From response to anticipation The debate between business-as-usual or shifting to a model focused on anticipation and prevention is not new, but it is taking on increasing urgency. One example is the Sahel region of Africa, which has been called “ground zero”
for climate change.10 Recurrent droughts have affected the Sahel since the 1970s, each followed by an increase in people’s vulnerability. In 2005, 7 million Sahelians struggled to feed themselves. In 2010, that number rose to 10 million people, and in 2012 it grew to more than 18 million. Development indicators have slowly improved, but they remain among the worst of any region worldwide (figure 4).
Figure 4
Food crises and development indicators in the Sahel (source: OCHA, World Bank)
7
10
million
18
million
11
million
million
2012
2013
Food insecure
2005
1212
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Life expectancy
Under 5 mortality rate
Access to water
Access to sanitation
48 in 2000 53 in 2012
167 in 2000 127 in 2012
53% in 2000 61% in 2012
31% in 2000 30% in 2012