COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS_REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS Comparative Analysis Between Scenarios
fact that Two of the Scenarios (4.2 and 5.2) real (inflation-adjusted) construction entail demolition of part (4.2) or all (5.2)
costs or other development costs, such as properties, in or nearby Downtown Austin.
The decision on whether and how
of the existing convention center facility.
architecture and engineering. They include Again, further details are in Appendix C.
to proceed with expanding Austin’s
Thus, in Scenario 4.1, a new convention
all development costs, including soft costs All of the expansion scenarios (save for
convention center is a complex one,
center building is built west of Trinity
(costs not directly related to physical
Scenario 5.1) incorporate private real
complex because there are so many
Street, while the existing facility remains,
construction). Note that it is possible that
estate whose value exceeds what currently
valuations using “comps,” or comparable
factors to consider simultaneously. In this for an increase of 273,000 leasable
not all of the estimated $75 million cost of exists on the western parcels (i.e., Scenario
section, some of the factors that can be
acquiring
1) but is less than what could ultimately
quantified numerically in the descriptions Scenario 4.2, some of the existing facility
the Western Parcels, nor the demolition
plausibly exist on the western parcels if left
of the scenarios above are summarized.
is demolished, even as a second new
costs, would be incurred directly,
to market forces (i.e., Scenario 2). Scenario
convention center building is built east of
depending on how a redevelopment plan
4.2 “backfills” the highest proportion of
The table below summarizes supply-side
Trinity Street, leaving a total net increase
is structured. For instance, the city may
private development value that would
factors. These are costs and benefits that
of 165,000 square feet of leasable space
elect to partner with the landowners of
accrue under Scenario 2 (i.e., $570 million
will accrue to Austin’s city government
over what exists today. From this row, it
the western parcels, in which case their
versus $1 billion).
and citizens as a direct consequence of
can be seen that Scenario 5.1 yields the
land value may be counted as an equity
a decision to undertake a given scenario
largest convention aggregated facilities,
contribution towards a public-private
Assuming a public entity owns the
over another. The first row of the table
with 5.2 close behind, Scenario 4.2 yields
partnership instead of a direct land
convention center facilities, as is the case
summarizes total convention center
the smallest, and Scenarios 3 and 4.1 are
sale to the city. A detailed methodology
now, those facilities would not owe any
square footage in each scenario. Square
in between.
and breakouts of the computations for
property taxes. Note that the computations
estimated development costs for the
(described in more detail in Appendix C)
square feet over what exists currently. In
footage refers to floor space (meeting space, exhibition halls, ballrooms, and
The second row summarizes the
various scenarios are included in
assume that in Scenario 3, even though the
auditoria) that is used for formal meeting
estimated costs that would be borne,
Appendix C.
private development would be “stacked” on
purposes during events. It also includes
likely by a public entity, to build
other types of internal space, such as
a convention center expansion,
top of publicly owned land, it pays property The bottom row in the supply-side
taxes. Depending on the exact details of
corridors and other “pre-meeting” spaces, excluding associated public spaces and
table shows the value of the private
the redevelopment, this may or may not
whose primary purpose is circulation
infrastructures (third row) as well as
development incorporated within
prove to be the case. As with the value of
or “back of house” or other supporting
demolition and land acquisition. These
the various scenarios at the time of
private development, Scenario 4.2 comes
functions that are essential but tangential costs are all expressed in 2018 dollars
completion if it were to exist today.
closest to replacing the opportunity cost of
to meetings. “Net increase” alludes to the and do not account for any changes in
We straightforwardly estimated these
property tax revenue flowing to the city that
FRAMEWORKS FOR PLACEMAKING _ ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR THE AUSTIN CONVENTION DISTRICT