DEMOCRATIC PEACE THEORY
DEMOCRATIC PEACE THEORY CHELSEA KEIRSNOWSKI The democratic peace theory stems from basic principles devised by philosopher Immanuel Kant in 1795 that were later researched substantially in the 1960s.1 The theory proposes that democracies, especially those older than 3 years, are unlikely to be involved in wars against each other.2 It has been recognised that longevity of governance from a political party within a state’s regime further decreases the likelihood of interstate conflict.3 This essay will analyse the democratic peace theory and examine how a current sway toward authoritarianism in world politics is likely to bring increased global conflict. The heightened risk of war is linked to the erosion of stabilising democratic frameworks which inhibit belligerence and the disruption caused by changes in regimes and policy. This is intensified by instability caused by COVID19 and the rejection of mainstream politics and interstate agreements that previously ensured peace through interdependence. A failure to ensure legitimacy and support through sufficient performance in authoritarian states, led to approximately 30 countries transitioning to democracy between 1974 and 1990, including the collapse of the Soviet Union and its occupied territories.4 Political scientist, Samuel P. Huntington, predicted this proliferation of democracy would not lead to world peace as each civilisation has their own culture that the population will choose to hold on to, rather than abandon for a different culture, such as by adopting a new way of living by becoming a democracy.5 He predicted these differences, such as the pressure initiated by the West on democratisation, and the retention by other civilisations of their culture, systems of rule and religion, will lead to conflict. Following Huntington’s hypothesis, circa 2007 began the rise of authoritarianism in South America and Africa, and growing support for populism in Eastern Europe. Reasons for this vary for each country but include a lack of repercussion without global governance, isolationism, and political and social instability.6 Recently, COVID-19 has accelerated the rise of authoritarianism. In some instances, there has been a genuine attempt to protect public health through decisive action and heightened regulations, however, some governments have profited from an opportunistic acquisition of power while global attention was preoccupied. The Democracy Index for 2020 showed democracy was in its worst state since the Index was developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2006.7 A developing 1
Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch (S. Sonnenschein, 1795); Dean Babst, ‘Elective Governments—A Force For Peace’ (1964) 3(1) The Wisconsin Sociologist 9, 9. 2 Spencer Weart, Never at War (Yale University Press, 1998). 3 Anais Marin, ‘Dictatorial peace? Comparing the conflict-proneness of authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet Eurasia: a research agenda’ (2015) 59 Research Gate 1, 18; Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, ‘Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War’ (2002) 56(2) International Organization 297. 4 Samuel Huntington, ‘Democracy’s Third Wave’ (1991) 2(2) Journal of Democracy 12, 12. 5 Samuel Huntington, ‘The Clash of Civilizations?’ (1993) 72(3) Foreign Affairs 22, 40-1. 6 Ivan Krastev, ‘Eastern Europe’s Illiberal Revolution’, Foreign Affairs (Article, May/June 2018) <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/hungary/2018-04-16/eastern-europes-illiberal-revolution>. 7 The Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘Global democracy has another bad year’, The Economist (Web Page, 22 January 2020) <https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/01/22/global-democracy-has-another-badyear>.
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