Negative consequences As is the case in many of the other contexts described thus far, youth in developing countries—especially those in rural areas—are likely to feel the impact of climate change on their livelihoods sooner and more directly than will their peers in developed countries (see box II.2). The more socio-economically vulnerable regions include many communities that depend on the natural environment for their livelihoods, with employment concentrated in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. The effects of climate change on these sectors will vary, but the outlook is largely negative for the developing world as a whole (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007a; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2009b; 2009c). Agriculture is one of the largest and most important employment sectors, but it is also extremely vulnerable to climaterelated damage. In the short term, agricultural production is threatened by soil degradation and erosion, crop damage, and reduced harvests resulting from extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, severe storms, and floods—all of which are expected to occur with greater frequency and intensity. The situation may be exacerbated in the long term by the higher sustained temperatures and systemic water scarcity linked to climate change. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007b; International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 2009). The pressure climate change is exerting on traditional livelihood patterns will intensify throughout the lives of today’s young women and men if the agriculture sector continues to be the major source of employment in the developing world. At present, agriculture accounts for almost half of all employment in less developed countries (United Nations Development Programme, 2007). In Africa the majority of young people live in rural areas, where agriculture accounts for 65 per cent of total employment (World Bank, 2008a). In several Asian countries youth employment has largely shifted to industry or services, but agriculture remains a significant source of employment for young workers (Asian Development Bank, 2008).
Box II.2 Marjorie’s story: a Filipina shell fisher in warm waters Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, threatening the livelihoods of many young people who live in coastal and island environments in the developing world. Marjorie’s story is a prime example. Marjorie lives on the island of Zaragoza, just off the coast of Southern Cebu in the Philippines. The small island is inhabited by 300 families whose main occupation is fishing. As a result of rising water temperatures, fishermen on the island have had to work longer hours and go further out to sea in order to make ends meet. Some have had to resort to asking their children to help out. This is how Marjorie started fishing when she was in her early teens: One day, when I was 13, my mother asked me if I could start fishing more seriously, as if it were a job. … I was happy, because I had noticed the hard times we were going through, and I knew I could help to catch more fish. The problem was one year later, when my mother told me that things were worse and I had to leave school, so I could work more and save the costs of studying. … I really wanted to go [to school], because once I graduate I will be able to help my parents send my other siblings to school. Marjorie was able to convince her family that her work would not suffer if she were allowed to resume her education. She is back in school now, about to begin her second-to-last year of secondary studies, but she still has to work in order to help her family out and finance her education, often fishing through the night before sailing out to school at seven in the morning. I’m just so excited at the thought of finishing school. I was supposed to graduate two years ago, and now
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