THE OIL MARKET ANNUAL OUTLOOK JAN’17
Libya Libya is the other OPEC member that was granted exemption from the production cut announced in Dec 2016. Prior to the uprising and overthrowing of the country’s leadership in 2011, production stood at 1.6m bpd. It quickly fell to almost nothing that same year. Current production in Jan 2017 stands at 0.7m bpd (0.6m bpd in Dec 2016). This is set to rise to 0.9m bpd by end Q1 2017 and 1.2m bpd by the end of the year. This represents an upcoming offset of 0.6m bpd of OPEC’s announced output cut. Combined with Nigeria’s potential room on the upside, this amounts to a total offset of slightly more than 1.0m out of the agreed 1.2m bpd cut. The UN backed Government of National Accord governs Libya, from Tripoli Westwards. The administration was able to work with the Petroleum Facilities Guard to lift a two year blockade on oil pipelines from the economically important Al-Feel fields. Also, the last of nine main oil export terminals (Zawiya terminal) was recently reopened and exports will resume shortly. Things are on course to higher output numbers as long as the Libyan National Army is able to keep revolts and attacks that could cripple oil infrastructures.
Source: Bloomberg/Global Risk Management
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