OPINION & ANALYSIS
OCTOBER 17-23, 2011
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Have Poles created a monster? Remi Adekoya
A
fter making history on October 9 by becoming the first prime minister in post-communist Poland to lead his party to back-toback parliamentary election victories, Donald Tusk is now flexing his muscles to let everybody know who’s the boss. It all started with his first postelection interview last week, when he told current affairs weekly Polityka
“Greater men than Donald Tusk have fallen victim to vanity after lesser victories” that he didn’t plan to make any changes to government until after December 31 this year, when Poland finishes its term as president of the European Union. The comments sparked controversy, with headlines such as: “Donald Tusk has appointed himself prime minister,” dominating the media the next day. His party colleagues also expressed surprise, saying they had not
been informed of Mr Tusk’s intentions. Usually, a PM-elect emerges after the president has designated him as such, formally handing him the mandate to form a majority in parliament and create a government. Of course, due to Civic Platform’s (PO) resounding election victory, President Bronis∏aw Komorowski would have asked Mr Tusk to form a government anyway. But the impression created was that the PM was arrogantly jumping the gun. Donald Tusk later backed down from his Polityka comments and announced last Thursday that a new government would be in place by November 22 and that he had the president’s full support for his plans.
loyal to the PM, to replace Mr Schetyna as speaker of the Sejm, one of Polish politics’ most important positions. The PM also referred to Mr Schetyna as the “leader of the internal opposition [in PO] and someone who had been aspiring to the role of rival,” at the press conference. One of Mr Schetyna’s allies has described Mr Tusk’s coments as “a declaration of war.” Mr Tusk has not yet specified what position he will offer Mr Schetyna in his new government. This delay has widely been interpreted as a public slap in the face for Mr Schetyna, who was once Donald Tusk’s personal friend and closest political ally.
Pre-emptive strike All of this was to be expected. Mr Tusk’s move is understandable in a Machiavellian context. It was a preemptive strike. The PM knows there are difficult times ahead. The world is bracing for a second economic crisis, one which would likely hit Poland far harder than the previous one did. But even before that is felt, the government is probably going to have to make some spending cuts in order
A declaration of war? At the same press conference, Mr Tusk also made some interesting comments regarding Sejm Speaker Grzegorz Schetyna, the number-two man in PO. Mr Tusk said he would be recommending Health Minister Ewa Kopacz, who is known to be fiercely
to balance the budget. All this means that within a short period of time, Mr Tusk’s popularity is likely to slip significantly. It is in such situations that a pretender usually makes his play for the crown. The only person in PO strong enough to attempt a party coup is Mr Schetyna, so the PM is doing everything he can to weaken his position in the party.
A sign of things to come? The more pertinent question for Poland is whether all of this – a oneoff display of brutal but perfectly understandable political maneuvering – is a sign of things to come. Due to his historic win, Mr Tusk now enjoys the kind of hero worship Tony Blair did in the Labor Party after his 2001 re-election victory. Things did not end well for Mr Blair, as he went on to defy opposition from outside and inside his party to embark on the Iraq War. The decision tainted his reputation and will likely be what he is most remembered for. Donald Tusk might not have to decide whether to take Poland to war or not, but he will certainly have to
Yanukovych’s gamble
L
ast Tuesday’s decision by a Ukrainian court to sentence former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison while the country’s legislators look to implement a legal solution that would decriminalize her offense constitutes a bet on the part of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych that he can get away with sidelining a political foe without harming Ukraine’s European prospects. Though Mr Yanukovych claims that he has no control over an independent judge passing the verdict, few believe that such a politically sensitive case would be left alone by the government. Ukraine isn’t exactly known for its independent judiciary.
European aspirations.” Even the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, arguably the biggest supporter of Ukraine’s European integration, released a statement admitting that “Ukraine’s image as a country that is undertaking a fundamental pro-European transformation has been tarnished.” The severity of the reaction in Brussels and throughout EU member states suggests that European leaders will hold Yanukovych accountable for what’s been described as a “political trial” and a “violation of democracy and the rule of law” by some of Ukraine’s closest supporters in Europe, heavyweight Polish MEPs Jacek Saryusz-Wolski and Pawe∏ Zalewski.
Swift reaction The reaction to the ruling was swift and strong. EU diplomacy chief Catherine Ashton said that “justice is being applied selectively in politically motivated prosecutions.” Wilfried Martens, head of the European People’s Party, the biggest party in the European Parliament, called for suspending the signing of an association agreement with Ukraine and said that “the court process and the decision is shameful for a country that has
Difficult to defend The conviction has made it very difficult for Ukraine’s friends to argue the case for its closer integration with the EU through the association agreement and the free-trade agreement to be signed at the end of the year. Mr Yanukovych might have overplayed his hand. Whether or not the EU decides to cancel his planned October 20 trip to Brussels will be the best indicator of this.
Ms Tymoshenko’s conviction was received in Warsaw with much consternation, but without surprise. Poland has made closer ties between the EU and Ukraine one of the main priorities of its EU Presidency. Poland hoped the association agreement would be a crowning achievement of its six-month stint at EU’s helm. Over many months, Polish diplomacy has been working to avoid the train wreck of Tymoshenko’s conviction. Poles know that Ms Tymoshenko is no saint, and have made the case to the Ukrainian government that she is using the trial to focus attention on herself both domestically and internationally. Polish President Bronis∏aw Komorowski met frequently with President Yanukovych to make sure that he fully understood the consequences of her sentencing. Nevertheless, Ms Tymoshenko’s trial overshadowed the Eastern Partnership summit that took place in Warsaw in mid-September, and now the guilty verdict threatens to derail the important free-trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine, which would solidify Ukraine’s path towards European integration. Mr Yanukovych has made it very difficult for Ukraine’s friends to help him.
make decisions that will have farreaching consequences for the lives of millions of Poles. Greater men than Donald Tusk have fallen victim to vanity after lesser victories. If the PM eliminates all those who disagree with him from his immediate circles then he will be left with sycophants and adoring fans. That would not bode well for Poland, especially in the face of the difficulties ahead. The PM now has a cooperative president, a party grateful to him for keeping them in power and, crucially, the backing of many in the media. If ever there was a time when muchneeded reforms could be made in Poland, that time is now. But if there is nobody by his side but yes men, then Poland could end up being stuck with a capricious emperor. Let us hope that Donald Tusk understands the importance of political dissent, and that Poles will not wake up one day to discover they have created a monster. ● Remi Adekoya is WBJ’s politics editor. Read his blog “The business of politics” on WBJ.pl
Micha∏ Baranowski
Plenty of motives Mr Yanukovych’s motives for going through with the trial were both political and economic. The guilty verdict bars Ms Tymoshenko from taking part in the next parliamentary elections, in which she and her supporters would be the biggest challenge for Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. Convicting Tymoshenko also serves as a shot across the bow to other opposition leaders in Kiev, as well as to backbenchers in Yanukovych’s party. The timing of the verdict is even better explained by economic factors. Yanukovych’s administration is trying to renegotiate the extremely costly gas deal with Russia that Tymoshenko signed and for which she was sentenced. The agreement costs Ukraine millions of dollars in inflated gas prices at a time when Ukraine, facing an economic crisis, can least afford it. The conviction, which characterizes signing the agreement as a crime and an abuse of power, will strengthen Ukraine’s case to renegotiate the deal. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin appeared worried by this turn of events and called the guilty verdict “dangerous and counterproductive.”
The most likely scenario for the coming weeks is for President Yanukovych to support a quick change of the law, which would decriminalize Tymoshenko’s offense, leading to her release. Mr Yanukovych’s hope is that
“Mr Yanukovych has made it very difficult for Ukraine’s friends to help him” this will quiet the European criticism, and he will be able to carry on business as usual. That might not be the result. European leaders are unlikely to accept anything less than Tymoshenko’s swift release, the return of her full rights to political participation, and the cessation of any other trials of opposition leaders. That would be hard for Mr Yanukovych to do without losing face. ● Micha∏ Baranowski is a senior program officer with the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw Office.
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