typhoon ever recorded to hit land. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called it a “wake-up call.”28 Climate change is also leading to more food insecurity in regions such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, threatening the livelihoods of millions.29 These and other effects—such as sea-level rise—could lead to large-scale displacement, with serious adverse consequences for human security and economic and trade systems.30 High and volatile commodity prices may increase civil unrest. Food-price rises in 2007/8 led to protests in almost 50 countries (figure 7).31 In Yemen, food riots triggered violence that spread to the endemically poor southern region,32 and half the population now requires humanitarian assistance.33 High food prices were also seen as a precipitating condition for the so-called Arab spring.34 Environmental degradation, whether driven by climate change or other human activities, can increase crisis risk. Deforestation and desertification affect rainfall patterns, can lead to landslides and worsen the effects of flooding. Destruction of natural protection, such as mangroves, dunes and reefs, increases exposure to coastal hazards.35 Environmental degradation can make conflict more likely, as in Darfur and the Sahel.36 37
50 Number of countries that experienced food price protests in 2007-200838 Population growth is likely to play a role in future humanitarian crises. The number of people living in countries that issued an inter-agency humanitarian appeal in 2013 is expected almost to double by 2050, suggesting caseloads will increase.39 Countries where young adults comprise more than 40 per cent of the population are twice as likely to experience a new outbreak of civil conflict.40 If economies do not keep pace with populations, youth unemployment and underemployment (especially among unmarried males) could trigger social instability. Rapid and unplanned urbanization has been linked with an increased risk of civil conflict, as well as disaster risk. The urban population in countries that issued inter-agency humanitarian appeals in 2013 will increase by more than 250 per cent by 2050. Malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS are more likely to spread in urban centres with poor sanitation facilities and high population density.41 When combined, these factors have an even greater effect. For example, the combination of rapid urban growth, a youth increase and low per-capita availability of cropland and fresh water can increase a country’s risk of civil conflict.42 This was the case during ethnic clashes between Uzbeks and Kyrgyzs in Kyrgyzstan in 2010.
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