RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
Supporting Pandemic Planning
Pandemic influenza represents a significant seasonal threat globally. Government policy makers and pandemic planners wrestle with forecasting the influenza season every year. They never know how an emerging virus’ features may change during a pandemic, altering the optimal antiviral, its dose and deployment strategy. Pandemic influenza is difficult for health authorities to manage for the aforementioned reasons. In addition, while it is spread by direct contact between individuals, there are a number of variables that affect its population impact — its degree of infectivity and virulence, patient resistance, the antiviral, dose and timing used, and preventative measures taken such as closing schools or wearing face masks.
Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is a major component of national stockpiles and pandemic influenza planning worldwide. By coupling MID3 methodology with epidemiology, viral characteristic and healthcare utilisation measures, an agent-based model has now been developed that can show officials how an influenza virus infection can propagate through a community and nation. This model can demonstrate how a drug can influence an individual’s disease burden directly or a population’s disease burden indirectly via a reduction in viral shedding which can lead to decreased virus transmission. The proof-ofconcept model was based on oseltamivir. Such an approach can be used to develop a PPH model for any infectious disease.
This model also provides a quantitative framework that enables public health officials, physicians, pharmacologists, pharmacometricians, epidemiologists and health economists to all speak the same language and engage in meaningful dialogue with industry regulators and payers. As a result, this type of model allows health authorities to make informed realtime decisions when responding to a public health emergency. Conclusion
MID3 provides valuable insights that allow governments and public health authorities to be appropriately prepared and enables them to make objective, informed decisions when faced with manmade and naturally-occurring public health emergencies.
AUTHOR BIO
References are available at www.pharmafocusasia.com Farrell has more than 20 years’ experience in the biopharmaceutical industry. He has served as Vice President of Business Development at Biota Pharmaceuticals, Associate Director at GBS Venture Partners, Research Manager at Johnson & Johnson Research, and CEO of Gene Shears. He is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, a Non-executive Director of Pro Medicus Limited, and a member of the Walter & Eliza Hall Institute Board Commercialization Committee.
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