Global trends - implications for crisis risk
Climate Change
Poverty and inequality
Climate change is likely to increase crisis risk significantly as a result of
Persistence of extreme poverty or increases in inequality could result in
changes in weather and climate extremes, sea level rise and impacts
increased instability and resulting humanitarian need when combined
on water availability, ecosystems, agriculture and human health. These
with other factors. As of 2010, 1.22 billion people still live on less than
could lead to large-scale displacement and have adverse consequences
US$1.25 a day. Between 2005 and 2015, the proportion of people living
for human security and economic and trade systems. Impacts are
in extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease from 50.9% to
expected to multiply. Extreme precipitation events over mid-latitude
35.8% (388 million to 345 million). Africa’s share of global poverty will
and tropical regions will very likely become more intense and more
more than double from 28 to 60% between 2005 and 2015. By 2014,
frequent by 2100, contributing to increased flooding.
the proportion of the world’s poor living in fragile states will reach 50%.
Population growth
Urbanization
In 2013, the global population reached 7.2 billion. By 2050, it
The number of people living in urban areas will reach 6.3 billion by
is expected to reach 9.6 billion. Most of the growth will occur in
2050. Urban areas will absorb all the population growth expected
developing regions, which are projected to increase from 5.9 billion in
over the next four decades, while at the same time drawing in
2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050. The proportion of global population living
some of the rural population. Between 2010 and 2050, the urban
in current LDCs will increase to 27% by 2100. By 2050, the population
population will increase by 200% in Africa, and 100% in Asia. By
of the countries that have a Consolidated Humanitarian Appeal (CAP) in
2050, half of the people in LDCs will be living in urban areas.
2013 will have doubled. Countries where young adults comprise more than 40 per cent of the population were two and a half times more likely to experience a new outbreak of civil conflict in the 1990s.
Food security
Water security Between 1990 and 2010, two billion people gained access to improved drinking water sources. However, 11% of the global population, or 783 million people, are still without access to drinking water. Global water
One in eight people in the world are estimated to be suffering from
withdrawals have tripled in the last 50 years, but the reliable supply
chronic hunger. Africa remains the region with the highest prevalence
of water has stayed relatively constant. By 2030 it is projected that
of undernourishment, with more than one in five people hungry. By
47% of world population will be living in areas of high water stress. In
2050, global demand for food is expected to have increased by 70%.
developing countries, about 80% of illnesses are linked to poor water
High and volatile food and commodity prices over recent years have
and sanitation conditions.
exacerbated the food and nutrition insecurity of poor households.
Energy security
Health Non-communicable diseases are currently the leading cause of death
Global energy demand will rise by one-third between 2013 and 2035,
across the world - with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa. Four out of
with 90% of the increase coming from emerging economies. The
five deaths from non-communicable diseases occur in low and middle-
availability and affordability of energy is a critical element of economic
income countries. Thirty-four percent of all deaths are caused by
well-being. Recent energy price shocks have increased food insecurity
infectious disease, while deaths from war account for only 0.64 percent.
and poverty in developing countries. Energy price shocks tend to have
Neglected tropical diseases affect one billion people, normally in the
a stronger effect on poorer households.
poorest communities, with consequences of permanent disability, extreme pain and death.
Sources: FAO43, IEA44, IPCC45, UNDESA46, UNESCO47, UNWATER48, OECD49, Ravallion & Chen (2012)50, Vafeidis et al (2011)51, WHO/UNICEF52, World Bank53
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