community college success, and these proposed investments are financially contingent on Medicaid expansion, which may or may not materialize. Increased investment in community colleges is a sound education proposal for Virginia’s future. However the funding source, as currently proposed, may not sustain Mr. McAuliffe’s proposal.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 15 Fredrick Kunkle, “Cuccinelli Says Price Tag for McAuliffe’s Campaign Promises Totals $14 Billion,” Washington Post, October 9, 2013, accessed October 11, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginiapolitics/cuccinelli-says-price-tag-for-mcauliffes-campaign-promises-totals-14billion/2013/10/09/1fc11abe-30f4-11e3-9c68-1cf643210300_story.html. 16 Laura Vozzella, “If elected, McAuliffe faces showdown with Va. House Republicans over Obamacare,” Washington Post, September 14, 2013, accessed October 11, 2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-0914/local/42058862_1_medicaid-expansion-terry-mcauliffe-house-republicans.

Virginia Policy Review

! Candidate Cuccinelli’s Jobs Plan and its Impact on Virginia Caitlin Connolly, MPP 2014 Jobs have again been at the forefront of the Virginia gubernatorial campaigns this year, despite the fact that Virginia’s current 5.8 percent unemployment rate falls below that of its neighboring states and the nationwide average of 7.3 percent as well as that of neighboring states, jobs have been at the forefront of the Virginia gubernatorial campaigns this year.1 The recession affected Virginia deeply, and post-recession growth has slowed significantly due to the sequester. The sequester and post-shutdown fallout will continue to impact Virginia’s economy due to the state’s heavy reliance on federal jobs, contracts, and military investment. Virginia Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli has a jobs plan he believes will solve this problem by creating 58,000 jobs for the Commonwealth, and creating new benefits for taxpayers.2 First, Mr. Cuccinelli proposes reducing the individual income tax from 5.75 percent to 5 percent and corporate income tax rates from 6 percent to 4 percent. Second, he plans to establish a Small Business Tax Relief Commission to reexamine certain business taxes. Third, he intends to ensure that the state government’s general fund does not exceed the sum of inflation and population growth. 3 Mr. Cuccinelli claims his proposed

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 "Unemployment Rates for States." U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 20 2013, http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm (accessed October 15, 2013). 2 Michael Thompson. "Jefferson Institute Likes the Cuccinelli Tax and Spending Plan." Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, (Springfield). 3 "Ken Has A Plan For Jobs." Ken Cuccinelli for Virginia Governor 2013. Cuccinelli, September 2013, http://www.cuccinelli.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/07/Jobs-Plan.pdf (accessed October 15, 2013).

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! $1.4 billion tax cut would be offset by the elimination of loopholes in Virginia’s tax code.4 The Commonwealth must tread carefully when it comes to new tax and policy proposals that could impact its economic status.5 Virginia maintained its AAA bond rating throughout the recession, and has been cited as one of the best-managed states in the United States for roughly two decades.6 Virginia recently regained its title as the number one state in which to do business. Meanwhile, this August Virginia collected 4.8 percent less in taxes than last August. There had been a 1.4 percent projected revenue growth for the whole year, and total revenue had been growing 3.6 percent into August before it sagged. By cutting the individual income tax rate to 5 percent, Cuccinelli’s plan would benefit those with incomes just above the $17,000 level in addition to those making higher incomes. Virginia’s tax bracket is currently set up so someone making only $17,000 will pay the highest income tax rate, currently 5.75 percent.7 This discrepancy comes from the fact that the current

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4 Bill Sizemore. "McAuliffe: Cuccinelli Tax Cut Would De-fund Schools."HamptonRoads.com: Entertainment and Guides for Hampton Roads, Va. Pilot Online, September 04 2013, http://hamptonroads.com/2013/09/mcauliffe-cuccinelli-tax-cut-would-defundschools (accessed October 15, 2013). 5 Bob Brown. "Virginia No. 1 again for best state for business, Forbes says." Times Dispatch (Richmond), September 28, 2013. http://www.timesdispatch.com/business/local/virginia-no-again-for-best-statefor-business-forbes-says/article_85d73d36-939f-5e70-acfa-696d5490e853.html (accessed October 15, 2013). 6 Jon Shields, Anna Chu, and Shapiro Emma. "The Real Cost of Cuccinelli." Center for American Progress Action Fund, September 2013: 1, http://www.americanprogressaction.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/09/RealCostofCuccinelli-2.pdf (accessed October 15, 2013). 7 Kathryn Watson. "Experts say Cuccinelli, McAuliffe plans to cut taxes will boost economy — but are they enough?." Watchdog.org Virginia Bureau.

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! Virginia tax is progressive only on the first $17,000 earned, and is in essence a flat tax past the $17,000 income level. In general, a 5 percent gross income reduction affects those earning a low income much more than someone who earns tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. The Center for American Progress predicts that Virginia millionaires would see a $6,391 tax break compared to the lower and middle class income households, who would see modest real reductions in their taxes but bear the brunt of any service cuts. 8 This disproportionate burden stems from Virginia’s regressive-like tax bracket. In addition to personal income tax rates, Mr. Cuccinelli intends to cut corporate tax rates. If his administration succeeds in cutting corporate taxes to 4 percent, Virginia will have the lowest maximum rate among all 43 states that currently have a corporate income tax. 9 This cut would undoubtedly be an attractive feature to businesses considering a move to the state. Mr. Cuccinelli’s plan rests on the assumption that a corporate tax rate cut from 6 to 4 percent may decrease the burden on workers in the Commonwealth, hopefully spurring employer hiring and consumer spending, contributing to his estimate of a 58,000 increase in jobs. 10 Revenue cuts without offsetting increases, however, could have adverse effects on Virginia’s infrastructure and education spending, both important factors for businesses when deciding to locate to the Commonwealth. In fact, Virginia’s failure to invest in infrastructure improvements was the reason the state slipped from CNBC’s

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://watchdog.org/83780/experts-say-cuccinelli-mcauliffe-plans-to-cut-taxeswill-boost-economy-but-are-they-enough/ (accessed October 15, 2013). 8 Shields, Anna Chu, and Shapiro Emma. "The Real Cost,” 4. 9 Peter Ferrara. "Ken Cuccinelli Emerges As One Of The Nation's Most Innovative Policy Makers - Forbes." Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/17/ken-cuccinelli-emerges-asone-of-the-nations-most-innovative-policy-makers/ (accessed October 16, 2013). 10 Ferrara, “Ken Cuccinelli Emerges.”

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! number one spot for best state in which to do business.11 In addition to tax cuts, needed infrastructure improvements should play a key role in a business-friendly platform. Finally, Mr. Cuccinelli plans to limit state spending growth to the rate of population growth plus inflation. Over the past ten years, this rate has been 3.3 percent. 12 The cap is not unreasonable, especially given that revenue in the Commonwealth was growing by 3.6 percent in early August. However, there are some downsides to the proposed spending cap. Government spending tends to increase during times of economic depression or disaster. Although a balanced budget each year is ideal, a policy capping spending growth at roughly 3.3 percent could potentially limit the Commonwealth’s role in helping citizens during times of unforeseen economic depression and emergencies. Of concern in Attorney General Cuccinelli’s proposal is the persistent ambiguity as to where revenue will increase in order to offset his tax cuts. This ambiguity leaves open the possibility that the tax breaks could require significant cuts to state investment in infrastructure, education, and other services, the functioning of which contributes Virginia’s number one rating as the best place to do business and its AAA bond rating. Mr. Cuccinelli’s tax cuts represent lower rates for all but a few Virginians, who would hopefully spend their saved income in Virginia and grow the Commonwealth’s economy. This plan shows promise, but absent clear funding offsets we cannot be sure that reduced rates will not come at the expense of deep cuts to infrastructure and other state spending, the brunt of which would be born by lower-income citizens.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 11 12

Jon Shields, Anna Chu, and Shapiro Emma. "The Real Cost,” 4. Ferrara, “Ken Cuccinelli Emerges.”

Virginia Policy Review

! Candidate McAuliffe’s Economic Platform Alex Dumitriu, MPP 2014 ‘Putting jobs first’ is the Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe’s campaign slogan. McAuliffe’s platform focuses on offshore wind energy as one the greatest future job creators in the Commonwealth. If offshore wind energy is effectively developed, this could create thousands of jobs in Virginia. This nascent industry, however, would only create jobs on the Eastern shore, contributing little to the rest of the state. The purpose of this article is to analyze McAuliffe’s economic platform and its implications for the Commonwealth of Virginia. The Current Economic Landscape in Virginia With recent accolades for being the best state for business1 and an unemployment rate 1.5 percentage points below the national average, the Commonwealth still faces unique economic challenges. 2 These difficulties are directly associated with a dependency on the defense industry in the northern and eastern regions and the decline of manufacturing in the south and southwestern regions. Economic vitality is geographically relative across the Commonwealth. Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area have the lowest unemployment rates (below 5%), and mean wages of $63,750 and $42,820, respectively. 3,4 Meanwhile, Southside and Southwest Virginia

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 "Virginia Tops 2013 List of the Best States for Business – Forbes," Information for the World's Business Leaders - Forbes.com, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2013/09/25/virginia-tops-2013list-of-the-best-states-for-business/ (accessed October 10, 2013). 2 "Bureau of Labor Statistics Data," Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST51000003 (accessed October 10, 2013). 3 "Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC - May 2012 OES Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates,"

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! report unemployment rates of 9.1 or higher and mean wages of $33,990 and $33,950. A comprehensive economic development policy must focus on each of these areas and address their unique challenges in different ways. A Focus on Energy McAuliffe’s platform places particularly heavy focus on energy jobs. The campaign quotes the Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium (VCERC) in estimating that offshore wind projects would create between 9,700 and 11,600 new jobs. 5 These jobs would be the result of building and maintaining offshore wind turbines, which will also reduce the cost of energy to a value that makes offshore energy feasible. The cost of a megawatt-hour (MWH) for a new energygenerating project is estimated at $105-130 for an offshore wind farm, $85-100 for a coal-fired plant, and $80-100 for a gas turbine plant. 6,7 These numbers do not account for additional costs for mitigation of carbon dioxide emission or future revenues from the sale of renewable energy certificates (RECs),

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_47260.htm (accessed October 10, 2013). 4 "Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV - May 2012 OES Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates," U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_47900.htm (accessed October 10, 2013). 5 "Energy Jobs of the Future | Terry McAuliffe for Governor," Terry McAuliffe for Governor, http://terrymcauliffe.com/on-the-issues/jobs-economy/energyjobs-of-the-future/ (accessed October 10, 2013). 6 All estimates are levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in constant March 2008 dollars. LCOE is the cost of generating electricity, including the initial capital, discount rate, as well as the costs of continuous operation, fuel, and maintenance. 7 George Hagerman, Jr., “Virginia Offshore Wind Studies,” Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium, (2010). http://www.vcerc.org/VCERC_Final_Report_Offshore_Wind_Studies_Full_Rep ort_new.pdf (accessed October 10, 2013).

Virginia Policy Review

! which reached a high of $73 per megawatt-hour in January 2013.8 On September 20th, 2013 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed new carbon pollution standards that would cap carbon dioxide production to 1,000 pounds per megawatt-hour for new large gas-fired turbines, and to 1,100 pounds per megawatt-hour for new small gas-fired turbines or new coalfired units.9 Ten days after this announcement, McAuliffe said he supports the EPA’s new standards.10 The VCERC estimates the costs of the carbon capture and sequestration process at $25 per 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide, if the standards were implemented at new plants. With the new EPA standards, an offshore wind project will yield energy costs that are competitive with the energy costs of coal-fired and gas-turbine plants. Because offshore wind farms are yet to be built, initial construction costs must be factored into the cost of wind energy. However the lower variable cost of offshore wind energy makes it, in theory, a price-competitive form of energy in the commonwealth. A renewable energy certificate represents “the property rights to the environmental, social, and other non-power qualities of renewable electricity generation,” such as the elimination of

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"Green Power Network: Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs): REC Prices," Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy | Department of Energy, http://apps3.eere.energy.gov/greenpower/markets/certificates.shtml?page=5 (accessed October 10, 2013). 9 "EPA Proposes Carbon Pollution Standards for New Power Plants," United States Environmental Protection Agency, http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/da9640577ceacd9f85257beb006cb2b 6!OpenDocument (accessed October 10, 2013). 10 Ben Pershing, "McAuliffe says for first time that he supports EPA rules on coal-fired plants," The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/after-hedging-mcauliffesays-for-first-time-he-supports-epa-rules-on-coal-firedplants/2013/10/01/42075002-2ab4-11e3-97a3-ff2758228523_story.html (accessed October 10, 2013).

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! greenhouse gas production. 11 One REC is issued for each megawatt-hour unit of renewable electricity produced. The sale of RECs from offshore wind energy could lower the cost per megawatt-hour by as much as half, making offshore wind farms the most cost-effective energy producers in the Commonwealth. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimates that the majority of the offshore wind project value is associated with the turbine supply contract, which can be fulfilled by expanding the already existing shipbuilding industry.12 Jobs that result from turbine manufacturing are “ondock or at-sea installation jobs and in-plant jobs that directly produce purchased equipment or components.”13 Indirect jobs are created in sectors that supply materials and services related to turbine manufacturing and the offshore wind farms. The injection of new income into the local economy will create induced employment in other areas, such as goods and services. In total, a project “would support 6,200 jobs that could last for a two-decade career.”14 New operation and maintenance would create another 3,500 to 5,400 jobs after the first 3,200 megawatts, raising the estimates to the 9,700 and 11,600 jobs cited by McAuliffe. An offshore wind project is certainly feasible in Virginia. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has identified a formal Wind Energy Area of 112,799 acres approximately 23 nautical miles from Virginia Beach.15 The BOEM also concluded that no

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 11 “Renewable Energy Ceritificates,” United States Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/gpmarket/rec.htm (accessed October 10, 2013). 12 George Hagerman, Jr., 28. 13 George Hagerman, Jr., 29. 14 George Hagerman, Jr., 29. 15 Federal Register – Vol. 77, No. 23, p. 5545 (February 3, 2012).

Virginia Policy Review

! significant impacts would result from issuing leases to developers for site assessment activities in the Wind Energy Area.16 On September 4th, Dominion Virginia Power leased the entire area. The company has six months to submit a site assessment and four years and six months to submit construction plans.17 The company plans to run a pilot project in 2018 that would be capable of producing 12 megawatts of energy.18 This production level is far below the 3,200 megawatts of offshore energy potential identified by VCERC. Mary Doswell, the senior vice president for alternative energy solutions at Dominion Virginia Power, said, “We think it is a large-scale, sustainable resource, but we need to work on the cost." 19 Making offshore energy a reality in Virginia would require incentives for companies to build wind farms. Changing regulation regarding renewable energy, such as requiring that a portion or all RECs bought by Virginia companies be produced in the Commonwealth, would also be a step in ensuring that the offshore wind industry develops. The potential of offshore wind projects makes them attractive as an economic development alternative, as well as a platform focus. Despite the well-developed economic activity in the Hampton Roads, where the offshore project will be, the area

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Federal Register – Vol. 77, No. 23, p. 5560 (February 3, 2012). Lenny Bernstein, "Dominion Virginia wins right to lease ocean tract for wind farm,” The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/healthscience/dominion-virginia-wins-right-to-lease-ocean-tract-for-windfarm/2013/09/04/b25f8afa-15aa-11e3-be6e-dc6ae8a5b3a8_story.html (accessed October 10, 2013). 18 “Dominion Virginia Power's and Dominion North Carolina Power's Report of Its Integrated Resource Plan,” Dominion Virginia Power, https://www.dom.com/about/pdf/irp/chapter-5.pdf (accessed October 10, 2013). 19 Robert McCartney, “Dominion Virginia Power won’t build offshore wind farm on tract it leased unless cost drops,” The Washington Post, Septermber 14, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dominion-virginia-power-wontbuild-offshore-wind-farm-on-tract-it-leased-unless-costdrops/2013/09/14/4b11661e-1cc8-11e3-82ef-a059e54c49d0_story.html (accessed October 10, 2013). 17

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! has lost an estimated $1.1 billion and 4,487 jobs due to sequestration. 20 The area is in dire need of economic diversification, and proposals in the field of energy production appear to provide a feasible long-term solution. Any mention of renewable energy tends to rouse concerns that it will displace more traditional forms of energy generation. In Virginia, this concern is amplified because the majority of the coal production takes place in the southwestern counties of Buchanan, Dickenson and Wise, the poorest in the state. Coal currently accounts for nearly one-half of the Commonwealth’s electricity generation.21 Despite national coal production increasing over the past 15 years, production in Virginia has decreased by more than half since 1990. 22 Employment in the coal industry in Southwest Virginia has also decreased from 13.2 percent in 1990 to 5.2 percent in 2010. That same year, a mere 0.1 percent of employed Virginians worked in coalmines.23 This downward trend is due largely to productivity gains and competitive pressure, and started well before offshore wind energy was considered as a viable energy option. Despite economic diversification efforts in the Southwest region, the coal industry still accounts for large portion of

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James V. Koch, “Defense Spending Reductions and the City of Virginia Beach,” Virginia Beach City Council, April 9, 2013, http://images.bimedia.net/documents/sequester+report.pdf (accessed October 10, 2013). 21 “Virginia State Profile and Energy Estimates,” United States Energy Information Administration, October 2009, http://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.cfm?sid=VA (accessed October 10, 2013). 22 “The Economic Impact of the Coal Industry in Virginia,” Chmura Economics and Analysis, January 18, 2012, http://www.chmuraecon.com/pdfs/CoalIndustry_EconomicImpact.pdf (accessed October 10, 2013). 23 “The Economic Impact of Coal,” 3

Virginia Policy Review

! economic activity. In 2010, the total annual economic impact of the coal industry was estimated at $2.9 billion and 10,637 jobs (5,062 direct jobs).24 The coal industry has a large ripple impact because of its high wages. The multiplier was 2.1, meaning that every job in the coal industry supported an additional 1.1 jobs in the region. 25 In 1988, the Virginia legislature created the Virginia Coalfield Economic Development Authority (VCEDA). Since its establishment, VCEDA has brought 18,600 jobs to the region, increasing the economic diversity of its industry base.26 The health of this region has been a concern for many administrations; economic diversification efforts to reduce dependency on the coal industry have been in place for 25 years. While McAuliffe offers a new and appealing energy plan that could create jobs in the Commonwealth, he does not have a comprehensive jobs plan. Since no new mines are planned in Virginia, it is unlikely that offshore wind projects will displace energy production in the Southwest region.27 Wind farms will instead serve as an additional source of energy generation, diversifying the economy of the Hampton Roads area. While wind energy poses little threat to coal industry job creation in the southwest region, these areas remain among the poorest in the state. McAuliffe’s jobs plan could have a positive impact on the eastern region, and could put Virginia in the forefront of renewable energy production. As a gubernatorial candidate he should have a jobs platform that encompasses the entire state, but that also particular emphasis on the poorest and most economically depressed areas.

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“The Economic Impact of Coal,” 5 “The Economic Impact of Coal,” 5 26 “The Economic Impact of Coal,” 7 27 “Proposed coal mines in the United States,” Source Watch, http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Category:Proposed_coal_mines_in_the_ United_States (accessed October 10, 2013). 25

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