CHAPTER
2
Fair and Effective Responses to Urbanization and Climate Change: Tapping Synergies and Avoiding Exclusionary Policies Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, George Martine and Cecilia Tacoli
Introduction Over the first half of this century, the urbanization level of Asia is expected to increase from about 37 to 64 per cent, while that of Africa is expected to grow from 36 per cent to 58 per cent (United Nations, 2012). Together with Asia’s overall increase in population from 3.7 to 5.2 billion and Africa’s from 0.8 billion to 2.0 billion, their combined urban population will increase by almost 2.9 billion, and by 2050 half of the people in the world will be living in the cities and urban towns of Africa and Asia–up from about a quarter in 2000. Despite considerable uncertainty in projections, this urban transition is bound to be among the most striking demographic trends of our time. Meanwhile, the effects of climate change are likely to increase. Despite even greater uncertainty as to its exact form and outcomes, climate change must be the most striking environmental trend of our time. The dominant view in scientific circles is that the negative impacts of climate change over the course of the century will be large but unevenly distributed both spatially and socially. The contributors to climate change are likely to remain concentrated in wealthier parts of the world, though some of the largest increases in emissions are apt to be in urbanizing and industrializing Asia. The worst impacts, however, are expected to be in relatively poor countries, including many in Africa and Asia that are experiencing rapid urban growth. The focus of this chapter is on how urbanization and climate trends will interact, how cities will react, how potentially vulnerable groups will be affected and the challenges that these changes pose to political equity and urban governance. Urban policy regimes already disadvantage many urban and rural dwellers, and their prospects could be further threatened by climate change. These groups are likely to be put at risk by physical hazards brought on by climate change, and in principle ought to be the key beneficiaries of climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, particularly if urban policy regimes become more exclusionary in response to climate change, they could end up doubly burdened—by climate change itself and by the inequitable responses to it. This chapter is structured around the shift in population from rural to urban settlements (i.e., urbanization), the location of receiving urban centres and population density 24
The De mogra ph y of Ada ptation to C l imate Ch ange
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