Direct conflict deaths average 168,100 a year
2014). In 2012, two out of five people worldwide who died in battle were in Syria. In addition, deaths that result from conflict but are not directly due to fighting outnumber direct conflict deaths, in some countries by a rate of three to one. Most of these indirect deaths occur in lowincome countries, where vulnerable civilians are cut off from vital lifelines to immunization, child nutrition and clean water.
The number of deaths is one indicator for intensity or magnitude of a conflict. A generation of researchers has tried to establish reliable estimates of the number of people killed in conflict. Arriving at such estimates is especially complicated because conflicts are increasingly waged by non-State actors in remote areas and often in countries with institutions ill-equipped to accurately track casualties. Between 1989 and 2008, there were an estimated total 3,362,000 direct conflict deaths, or an average of 168,100 deaths per year (Garfield and Blore, 2009). Seventy-four per cent of direct conflict deaths between 1989 and 2008 occurred in Central Africa, East Africa, the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia. Since 2008, increasing conflict in the Middle East raised the total level of direct conflict deaths to more than 200,000 per year (Price et al.,
Other armed violence
Armed violence not associated with conflict also takes a heavy toll on lives. The Global Burden of Armed Violence in 2011 attempted to account for all deaths due to firearms recorded through civil systems in countries throughout the world, arriving at an estimate of 400,000 firearms-related deaths outside of conflict situations. Insecurity and fear of armed violence have been major drivers of displacement and migration in some countries in recent years, sparking a situation that resembles a humanitarian crisis.
MAJOR SOURCE COUNTRIES OF REFUGEES
Syrian Arab Republic Top 3
Afghanistan
53%*
Somalia
62%*
Sudan South Sudan
Top 10
Democratic Republic of the Congo
77%*
Myanmar Central African Republic Iraq Eritrea 0.0
0.5
1.0
* Reflects proportion out of global number of refugees at end-2014
CHAPTER 1
1.5
2.0 Millions
(UNHCR, 2015)
22
Top 5
A FRAG I LE WO RLD
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0