Figure II.1 The complex relationship between conflict over natural resources and climate change
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Source: United Nations Environment Programme/GRID-Arendal (2005).
Environmental stress has already been responsible for numerous internal conflicts, and climate change will only increase the strain on the environment, especially in developing regions (Raleigh, Jordan and Salehyan, 2008). Water scarcity is an example of such a threat, a case in point being the ongoing conflict in Darfur, which has been partially attributed to the persistent, worsening drought and the consequent shortage of fertile land (United Nations Environment Programme, 2009). Throughout Africa, almost all major river basins are transboundary
in nature, and any reduction in these water resources could raise tensions on the continent (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2007a). Many countries in Central and Southern Asia that depend on water originating outside their boundaries could be similarly affected (United Nations Environment Programme, 2008a). The picture painted by figure II.2 suggests that the potential for conflict linked to water resource availability is quite high in some regions.