justify promoting such a move. Ocean shipping remains vital to the global economy and is far less carbon intensive than air freight (Hoen et al., 2010, Table 6), though it brings its own environmental burdens. In most coastal areas, slight changes in location can reduce flood risks substantially. Protective measures can be taken. There are hazards to be found in non-coastal areas as well. Movement away from the coast should ideally emerge out of a negotiation that takes these and many other considerations into account. Climate change does call into question policies that favour coastal areas, for example, by creating special economic zones in coastal areas, as the Chinese did from the 1970s to the 1990s (Demurger et al., 2002). However, from the perspective of this article, the major concern is how to prevent climate hazards and anti-urbanization policies from combining to place some of the most vulnerable urban dwellers in Africa and Asia at risk. If populations in poorer coastal cities are generally at greater risk because of a lack of protection, poorer groups in these cities are likely to be at still greater risk. The vulnerability of certain racial and economic groups to the flooding brought on by Hurricane Katrina, for instance, and the lack of assistance for them in the wake of the disaster, has been well documented (Craemer, 2010; Logan, 2006). This reflects a broader tendency for disadvantaged groups within cities to be both more exposed and more vulnerable to disasters (Satterthwaite et al., 2009). As Aromar Revi describes in relation to climate risks in Indian cities, risk is often more closely associated with vulnerability than with exposure, making it particularly important to consider the changing landscape of vulnerability, since this will determine how exposure is translated into risk (Revi, 2008). In the urban coastal cities of the global South, a key part of this vulnerability will be the changing political economy of land, informal settlements and “slums”, and how urbanization is handled. Flood plains and other exposed locations are, in a sense, “natural” sites for the informal settlements that characterize so much low-income housing in the global South (UN-HABITAT, 2003a). The land in these locations is comparatively unattractive because of the flood hazards, so prices are low. They can be particularly attractive in coastal cities, which tend to be long established and comparatively densely settled. Construction in flood plains may be formally prohibited, but informal development (instigated by occupiers or by developers) is only loosely controlled. Inhabitants may be well aware that there are flood hazards and, indeed, may have to cope with flooding several times a year, but still be willing to take a risk in return for an affordable and central location. It may not be impossible to estimate how many people live in such conditions, but the character of informal settlement suggests that it could be a major problem to do so. There is a growing literature on adaptation in coastal cities, including case studies in low-income countries (e.g., Awuor, Orindi, and Adwera, 2008; Dossou and GlehouenouDossou,2007). These case studies have begun to document the special difficulties that low-income coastal inhabitants face (for example, Douglas et al., 2008; Revi, 2008). There are also case studies demonstrating considerable scope for shifting people away from the more exposed areas of cities (for example, Kebede et al., 2012). For the most part, it is assumed that adaptation programmes will benefit the poorest groups most, as they are the most vulnerable. Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case. If programmes for adaptation to climate change focus narrowly on preventing settlement in exposed areas, there is a real danger that they will protect formal housing 30
The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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